Credit Unions in Great Britain: Recent Trends and Current Prospects

Against the current backdrop of deteriorating economic and financial conditions we consider recent trends and current prospects for credit unions in Great Britain. We note that although credit unions have experienced solid membership and asset growth there are clouds on the horizon. Bad debts and loan arrears are on the rise and may be linked to recent legislative amendments and the increasing use by Government of credit unions as a mechanism to achieve its financial inclusion goals. Whatever the reason, the deterioration in the loan book needs to be quickly addressed, or it will ultimately result in either more government bailouts or a stream of failing credit unions.

Annotated Bibliography: Grande Bretagne / Great Britain: Part Three: The Problem of Rights and the Literature of Constitutional Reform

(With C.N. Doe.)

Centres, Peripheries and Party Systems: nested secession processes in Great Britain and Ireland

The seminal work of Lipset and Rokkan, which explores how party systems evolved organically from nineteenth-century roots, has generally been applied in states which have enjoyed a long-standing territorial identity. Their model's emphasis on stability and predictability can, however, be reconciled with circumstances where the very identity of the state itself is an issue. This article explores the capacity of the model to explain party divisions in three nested contexts: the pre-1922 United Kingdom, which encountered problems with its Celtic peripheries, and especially with Ireland; independent Ireland, where a unique party system developed, largely in response to a broader historical and geographical context; and Northern Ireland, where party politics fossilised in the 1880s, and began to unfreeze only in the 1970s. The article argues that the Lipset–Rokkan model casts valuable light on these processes, which in turn contribute to the theoretical richness of the model.

Attitudes towards ideal family size of different ethnic/nationality groups in Great Britain, France and Germany.

This article reports upon results from a European Union funded project on the integration of children of international migrants in Britain, France and Germany. It provides both a descriptive and a multivariate analysis of the factors that determine attitudes towards ideal family size. The results reveal that there are large differences between ethnic groups in Britain: Indian and Pakistani respondents in Britain expressed a preference for significantly larger families. However, many children of international migrants expressed a desire for smaller families than the autochthonous population in both countries. This was particularly the case for Portuguese respondents in France and Turks in Germany. Religious affiliation also had a significant effect, above and beyond ethnicity per se. Both Moslems and Christians preferred larger families than those with no religious affiliation. The article concludes that ethnic differences in attitudes towards fertility behaviour will remain important in the foreseeable future in western Europe, particularly in Britain.

Histopathologists’ approach to keratoacanthoma: a multisite survey of regional variation in Great Britain and Ireland

Introduction: This survey examines regional variation in the diagnosis of keratoacanthoma (KA).

Methods: Twenty-three departments from Great Britain and Ireland were invited. The number of cases coded as KA or cutaneous SCC in the previous 12 months was retrieved. An SCC: KA ratio was calculated. Participants also provided free text responses.

Results: Seventeen departments replied. A total of 11 718 cases were included with a breakdown of 998 KA and 10 720 SCC. The mean SCC:KA ratio was 10.7:1, range (2.5:1 to 139:1). Free text responses are presented.

Discussions: An extreme variation in approach is highlighted by this survey. We believe a multidisciplinary team approach to the diagnosis of KA is essential. There seems to be a need for a carefully considered clinicopathological study, backed up by molecular studies, to better understand the natural biology of this diagnosis.

The continued salience of religious voting in the United States, Germany, and Great Britain

Conventional wisdom on party systems in advanced industrial democracies holds that modern electorates are dealigned and that social cleavages no longer structure party politics. Recent work on class cleavages has challenged this stylized fact. The analysis performed here extends this criticism to the religious-secular cleavage. Using path analysis and comparing the current electorates of the United States, Germany, and Great Britain with the early 1960s, this paper demonstrates that the religious-secular cleavage remains or has become a significant predictor of conservative vote choice. While the effects of the religious-secular cleavage on vote choice have become largely indirect, the total of the direct and indirect effects is substantial and equivalent to the effects of class and status.

'A terrible danger to the morals of the country': The Irish hospitals' sweepstake in Great Britain, 1930-87

This paper examines the importance of British contributions to the success of the Irish hospitals sweepstake. In its early years, up to three-quarters of these tickets were sold in Britain, bringing millions of pounds into Ireland annually to improve and expand the state's hospitals. The vast amount of money leaving Britain in this way angered the British government and forced it to introduce new legislation to curtail the activities of the Irish sweep. The paper will highlight the extent to which the success of the sweepstake depended on the market for tickets in Britain; the threat to the sweep's survival posed by the restriction of its activities in Britain after 1935; the role of the sweepstake controversy in exacerbating further already strained relations between Britain and the Irish Free State in the 1930s; how the success of the sweep raised the issue of legalising a British lottery; and the eventual decline of the sweepstake as a force in British gambling in the post-war years.

Cartographic veracity in medieval mapping: analyzing geographical variation in the Gough Map of Great Britain

This article explores statistical approaches for assessing the relative accuracy of medieval mapping. It focuses on one particular map, the Gough Map of Great Britain. This is an early and remarkable example of a medieval “national” map covering Plantagenet Britain. Conventionally dated to c. 1360, the map shows the position of places in and coastal outline of Great Britain to a considerable degree of spatial accuracy. In this article, aspects of the map's content are subjected to a systematic analysis to identify geographical variations in the map's veracity, or truthfulness. It thus contributes to debates among historical geographers and cartographic historians on the nature of medieval maps and mapping and, in particular, questions of their distortion of geographic space. Based on a newly developed digital version of the Gough Map, several regression-based approaches are used here to explore the degree and nature of spatial distortion in the Gough Map. This demonstrates that not only are there marked variations in the positional accuracy of places shown on the map between regions (i.e., England, Scotland, and Wales), but there are also fine-scale geographical variations in the spatial accuracy of the map within these regions. The article concludes by suggesting that the map was constructed using a range of sources, and that the Gough Map is a composite of multiscale representations of places in Great Britain. The article details a set of approaches that could be transferred to other contexts and add value to historic maps by enhancing understanding of their contents.

“An Examination of the Key Factor of Influence In the Development Process of Credit Union Industries,”

The aim of this paper is to analyse credit union industries within a development framework. Explicit consideration is given to credit union industries in four countries – Great Britain, Ireland, New Zealand and the United States. It is argued that in terms of a developmental typology the credit union industry in Great Britain is at a nascent stage of development, the industries in Ireland and New Zealand are at a transition stage while the US credit union industry is mature in nature. In progression between stages the analysis considers the influence of factors such as situational leadership, the complexion of trade associations, professionalisation, regulatory and legislative initiatives and technology. The analysis concluded that while there was a substantial commonality of experience, there were also significant differences in the impact of these factors. This consequently encouraged the recognition of the existence of ‘a variety of the species’ in respect of credit union development.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.