Deciding between accounts of the selection task: A reply to Oaksford (2002)

In this paper we report on our attempts to fit the optimal data selection (ODS) model (Oaksford Chater, 1994; Oaksford, Chater, & Larkin, 2000) to the selection task data reported in Feeney and Handley (2000) and Handley, Feeney, and Harper (2002). Although Oaksford (2002b) reports good fits to the data described in Feeney and Handley (2000), the model does not adequately capture the data described in Handley et al. (2002). Furthermore, across all six of the experiments modelled here, the ODS model does not predict participants' behaviour at the level of selection rates for individual cards. Finally, when people's probability estimates are used in the modelling exercise, the model adequately captures only I out of 18 conditions described in Handley et al. We discuss the implications of these results for models of the selection task and claim that they support deductive, rather than probabilistic, accounts of the task.

First records of oceanic dive profiles for leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea, indicate behavioural plasticity associated with long-distance migration

We used Satellite Relay Data Loggers to obtain the first dive profiles for critically endangered leatherback turtles outside the nesting season. As individuals moved from the Caribbean out into the Atlantic, key aspects of their diving behaviour changed markedly, in line with theoretical predictions for how dive duration should vary with foraging success. In particular, in the Atlantic, where foraging success is expected to be higher, dives became much longer than in the Caribbean. The deepest-ever dive profile recorded for a reptile was obtained in the oceanic Atlantic, with a 54-min dive to 626 m on 26 August 2002. However, dives were typically much shallower (generally

Cheap and expensive alternatives in stated choice experiments: are they equally considered by respondents?

When analysing choice experiments respondents are assumed to attend all attributes and alternatives in the same way. However, because of the important role that the price of the alternatives can play in the decision-making process, the level of price of a specific alternative may have consequences on the level of consideration given to the remaining attributes of the alternative. In this article, we propose the use of a discrete mixtures logit approach to accommodate respondents ignoring alternatives in stated choice experiments. Our results indicate a higher propensity for respondents to ignore attributes when they face cheap rather than expensive alternatives. We also find that allowing for this leads to substantial improvements in the model performance.

The removal of patients who live outside the practice boundary:a study of outside-area removals in Northern Ireland in 2001-2002

It has been suggested that there are significant overlaps between removals due to deregistration and removals arising because patients live outside the practice area. If this is true, it would mean that the current estimates of deregistration would need to be revised upwards. All outside-area removals for the calendar years 2001 and 2002 were reviewed and characterised by age, sex and Jarman score of the enumeration district of the patients' residence and distance from the practice. The average outside-area removal rate was just over one removal per practice per year. Removal rates were highest between the ages of 18 and 44 years; there were no significant differences between the sexes. Rates of removal increased exponentially with distance, although even at marked distances from the practice there were about 10 patients remaining on the list for each one removed. Residents in deprived areas were more likely to be removed, although because areas most distal to the practice tend to be affluent, overall there was a predominance of affluent patients among those who are removed. In Northern Ireland rates of outside-area removal are only slightly higher than those of deregistration. It is evident that GPs are exercising some discretion as to which of the outside-area patients they retain on their list. This has the potential to cause some misunderstanding and resentment among patients, as has been reported previously.

Smart meter devices and the effect of feedback on residential electricity consumption: Evidence from a natural experiment in Northern Ireland

Using a unique set of data and exploiting a large-scale natural experiment, we estimate the effect of real-time usage information on residential electricity consumption in Northern Ireland. Starting in April 2002, the utility replaced prepayment meters with advanced meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real-time. We rely on this event, account for the endogeneity of price and payment plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term, and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of 11-17%. We find that the reduction is robust to different specifications, selection-bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data. The advanced metering program delivers reasonably cost-effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, even under the most conservative usage reduction scenarios.

Enacting National Concerns: Accounts of the 2002 Golden Jubilee

Although the study of national identity in social psychology has examined the various ways in which the national group is ‘imagined’, little attention has been paid to the many collective national commemorations, celebrations and rituals of state assumed to unite the nation. This is surprising given the number of celebrations and commemorations which fill the calendars of modern nations
throughout the world and which are assumed by social scientists to play some part in the reproduction of the national community. Taking the British Royal Golden Jubilee celebrations of 2002, the present study examines how understandings of Anglo-British national identity are manifest in conversational
interviews during and after these events. In line with previous examinations of Anglo-Britishness, our respondents typically resisted imagining the national community as a homogenous whole and distanced themselves from depictions of the Jubilee as a nationalistic event. Support for the Jubilee was contingent upon the event being apolitical and inclusive.We suggest that such collective
national events could potentially facilitate ways of imagining the national community in terms of diversity and inclusivity rather than homogeneity and exclusivity.

Modelling the Performance of Irish Credit Unions, 2002 to 2010

This study undertakes a modeling based performance assessment of all Irish credit unions between 2002 and 2010, a particularly turbulent period in their history. The analysis explicitly addresses the current challenges faced by credit unions in that the modeling approach used rewards credit unions for reducing undesirable outputs (impaired loans and investments) as well as for increasing desirable outputs (loans, earning assets and members’ funds) and decreasing inputs (labour expenditure, capital expenditure and fund expenses). The main findings are: credit unions are subject to increasing returns to scale; technical regression occurred in the years after 2007; there is significant scope for an improvement in efficiency through expansion of desirable outputs and contraction of undesirable outputs and inputs; and that larger credit unions, that are better capitalised and pay a higher dividend to members are more efficient than their smaller, less capitalised, and lower dividend paying counterparts.