Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

On the ability to metaphorize: Talking trees and singing tigers in the English classroom

This article reviews and discusses how metaphor as a trope has been regarded as an essential element in rhetorical approaches to reading and to writing. In addition it considers the extent to which, while metaphor-making is a fundamental cognitive capacity, a metaphorizing habit of mind may be especially pertinent to some aspects of aesthetic activity in English and it has salience also in a multimodal environment. There is exploration of how contemporary practice in the English classroom could accommodate and consolidate the ability to metaphorize.

Topological mappings between graphs, trees and generalized trees

We present novel topological mappings between graphs, trees and generalized trees that means between structured objects with different properties. The two major contributions of this paper are, first, to clarify the relation between graphs, trees and generalized trees, a graph class recently introduced. Second, these transformations provide a unique opportunity to transform structured objects into a representation that might be beneficial for a processing, e.g., by machine learning techniques for graph classification. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia

It is commonly believed that trees were absent in Scandinavia during the last glaciation and first recolonized the Scandinavian Peninsula with the retreat of its ice sheet some 9000 years ago. Here, we show the presence of a rare mitochondrial DNA haplotype of spruce that appears unique to Scandinavia and with its highest frequency to the west—an area believed to sustain ice-free refugia during most of the last ice age. We further show the survival of DNA from this haplotype in lake sediments and pollen of Trøndelag in central Norway dating back ~10,300 years and chloroplast DNA of pine and spruce in lake sediments adjacent to the ice-free Andøya refugium in northwestern Norway as early as ~22,000 and 17,700 years ago, respectively. Our findings imply that conifer trees survived in ice-free refugia of Scandinavia during the last glaciation, challenging current views on survival and spread of trees as a response to climate changes.

Sequence analysis of the 3' hypoxia-responsive element of the human erythropoietin gene in patients with erythrocytosis

Erythrocytosis arises from a variety of pathogenic mechanisms. We sequenced a 256-bp region 3' to the erythropoietin (Epo) gene which included a 24- to 50-bp minimal hypoxia-responsive element spanning HIF-1- and HNF-4-binding sites in 12 patients with erythrocytosis and 4 normal subjects. Four polymorphisms were found, none of which affected the HIF-1-binding site, although one polymorphism was present in the HNF-4 consensus region. The data indicate that none of these polymorphisms cause erythrocytosis.

Minimal Hilbert series for quadratic algebras and the Anick conjecture

We study the question on whether the famous Golod–Shafarevich estimate, which gives a lower bound for the Hilbert series of a (noncommutative) algebra, is attained. This question was considered by Anick in his 1983 paper ‘Generic algebras and CW-complexes’, Princeton Univ. Press, where he proved that the estimate is attained for the number of quadratic relations $d\leq n^2/4$
and $d\geq n^2/2$, and conjectured that it is the case for any number of quadratic relations. The particular point where the number of relations is equal to $n(n-1)/2$ was addressed by Vershik. He conjectured that a generic algebra with this number of relations is finite dimensional. We announce here the result that over any infinite field, the Anick conjecture holds for $d \geq 4(n2+n)/9$ and an arbitrary number of generators. We also discuss the result that confirms the Vershik conjecture over any field of characteristic 0, and a series of related
asymptotic results.

Finite dimensional semigroup quadratic algebras with the minimal number of relations

A quadratic semigroup algebra is an algebra over a field given by the generators x_1, . . . , x_n and a finite set of quadratic relations each of which either has the shape x_j x_k = 0 or the shape x_j x_k = x_l x_m . We prove that a quadratic semigroup algebra given by n generators and d=(n^2+n)/4 relations is always infinite dimensional. This strengthens the Golod–Shafarevich estimate for the above class of algebras. Our main result however is that for every n, there is a finite dimensional quadratic semigroup algebra with n generators and d_n relations, where d_n is the first integer greater than (n^2+n)/4 . That is, the above Golod–Shafarevich-type estimate for semigroup algebras is sharp.

A complete analytic theory for structure and dynamics of populations and communities spanning wide ranges in body size

The prediction and management of ecosystem responses to global environmental change would profit from a clearer understanding of the mechanisms determining the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. The analytic theory presented here develops a causally closed picture for the mechanisms controlling community and population size structure, in particular community size spectra, and their dynamic responses to perturbations, with emphasis on marine ecosystems. Important implications are summarised in non-technical form. These include the identification of three different responses of community size spectra to size-specific pressures (of which one is the classical trophic cascade), an explanation for the observed slow recovery of fish communities from exploitation, and clarification of the mechanism controlling predation mortality rates. The theory builds on a community model that describes trophic interactions among size-structured populations and explicitly represents the full life cycles of species. An approximate time-dependent analytic solution of the model is obtained by coarse graining over maturation body sizes to obtain a simple description of the model steady state, linearising near the steady state, and then eliminating intraspecific size structure by means of the quasi-neutral approximation. The result is a convolution equation for trophic interactions among species of different maturation body sizes, which is solved analytically using a novel technique based on a multiscale expansion.

Response to Comment on "Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia"

Birks et al. question our proposition that trees survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Northern Scandinavia. We dispute their interpretation of our modern genetic data but agree that more work is required. Our field and laboratory procedures were robust; contamination is an unlikely explanation of our results. Their description of Endletvatn as ice-covered and inundated during the LGM is inconsistent with recent geological literature.

Haplotypes spanning SPEC2, PDZ-GEF2 and ACSL6 genes are associated with schizophrenia

Chromosome 5q22-33 is a region where studies have repeatedly found evidence for linkage to schizophrenia. In this report, we took a stepwise approach to systematically map this region in the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF, 267 families, 1337 subjects) sample. We typed 289 SNPs in the critical interval of 8 million basepairs and found a 758 kb interval coding for the SPEC2/PDZ-GEF2/ACSL6 genes to be associated with the disease. Using sex and genotype-conditioned transmission disequilibrium test analyses, we found that 19 of the 24 typed markers were associated with the disease and the associations were sex-specific. We replicated these findings with an Irish case-control sample (657 cases and 414 controls), an Irish parent-proband trio sample (187 families, 564 subjects), a German nuclear family sample (211 families, 751 subjects) and a Pittsburgh nuclear family sample (247 families, 729 subjects). In all four samples, we replicated the sex-specific associations at the levels of both individual markers and haplotypes using sex- and genotype-conditioned analyses. Three risk haplotypes were identified in the five samples, and each haplotype was found in at least two samples. Consistent with the discovery of multiple estrogen-response elements in this region, our data showed that the impact of these haplotypes on risk for schizophrenia differed in males and females. From these data, we concluded that haplotypes underlying the SPEC2/PDZ-GEF2/ACSL6 region are associated with schizophrenia. However, due to the extended high LD in this region, we were unable to distinguish whether the association signals came from one or more of these genes.

Establishing optimal quantitative-polymerase chain reaction assays for routine diagnosis and tracking of minimal residual disease in JAK2-V617F-associated myeloproliferative neoplasms:a joint European LeukemiaNet/MPN&MPNr-EuroNet (COST action BM0902) study

Reliable detection of JAK2-V617F is critical for accurate diagnosis of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs); in addition, sensitive mutation-specific assays can be applied to monitor disease response. However, there has been no consistent approach to JAK2-V617F detection, with assays varying markedly in performance, affecting clinical utility. Therefore, we established a network of 12 laboratories from seven countries to systematically evaluate nine different DNA-based quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays, including those in widespread clinical use. Seven quality control rounds involving over 21,500 qPCR reactions were undertaken using centrally distributed cell line dilutions and plasmid controls. The two best-performing assays were tested on normal blood samples (n=100) to evaluate assay specificity, followed by analysis of serial samples from 28 patients transplanted for JAK2-V617F-positive disease. The most sensitive assay, which performed consistently across a range of qPCR platforms, predicted outcome following transplant, with the mutant allele detected a median of 22 weeks (range 6-85 weeks) before relapse. Four of seven patients achieved molecular remission following donor lymphocyte infusion, indicative of a graft vs MPN effect. This study has established a robust, reliable assay for sensitive JAK2-V617F detection, suitable for assessing response in clinical trials, predicting outcome and guiding management of patients undergoing allogeneic transplant.