The role of previous experience and attitudes toward statistics in statistics assessment outcomes among undergraduate psychology students

Previous research has demonstrated that students’ cognitions about statistics are related to their performance in statistics assessments. The purpose of this research is to examine the nature of the relationships between undergraduate psychology students’ previous experiences of maths, statistics and computing; their attitudes toward statistics; and assessment on a statistics course. Of the variables examined, the strongest predictor of assessment outcome was students’ attitude about their intellectual knowledge and skills in relation to statistics at the end of the statistics curriculum. This attitude was related to students’ perceptions of their maths ability at the beginning of the statistics curriculum. Interventions could be designed to change such attitudes with the aim of improving students’ learning of statistics.

Avoidance of filial cannibalism in the amphipod Gammarus pulex.

Adult animals that cannibalise juvenile conspecifics may gain energy but also risk filial cannibalism, that is, consumption of their own offspring. However, individuals vary in the magnitude of the costs and benefits of cannibalism depending on factors such as their current energy reserves or the probability that they have offspring in the vicinity. They may therefore also vary in the extent to which they participate in cannibalism. This study investigated whether the sex or brooding status of adult amphipods (Gammarus pulex) influenced whether they participated in cannibalism of juveniles. For females carrying embryos within their brood pouch, we also investigated two hypotheses to explain the presence or absence of cannibalistic behaviour by determining whether cannibalism was correlated with factors that might reflect energy demands (body length, brood size), or that might reflect a temporal change in cannibalistic behaviour (corresponding to stage of brood development). All reproductive classes of adults participated in some level of juvenile cannibalism, but females carrying offspring at an advanced stage of development (close to emergence from the brood pouch) consumed significantly fewer juveniles than other groups. Females thus appear to significantly reduce cannibalism of juveniles concurrent with the time when their own eggs are hatching within the brood pouch, prior to the release of their offspring. Because the experiment tested female responses to unfamiliar juveniles, this reflects a temporal change in behaviour rather than a response to phenotypic recognition cues, although additional direct recognition cannot be ruled out. Brooding females with large brood sizes or large body lengths, which might have disproportionately greater energetic demands, were not more likely to cannibalise juveniles. We also noted that juveniles that survived in trials where cannibalism occurred were significantly more likely to be found at the water surface, suggesting a possible adaptation to escape cannibalistic adults. Overall, our results provide evidence that amphipods use indirect temporal cues to avoid filial cannibalism.

Evidence for on-line visual guidance during saccadic gaze shifts.

Rapid orientating movements of the eyes are believed to be controlled ballistically. The mechanism underlying this control is thought to involve a comparison between the desired displacement of the eye and an estimate of its actual position (obtained from the integration of the eye velocity signal). This study shows, however, that under certain circumstances fast gaze movements may be controlled quite differently and may involve mechanisms which use visual information to guide movements prospectively. Subjects were required to make large gaze shifts in yaw towards a target whose location and motion were unknown prior to movement onset. Six of those tested demonstrated remarkable accuracy when making gaze shifts towards a target that appeared during their ongoing movement. In fact their level of accuracy was not significantly different from that shown when they performed a 'remembered' gaze shift to a known stationary target (F-3,F-15 = 0.15, p > 0.05). The lack of a stereotypical relationship between the skew of the gaze velocity profile and movement duration indicates that on-line modifications were being made. It is suggested that a fast route from the retina to the superior colliculus could account for this behaviour and that models of oculomotor control need to be updated.

Network formation under mutual consent and costly communication

We consider two different approaches to describe the formation of social networks under mutual consent and costly communication. First, we consider a network-based approach; in particular Jackson–Wolinsky’s concept of pairwise stability. Next, we discuss a non-cooperative game-theoretic approach, through a refinement of the Nash equilibria of Myerson’s consent game. This refinement, denoted as monadic stability, describes myopically forward looking behavior of the players. We show through an equivalence that the class of monadically stable networks is a strict subset of the class of pairwise stable networks that can be characterized fully by modifications of the properties defining pairwise stability.

Incorporating Higher Moments into Value at Risk Forecasting

Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the standard normal distribution with the first four moments, which are allowed to vary over time. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the GCE approach to other models of VaR forecasting and conclude that it provides accurate and robust estimates of the realized VaR. In spite of its simplicity, on our dataset GCE outperforms other estimates that are generated by both constant and time-varying higher-moments models.

Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

Corrigendum Vol. 30, Issue 2, 259, Article first published online: 15 MAR 2009 to correct the order of authors names: Bu R., K. Hadri, and B. McCabe.

Labor unions and Nash bargaining using coalition formation games

In this paper we examine the properties of stable coalitions under sequential and simultaneous bargaining by competing labor unions. We do this using the Nash bargaining solution and various notions of stability, namely, Nash, coalitional, contractual and core stability. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,