Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Psychotic symptoms in Alzheimer's disease are not influenced by polymorphic variation at the dopamine receptor DRD3 gene

It has been suggested that genetic influences unmasked during neurodevelopment to produce schizophrenia may appear throughout neurodegeneration to produce AD plus psychosis. Risk of schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer's disease (AD) has been linked to polymorphic variation at the dopamine receptor DRD3 gene implying similar causative mechanisms. We tested this association in a large cohort of Alzheimer's disease patients with a diagnosis of probable AD of 3 years or more duration from the relatively genetically homogenous Northern Irish population. We assessed relationships between genotypes/alleles of the DRD3 BalI polymorphism and the presence or absence of psychotic symptoms (delusions, hallucinations) in AD patients during the month prior to interview and at any stage during the dementia. No significant associations were found when delusions and hallucinations were cross-tabulated against S and G alleles and SS, SG and GG genotypes. Logistic regression failed to detect any influence of APOE, gender, family history or prior psychiatric history. In conclusion, we were unable to confirm previously reported associations between the DRD3 BalI polymorphism and psychotic symptoms in AD.

Perceptions of stressful life events in Northern Irish school children: a longitudinal study.

Adults’ perceptions of stressful life events have been acknowledged as important moderators of the stress adjustment relationship. Until recently, however, there has been a lack of research on children's perceptions of negative life events. This study assesses children's own perceptions of the stressfulness of negative familial, academic and social events as well as events related to the political conflict in Northern Ireland. Method: Developmental changes in children's perceptions of events are traced over time. One hundred and sixty 8-year-old children completed a self-report measure of the perceived stressfulness of a range of negative life events. The sample was drawn from schools in the Greater Belfast area to include children of both genders, primary religious affiliations in Northern Ireland (i.e., Protestant and Roman Catholic) and of varying socio-economic status. Three years later, 113 of these children, then aged 11, were traced through the school system and completed the same measure. Results: Children's perceptions of stressful events are related to a host of social factors. Girls viewed many negative events as more stressful than their male counterparts. Roman Catholic and Protestant children differed in their perceptions of conflict-related events. Perceptions of various types of negative experiences were differentially related to socio-economic status and age. Conclusion: Personal, social and situational factors differentially determine children's perceptions of negative life experiences.

Do Total and High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Triglycerides Act Independently in the Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease? Ten-Year Follow-Up of Caerphilly and Speedwell Cohorts

Several studies have suggested that men with raised plasma triglycerides (TGs) in combination with adverse levels of other lipids may be at special risk of subsequent ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined the independent and combined effects of plasma lipids at 10 years of follow-up. We measured fasting TGs, total cholesterol (TC), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) in 4362 men (aged 45 to 63 years) from 2 study populations and reexamined them at intervals during a 10-year follow-up. Major IHD events (death from IHD, clinical myocardial infarction, or ECG-defined myocardial infarction) were recorded. Five hundred thirty-three major IHD events occurred. All 3 lipids were strongly and independently predictive of IHD after 10 years of follow-up. Subjects were then divided into 27 groups (ie, 33) by the tertiles of TGs, TC, and HDLC. The number of events observed in each group was compared with that predicted by a logistic regression model, which included terms for the 3 lipids (without interactions) and potential confounding variables. The incidence of IHD was 22.6% in the group with the lipid risk factor combination with the highest expected risk (high TGs, high TC, and low HDLC) and 4.7% in the group with the lowest expected risk (P

Wide Variation in Adenoma Detection Rates at Screening Flexible Sigmoidoscopy

Background & Aims: Wide between-center variation in adenoma detection rates (ADRs) was observed in the U.K. Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial (overall, 12.1%; range, 8.6%-15.9%; P <0.0001). The aim of this study was to determine whether the observed differences could be attributed to varying performance by endoscopists, to examine the effect of experience on performance, and to identify an attainable, standard ADR to which endoscopists could aspire. 

Methods: Thirteen medical endoscopists, one per trial center, each performed about 3000 examinations (200 per month) using the same equipment and protocol. Overall and monthly ADRs were compared using multivariable logistic regression. 

Results: Differences in ADRs were not explained by patient characteristics, incidence of colorectal cancer in the local population, or the endoscopists' medical specialty or previous experience. Average ADRs increased significantly with screening experience (up to 400 examinations). Endoscopists were classified as higher, intermediate, or lower adenoma detectors, and performance levels were maintained over time. Higher detectors had ADRs of 15% overall (men, 20%; women, 10%) and also detected more adenomas per case (higher/lower detectors, 21.7/10.4 adenomas per :100 examinations). 

Conclusions: The differences in ADRs were due to variation in performance of the endoscopists. Long-term follow-up will determine whether this variation is clinically important. We suggest that the standards in higher detecting centers should be achievable by all endoscopists screening unscreened populations aged older than 55 years. Endoscopists should aim to stay above the lower 95% confidence interval band for 200 examinations (10% overall; 5% in women, 15% in men).

An 8000-year history of landscape, climate and copper exploitation in the Middle East: the Wadi Faynan and the Wadi Dana National Reserve in southern Jordan

Investigations of geomorphology, geoarchaeology, pollen, palynofacies, and charcoal indicate the comparative scales and significance of palaeoenvironmental changes throughout the Holocene at the junction between the hyper-arid hot Wadi â??Arabah desert and the front of the Mediterranean-belt Mountains of Edom in southern Jordan through a series of climatic changes and episodes of intense mining and smelting of copper ores. Early Holocene alluviation followed the impact of Neolithic grazers but climate drove fluvial geomorphic change in the Late Holocene, with a major arid episode corresponding chronologically with the â??Little Ice Ageâ?? causing widespread alluviation. The harvesting of wood for charcoal may have been sufficiently intense and widespread to affect the capacity of intensively harvested tree species to respond to a period of greater precipitation deduced for the Roman-Byzantine period - a property that affects both taphonomic and biogeographical bases for the interpretation of palynological evidence from arid-lands with substantial industrial histories. Studies of palynofacies have provided a record of human and climatic causes of soil erosion, and the changing intensity of the use of fire over time. The patterns of vegetational, climatic change and geomorphic changes are set out for this area for the last 8000 years.

Assessment of data quality in a multi-centre cross-sectional study of participation and quality of life of children with cerebral palsy

Background: SPARCLE is a cross-sectional survey in nine European regions, examining the relationship of the environment of children with cerebral palsy to their participation and quality of life. The objective of this report is to assess data quality, in particular heterogeneity between regions, family and item non-response and potential for bias. Methods: 1,174 children aged 8–12 years were selected from eight population-based registers of children with cerebral palsy; one further centre recruited 75 children from multiple sources. Families were visited by trained researchers who administered psychometric questionnaires. Logistic regression was used to assess factors related to family non-response and self-completion of questionnaires by children. Results: 431/1,174 (37%) families identified from registers did not respond: 146 (12%) were not traced; of the 1,028 traced families, 250 (24%) declined to participate and 35 (3%) were not approached. Families whose disabled children could walk unaided were more likely to decline to participate. 818 children entered the study of which 500 (61%) self-reported their quality of life; children with low IQ, seizures or inability to walk were less likely to self-report. There was substantial heterogeneity between regions in response rates and socio-demographic characteristics of families but not in age or gender of children. Item non-response was 2% for children and ranged from 0.4% to 5% for questionnaires completed by parents. Conclusion: While the proportion of untraced families was higher than in similar surveys, the refusal rate was comparable. To reduce bias, all analyses should allow for region, walking ability, age and socio-demographic characteristics. The 75 children in the region without a population based register are unlikely to introduce bias

Association between polymorphism in regulatory region of gene encoding tumour necrosis factor alpha and risk of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Deposition of beta-amyloid in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease is thought to precede a chain of events that leads to an inflammatory response by the brain. We postulated that genetic variation in the regulatory region of the gene for the proinflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) leads to increased risk of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. METHODS: A polymorphism in the regulatory region of the TNF-alpha gene was analysed in a case-control study. The polymorphism (C-850T) was typed in 242 patients with sporadic Alzheimer's disease, 81 patients with vascular dementia, 61 stroke patients without dementia, and 235 normal controls. These groups of individuals were also genotyped for the apolipoprotein E polymorphism, and the vascular dementia and stroke groups were typed at the HLA-DR locus. FINDINGS: The distribution of TNF-alpha genotypes in the vascular dementia group differed significantly from that in the stroke and normal control groups, giving an odds ratio of 2.51 (95% CI 1.49-4.21) for the development of vascular dementia for individuals with a CT or TT genotype. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the possession of the T allele significantly increased the risk of Alzheimer's disease associated with carriage of the apolipoprotein E epsilon4 allele (odds ratio 2.73 [1.68-4.44] for those with apolipoprotein E epsilon4 but no TNF-alpha T, vs 4.62 [2.38-8.96] for those with apolipoprotein E epsilon4 and TNF-alpha T; p=0.03). INTERPRETATION: Possession of the TNF-alpha T allele significantly increases the risk of vascular dementia, and increases the risk of Alzheimer's disease associated with apolipoprotein E. Although further research is needed, these findings suggest a potential role for anti-inflammatory therapy in vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease, and perhaps especially in patients who have had a stroke.

Unlinked vital events in census-based longitudinal studies can bias subsequent analysis

Objective: To examine the potential biases arising from the nonlinkage of census records and vital events in longitudinal studies.
Study Design and Setting: A total of 56,396 deaths of residents of Northern Ireland in the 4 years after the 2001 Census were linked to the 2001 Census records. The characteristics of matched and nonmatched death records were compared using multivariate logistic regression. Subject attributes were as recorded on the death certificate.
Results: In total, 3,392 (6.0%) deaths could not be linked to a census record. Linkage rates were lowest in young adults, males, the unmarried, people living in communal establishments, or living in areas that were more deprived or had recorded low census enumeration. For those aged less than 65 years at census, this linkage would exclude from analysis 20.2% of suicides and 19.7% of deaths by external causes.
Conclusion: The nonlinkage of census and death records is a combination of nonenumeration at census and deficient information about the deceased recorded at the time of death. Unmatched individuals may have been more disadvantaged or socially isolated, and analysis based on the linked data set may therefore show some bias and perhaps understate true social gradients.

Designs and designers of medieval ‘new towns’ in Wales

Medieval 'new towns' seem to echo Roman towns in having a grid of streets associated with a fortress, and have often been credited with a standard plan applied by the hand of authority. Here the authors analyse the new towns founded by Edward I in Wales and find some highly significant variations. Rediscovering the original layouts by high precision survey and GIS mapping, they show that some towns, founded at the same time and on similar topography, had quite different layouts, while others, founded at long intervals, had plans that were almost identical. Documentation hints at the explanation: it was the architects, masons and ditch-diggers, not the king and aristocracy, who established and developed these blueprints of urban life.

Psychological problems in children with cerebral palsy: A cross-sectional European study

Objectives: To describe psychological symptoms in 8–12-year-old children with cerebral palsy; to investigate predictors of these symptoms and their impact on the child and family.

Design: A cross-sectional multi-centre survey.

Participants: Eight hundred and eighteen children with cerebral palsy, aged 8–12 years, identified from population-based registers of cerebral palsy in eight European regions and from multiple sources in one further region.

Main outcome measures: The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ)P4-16 and the Total Difficulties Score (TDS) dichotomised into normal/borderline (TDS = 16) versus abnormal (TDS > 16).

Statistical analysis: Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression to relate the presence of psychological symptoms to child and family characteristics.

Results: About a quarter of the children had TDS > 16 indicating significant psychological symptoms, most commonly in the domain Peer Problems. Better gross motor function, poorer intellect, more pain, having a disabled or ill sibling and living in a town were independently associated with TDS > 16. The risk of TDS > 16 was odds ratio (OR) = .2 (95% CI: .1 to .3) comparing children with the most and least severe functional limitations; OR = 3.2 (95%CI: 2.1 to 4.8) comparing children with IQ < 70 and others; OR = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.5 to 4.6) comparing children in severe pain and others; OR = 2.7 (95% CI:1.6 to 4.6) comparing children with another disabled sibling or OR = 1.8 (95%CI: 1.2 to 2.8) no siblings and others; OR = 1.8 (95% CI: 1.1 to 2.8) comparing children resident in a town and others. Among parents who reported their child to have psychological problems, 95% said they had lasted over a year, 37% said they distressed their child and 42% said they burdened the family at least ‘quite a lot’.

Conclusions: A significant proportion of children with cerebral palsy have psychological symptoms or social impairment sufficiently severe to warrant referral to specialist services. Care must be taken in the assessment and management of children with cerebral palsy to ensure psychological problems are not overlooked and potentially preventable risk factors like pain are treated effectively. The validity of the SDQ for children with severe disability warrants further assessment.

Antioxidants and periodontitis in 60-70 year- old men

Objective: The aim was to investigate the association between periodontal health and the serum levels of various antioxidants including carotenoids, retinol and vitamin E in a homogenous group of Western European men.
Materials and Methods: A representative sample of 1258 men aged 60-70 years, drawn from the population of Northern Ireland, was examined between 2001 and 2003. Each participant had six or more teeth, completed a questionnaire and underwent a clinical periodontal examination. Serum lipid-soluble antioxidant levels were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography with diode array detection. Multivariable analysis was carried out using logistic regression with adjustment for possible confounders. Models were constructed using two measures of periodontal status (low- and high-threshold periodontitis) as dependent variables and the fifths of each antioxidant as a predictor variable.
Results: The levels of a- and ß-carotene, ß-cryptoxanthin and zeaxanthin were highly significantly lower in the men with low-threshold periodontitis (p<0.001). These carotenoids were also significantly lower in high-threshold periodontitis. There were no significant differences in the levels of lutein, lycopene, a- and ?-tocopherol or retinol in relation to periodontitis. In fully adjusted models, there was an inverse relationship between a number of carotenoids (a- and ß-carotene and ß-cryptoxanthin) and low-threshold periodontitis. ß-Carotene and ß-cryptoxanthin were the only antioxidants that were associated with an increased risk of high-threshold severe periodontitis. The adjusted odds ratio for high-threshold periodontitis in the lowest fifth relative to the highest fifth of ß-cryptoxanthin was 4.02 (p=0.003).
Conclusion: It is concluded that low serum levels of a number of carotenoids, in particular beta-cryptoxanthin and beta-carotene, were associated with an increased prevalence of periodontitis in this homogenous group of 60-70-year-old Western European men.