Less of a Puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

The Galactic metallicity gradient

We have previously published intermediate to hi,oh resolution spectroscopic observations of approximately 80 early B-type main-sequence stars situated in 19 Galactic open clusters/associations with Galactocentric distances distributed over 6 less than or equal to R-g less than or equal to 18 kpc. This current study collates and re-analyses these equivalent- width datasets using LTE and non-LTE model atmosphere techniques, in order to determine the stellar atmospheric parameters and abundance estimates for C, N, O, Mg, Al and Si. The latter should be representative of the present-day Galactic interstellar medium. Our extensive observational dataset permits the identification of sub-samples of stars with similar atmospheric parameters and of homogeneous subsets of lines. As such, this investigation represents the most extensive and systematic study of its kind to date. We conclude that the distribution of light elements (CI O, Mg & Si) in the Galactic disk can be represented by a linear, radial gradient of -0.07 +/- 0.01 dex kpc(-1) Our results for nitrogen and oxygen viz. (-0.09 +/- 0.01 dex kpc(-1) and -0.067 +/- 0.008 dex kpc(-1)) are in excellent agreement with that found from the study of HII regions. We have also examined our datasets for evidence of an abrupt discontinuity in the metallicity of the Galactic disk near a Galactocentric distance of 10 kpc (see Twarog et al. 1997). However, there is no evidence to suggest that our data would be better fitted with a two-zone model. Moreover, we observe a N/O gradient of -0.04 +/- 0.02 dex kpc(-1) which is consistent with that found for other spiral galaxies (Vila- Costas gr Edmunds 1993).

Assessment of data quality in a multi-centre cross-sectional study of participation and quality of life of children with cerebral palsy

Background: SPARCLE is a cross-sectional survey in nine European regions, examining the relationship of the environment of children with cerebral palsy to their participation and quality of life. The objective of this report is to assess data quality, in particular heterogeneity between regions, family and item non-response and potential for bias. Methods: 1,174 children aged 8–12 years were selected from eight population-based registers of children with cerebral palsy; one further centre recruited 75 children from multiple sources. Families were visited by trained researchers who administered psychometric questionnaires. Logistic regression was used to assess factors related to family non-response and self-completion of questionnaires by children. Results: 431/1,174 (37%) families identified from registers did not respond: 146 (12%) were not traced; of the 1,028 traced families, 250 (24%) declined to participate and 35 (3%) were not approached. Families whose disabled children could walk unaided were more likely to decline to participate. 818 children entered the study of which 500 (61%) self-reported their quality of life; children with low IQ, seizures or inability to walk were less likely to self-report. There was substantial heterogeneity between regions in response rates and socio-demographic characteristics of families but not in age or gender of children. Item non-response was 2% for children and ranged from 0.4% to 5% for questionnaires completed by parents. Conclusion: While the proportion of untraced families was higher than in similar surveys, the refusal rate was comparable. To reduce bias, all analyses should allow for region, walking ability, age and socio-demographic characteristics. The 75 children in the region without a population based register are unlikely to introduce bias

Nitrogen budget for the Oldman River Basin, southern Alberta, Canada

The Oldman River Basin (OMRB), located in southern Alberta (Canada), with an area of 28,200 km2, is mainly forested in its western part and is used for intensive agriculture in its eastern part. The objective of this paper is to estimate the nitrogen (N) budget for the Oldman River Basin as a whole and its sub-basins, and to discuss differences in the N budget between various sub-basins. Better knowledge of the N budget in this watershed may be also utilized for understanding N dynamics in similar watersheds within semi-arid climatic regions. The model used is a mass balance spreadsheet model that takes into account N inputs and N export through surface water. During the last 120 years, anthropogenic N inputs to the OMRB have increased circa 40 fold. By the end of the 20th century, the OMRB received an annualN input of about 5174 kg N km-2 yr-1, whereas only about 25 kg N km-2 yr-1 were exported via riverine flow. For the sub-basins, annual N inputs ranged from 2516 to 19011 kg N km-2 yr-1, and annual N export via riverine flows varied between 6 and 277 kg N km-2 yr-1. Over 85% of total N inputs to the OMRB are due to anthropogenic activities, including manure (55%), synthetic fertilizer (27%), and N fixation on agricultural lands (4%). Sewage accounted for less than 1%, and N inputs from atmospheric deposition and fixation in forests represented 6 and 8% respectively. Despite increasing anthropogenic N inputs, N export with riverine flow currently accounts for only 1% of the inputs, indicating thatmost of theNinputs are currently retained in the OMRB or are re-emitted into the atmosphere.

Evidence for two-phase regions in BST thin films from capacitance-voltage data

The Curie-Weiss plots of reciprocal dielectric constant versus temperature, in Ba0.5Sr0.5TiO3 films grown onto SrRuO3 lower electrodes by pulsed-laser deposition, show two minima below film thicknesses of 280 nm. This double minima implies possible mixed phases in the thin films. A graphical plot of capacitance for decreasing dc voltage versus that of increasing dc voltage shows a well-defined triangular shape for both Pb(Zr0.4Ti0.6)O-3 and SrBi2Ta2O9 thin films. However, for a 175-nm-thick Ba0.5Sr0.5TiO3 thin film, the plot shows an overlapping of two triangles, suggesting mixed phases. This graphical method appears to be effective in detecting structural subtleties in ferroelectric capacitors.