Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this "suck in and smear syndrome" for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.

Unlinked vital events in census-based longitudinal studies can bias subsequent analysis

Objective: To examine the potential biases arising from the nonlinkage of census records and vital events in longitudinal studies.
Study Design and Setting: A total of 56,396 deaths of residents of Northern Ireland in the 4 years after the 2001 Census were linked to the 2001 Census records. The characteristics of matched and nonmatched death records were compared using multivariate logistic regression. Subject attributes were as recorded on the death certificate.
Results: In total, 3,392 (6.0%) deaths could not be linked to a census record. Linkage rates were lowest in young adults, males, the unmarried, people living in communal establishments, or living in areas that were more deprived or had recorded low census enumeration. For those aged less than 65 years at census, this linkage would exclude from analysis 20.2% of suicides and 19.7% of deaths by external causes.
Conclusion: The nonlinkage of census and death records is a combination of nonenumeration at census and deficient information about the deceased recorded at the time of death. Unmatched individuals may have been more disadvantaged or socially isolated, and analysis based on the linked data set may therefore show some bias and perhaps understate true social gradients.

Young children's reasoning about the order of past events

Four studies are reported that employed an object location task to assess temporal-causal reasoning. In Experiments 1-3, successfully locating the object required a retrospective consideration of the order in which two events had occurred. In Experiment 1, 5- but not 4-year-olds were successful; 4-year-olds also failed to perform at above-chance levels in modified versions of the task in Experiments 2 and 3. However, in Experiment 4, 3-year-olds were successful when they were able to see the object being placed first in one location and then in the other, rather than having to consider retrospectively the sequence in which two events had happened. The results suggest that reasoning about the causal significance of the temporal order of events may not be fully developed before 5 years. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pleistocene glaciation events shape genetic structure across the range of the American lobster, Homarus americanus

A north/south discontinuity along the northeastern coast of North America in the genetic structure of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) was detected using a suite of 13 microsatellite loci assessed using spatial analyses. Population genetic data laid over existing data on physiographic changes and sea-surface temperatures were used to reconstruct the Pleistocene distribution of this species. A postglacial northern-edge colonization model best explains the relative genetic homogeneity of the northern region compared to the southern region centred in the Gulf of Maine. Population genetic analyses identified significant structure (range of standardized theta 0-0.02) but no significant evidence for isolation by distance. The novel application of spatial genetic analyses to a marine species allowed us to interpret these results by providing a greater insight into the evolutionary factors responsible for shaping the genetic structure of this species throughout is natural range.

Thisness and Events

This essay is an investigation into the existence of primitive thisness, i.e. the property of being a particular individual. I begin with a look at what is commonly taken to be the test for primitive thisness, namely, the failure of application of the principle of the Identity of Indiscernibles for some class of individuals. The two classes that I look at are those of material objects and events. I then discuss Hacking’s objection to the general project of seeking counterexamples to the Identity of Indiscernibles, and consider a response due to Adams. I argue that Hacking’s objection does, indeed, count against the instantiation of thisness by material objects. I go on to argue, however, that Hacking’s objection does not hold against the instantiation of thisness by events, and that this is due to a fundamental disanalogy between space and time.

Current transients in the small salient-pole alternator caused by sudden short-circuit and synchronisation events

Small salient-pole machines, in the range 30 kVA to 2 MVA, are often used in distributed generators, which in turn are likely to form the major constituent of power generation in power system islanding schemes or microgrids. In addition to power system faults, such as short-circuits, islanding contains an inherent risk of out-of-synchronism re-closure onto the main power system. To understand more fully the effect of these phenomena on a small salient-pole alternator, the armature and field currents from tests conducted on a 31.5 kVA machine are analysed. This study demonstrates that by resolving the voltage difference between the machine terminals and bus into direct and quadrature axis components, interesting properties of the transient currents are revealed. The presence of saliency and short time-constants cause intriguing differences between machine events such as out-of-phase synchronisations and sudden three-phase short-circuits.