Development and assessment of a robust optimization metric for WAMPAC modeling

A PMU based WAMS is to be placed on a weakly coupled section of distribution grid, with high levels of distributed generation. In anticipation of PMU data a Siemens PSS/E model of the electrical environment has been used to return similar data to that expected from the WAMS. This data is then used to create a metric that reflects optimization, control and protection in the region. System states are iterated through with the most desirable one returning the lowest optimization metric, this state is assessed against the one returned by PSS/E under normal circumstances. This paper investigates the circumstances that trigger SPS in the region, through varying generation between 0 and 110% and compromising the network through line loss under summer minimum and winter maximum conditions. It is found that the optimized state can generally tolerate an additional 2 MW of generation (3% of total) before encroaching the same thresholds and in one instance moves the triggering to 100% of generation output.

Microstructural analysis of non-woven fabrics using scanning electron microscopy and image processing. Part 1:Development and verification of the methods

This paper reports image analysis methods that have been developed to study the microstructural changes of non-wovens made by the hydroentanglement process. The validity of the image processing techniques has been ascertained by applying them to test images with known properties. The parameters in preprocessing of the scanning electron microscope (SEM) images used in image processing have been tested and optimized. The fibre orientation distribution is estimated using fast Fourier transform (FFT) and Hough transform (HT) methods. The results obtained using these two methods are in good agreement. The HT method is more demanding in computational time compared with the Fourier transform (FT) method. However, the advantage of the HT method is that the actual orientation of the lines can be concluded directly from the result of the transform without the need for any further computation. The distribution of the length of the straight fibre segments of the fabrics is evaluated by the HT method. The effect of curl of the fibres on the result of this evaluation is shown.

Integrating petrography, mineralogy and hydrochemistry to constrain the influence and distribution of groundwater contributions to baseflow in poorly productive aquifers: Insights from Gortinlieve catchment, Co. Donegal, NW Ireland

Identifying groundwater contributions to baseflowforms an essential part of surfacewater body characterisation. The Gortinlieve catchment (5 km2) comprises a headwater stream network of the Carrigans River, itself a tributary of the River Foyle, NW Ireland. The bedrock comprises poorly productive metasediments that are characterised by fracture porosity. We present the findings of a multi-disciplinary study that integrates new hydrochemical and mineralogical investigations with existing hydraulic, geophysical and structural data to identify the scales of groundwater flow and the nature of groundwater/bedrock interaction (chemical denudation). At the catchment scale, the development of deep weathering profiles is controlled by NE-SW regional scale fracture zones associated with mountain building during the Grampian orogeny. In-situ chemical denudation of mineral phases is controlled by micro- to meso-scale fractures related to Alpine compression during Palaeocene to Oligocene times. The alteration of primary muscovite, chlorite (clinochlore) and albite along the surfaces of these small-scale fractures has resulted in the precipitation of illite, montmorillonite and illite/montmorillonite clay admixtures. The interconnected but discontinuous nature of these small-scale structures highlights the role of larger scale faults and fissures in the supply and transportation of weathering solutions to/from the sites of mineral weathering. The dissolution of primarily mineral phases releases the major ions Mg, Ca and HCO3 that are shown to subsequently formthe chemical makeup of groundwaters. Borehole groundwater and stream baseflow hydrochemical data are used to constrain the depths of groundwater flow pathways influencing the chemistry of surface waters throughout the stream profile. The results show that it is predominantly the lower part of the catchment, which receives inputs from catchment/regional scale groundwater flow, that is found to contribute to the maintenance of annual baseflow levels. This study identifies the importance
of deep groundwater in maintaining annual baseflow levels in poorly productive bedrock systems.

Chemistry and Distribution of Daughter Species in the Circumstellar Envelopes of O-Rich AGB Stars

Context. Thanks to the advent of Herschel and ALMA, new high-quality observations of molecules present in the circumstellar envelopes of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars are being reported that reveal large differences from the existing chemical models. New molecular data and more comprehensive models of the chemistry in circumstellar envelopes are now available.
Aims: The aims are to determine and study the important formation and destruction pathways in the envelopes of O-rich AGB stars and to provide more reliable predictions of abundances, column densities, and radial distributions for potentially detectable species with physical conditions applicable to the envelope surrounding IK Tau.
Methods: We use a large gas-phase chemical model of an AGB envelope including the effects of CO and N2 self-shielding in a spherical geometry and a newly compiled list of inner-circumstellar envelope parent species derived from detailed modeling and observations. We trace the dominant chemistry in the expanding envelope and investigate the chemistry as a probe for the physics of the AGB phase by studying variations of abundances with mass-loss rates and expansion velocities.
Results: We find a pattern of daughter molecules forming from the photodissociation products of parent species with contributions from ion-neutral abstraction and dissociative recombination. The chemistry in the outer zones differs from that in traditional PDRs in that photoionization of daughter species plays a significant role. With the proper treatment of self-shielding, the N → N2 and C+→ CO transitions are shifted outward by factors of 7 and 2, respectively, compared with earlier models. An upper limit on the abundance of CH4 as a parent species of (≲2.5 × 10-6 with respect to H2) is found for IK Tau, and several potentially observable molecules with relatively simple chemical links to other parent species are determined. The assumed stellar mass-loss rate, in particular, has an impact on the calculated abundances of cations and the peak-abundance radius of both cations and neutrals: as the mass-loss rate increases, the peak abundance of cations generally decreases and the peak-abundance radius of all species moves outwards. The effects of varying the envelope expansion velocity and cosmic-ray ionization rate are not as significant.

Development and Validation of a Procedure for Numerical Vibration Analysis of an Oscillating Wave Surge Converter

During extreme sea states so called impact events can be observed on the wave energy converter Oyster. In small scale experimental tests these impact events cause high frequency signals in the measured load which decrease confidence in the data obtained. These loads depend on the structural dynamics of the model. Amplification of the loads can occur and is transferred through the structure from the point of impact to the load cell located in the foundation. Since the determination of design data and load cases for Wave Energy Converters originate from scale experiments, this lack of confidence has a direct effect on the development.

Numerical vibration analysis is a valuable tool in the research of the structural load response of Oyster to impact events, but must take into account the effect of the surrounding water. This can be done efficiently by adding an added mass distribution, computed with a linearised potential boundary element method. This paper presents the development and validation of a numerical procedure, which couples the OpenSource boundary element code NEMOH with the Finite Element Analysis tool CodeAster. Numerical results of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the structure under the influence of added mass due to specific structural modes are compared with experimental results.

Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Components of resistance to Fusarium head blight in wheat detected in a seed germination assay with Microdochium majus and the relationship to FHB disease development and mycotoxin accumulation from Fusarium graminearum infection.

Components of partial disease resistance (PDR) to fusarium head blight (FHB), detected in a seed-germination assay, were compared with whole-plant FHB resistance of 30 USA soft red winter wheat entries in the 2002 Uniform Southern FHB Nursery. Highly significant (P <0·001) differences between cultivars in the in vitro seed-germination assay inoculated with Microdochium majus were correlated to FHB disease incidence (r = -0·41; P <0·05), severity (r = -0·47; P <0·01), FHB index (r = -0·46; P <0·01), damaged kernels (r = -0·52; P <0·01), grain deoxynivalenol (DON) concentration (r = -0·40; P <0·05) and incidence/severity/kernel-damage index (ISK) (r = -0·45; P <0·01) caused by Fusarium graminearum. Multiple linear regression analysis explained a greater percentage of variation in FHB resistance using the seed-germination assay and the previously reported detached-leaf assay PDR components as explanatory factors. Shorter incubation periods, longer latent periods, shorter lesion lengths in the detached-leaf assay and higher germination rates in the seed-germination assay were related to greater FHB resistance across all disease variables, collectively explaining 62% of variation for incidence, 49% for severity, 56% for F. graminearum-damaged kernels (FDK), 39% for DON and 59% for ISK index. Incubation period was most strongly related to disease incidence and the early stages of infection, while resistance detected in the seed germination assay and latent period were more strongly related to FHB disease severity. Resistance detected using the seed-germination assay was notable as it related to greater decline in the level of FDK and a smaller reduction in DON than would have been expected from the reduction in FHB disease assessed by visual symptoms.