Econometric analysis of microscopic simulation models

Microscopic simulation models are often evaluated based on visual inspection of the results. This paper presents formal econometric techniques to compare microscopic simulation (MS) models with real-life data. A related result is a methodology to compare different MS models with each other. For this purpose, possible parameters of interest, such as mean returns, or autocorrelation patterns, are classified and characterized. For each class of characteristics, the appropriate techniques are presented. We illustrate the methodology by comparing the MS model developed by He and Li [J. Econ. Dynam. Control, 2007, 31, 3396-3426, Quant. Finance, 2008, 8, 59-79] with actual data.

Sedative load of medications prescribed for older people with dementia in care homes

The objective of this study was to determine the sedative load and use of sedative and psychotropic medications among older people with dementia living in (residential) care homes.

New prognostic markers, determined using gene expression analyses, reveal two distinct subtypes of chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia patients

Chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia (CMML) is a heterogeneous haematopoietic disorder characterized by myeloproliferative or myelodysplastic features. At present, the pathogenesis of this malignancy is not completely understood. In this study, we sought to analyse gene expression profiles of CMML in order to characterize new molecular outcome predictors. A learning set of 32 untreated CMML patients at diagnosis was available for TaqMan low-density array gene expression analysis. From 93 selected genes related to cancer and cell cycle, we built a five-gene prognostic index after multiplicity correction. Using this index, we characterized two categories of patients with distinct overall survival (94% vs. 19% for good and poor overall survival, respectively; P = 0.007) and we successfully validated its strength on an independent cohort of 21 CMML patients with Affymetrix gene expression data. We found no specific patterns of association with traditional prognostic stratification parameters in the learning cohort. However, the poor survival group strongly correlated with high-risk treated patients and transformation to acute myeloid leukaemia. We report here a new multigene prognostic index for CMML, independent of the gene expression measurement method, which could be used as a powerful tool to predict clinical outcome and help physicians to evaluate criteria for treatments.

Exome sequencing of gastric adenocarcinoma identifies recurrent somatic mutations in cell adhesion and chromatin remodelling genes

Gastric cancer is a major cause of global cancer mortality. We surveyed the spectrum of somatic alterations in gastric cancer by sequencing the exomes of 15 gastric adenocarcinomas and their matched normal DNAs. Frequently mutated genes in the adenocarcinomas included TP53 (11/15 tumors), PIK3CA (3/15) and ARID1A (3/15). Cell adhesion was the most enriched biological pathway among the frequently mutated genes. A prevalence screening confirmed mutations in FAT4, a cadherin family gene, in 5% of gastric cancers (6/110) and FAT4 genomic deletions in 4% (3/83) of gastric tumors. Frequent mutations in chromatin remodeling genes (ARID1A, MLL3 and MLL) also occurred in 47% of the gastric cancers. We detected ARID1A mutations in 8% of tumors (9/110), which were associated with concurrent PIK3CA mutations and microsatellite instability. In functional assays, we observed both FAT4 and ARID1A to exert tumor-suppressor activity. Somatic inactivation of FAT4 and ARID1A may thus be key tumorigenic events in a subset of gastric cancers.

Psychosocial factors in GP work:the effects of taking a GP position or leaving GP work

BACKGROUND: We examined the effects of leaving public sector general practitioner (GP) work and of taking a GP position on changes in work-related psychosocial factors, such as time pressure, patient-related stress, distress and work interference with family. In addition, we examined whether changes in time pressure and patient-related stress mediated the association of employment change with changes of distress and work interference with family. METHODS: Participants were 1705 Finnish physicians (60% women) who responded to surveys in 2006 and 2010. Analyses of covariance were conducted to examine the effect of employment change to outcome changes adjusted for gender, age and response format. Mediational effects were tested following the procedures outlined by Baron and Kenny. RESULTS: Employment change was significantly associated with all the outcomes. Leaving public sector GP work was associated with substantially decreased time pressure, patient-related stress, distress and work interference with family. In contrast, taking a position as a public sector GP was associated with an increase in these factors. Mediation tests suggested that the associations of employment change with distress change and work interference with family change were partially explained by the changes in time pressure and patient-related stress. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that leaving public sector GP work is associated with favourable outcomes, whereas taking a GP position in the public sector is associated with adverse effects. Primary health-care organizations should pay more attention to the working conditions of their GPs, in particular, to time pressure and patient-related stress.

Langerhans cells protect from allergic contact dermatitis in mice by tolerizing CD8+ T cells and activating Foxp3+ regulatory T cells

Allergic contact dermatitis is the most frequent occupational disease in industrialized countries. It is caused by CD8(+) T cell-mediated contact hypersensitivity (CHS) reactions triggered at the site of contact by a variety of chemicals, also known as weak haptens, present in fragrances, dyes, metals, preservatives, and drugs. Despite the myriad of potentially allergenic substances that can penetrate the skin, sensitization is relatively rare and immune tolerance to the substance is often induced by as yet poorly understood mechanisms. Here we show, using the innocuous chemical 2,4-dinitrothiocyanobenzene (DNTB), that cutaneous immune tolerance in mice critically depends on epidermal Langerhans cells (LCs), which capture DNTB and migrate to lymph nodes for direct presentation to CD8(+) T cells. Depletion and adoptive transfer experiments revealed that LCs conferred protection from development of CHS by a mechanism involving both anergy and deletion of allergen-specific CD8(+) T cells and activation of a population of T cells identified as ICOS(+)CD4(+)Foxp3(+) Tregs. Our findings highlight the critical role of LCs in tolerance induction in mice to the prototype innocuous hapten DNTB and suggest that strategies targeting LCs might be valuable for prevention of cutaneous allergy.

Apolipoprotein E polymorphism and serum concentration in Alzheimer's disease in nine European centres:the ApoEurope study. ApoEurope group

As part of the ApoEurope Project, apolipoprotein E (apo E) common polymorphism and serum concentration were determined in 489 Alzheimer's disease patients and 429 controls. Patients and controls were recruited through nine centres in eight European countries. Age, sex ratios and education levels of both case and control populations were similar, although discrete differences appeared between centres. The prevalence of the epsilon4 allele was higher in Alzheimer's disease than in controls (increased by 140%), while serum apo E concentration was lower by 11.2% (p

The impedance cardiogram recorded through two electrocardiogram/defibrillator pads as a determinant of cardiac arrest during experimental studies

OBJECTIVE: Laypersons are poor at emergency pulse checks (sensitivity 84%, specificity 36%). Guidelines indicate that pulse checks should not be performed. The impedance cardiogram (dZ/dt) is used to assess stroke volume. Can a novel defibrillator-based impedance cardiogram system be used to distinguish between circulatory arrest and other collapse states?

DESIGN: Animal study.

SETTING: University research laboratory.

SUBJECTS: Twenty anesthetized, mechanically ventilated pigs, weight 50-55 kg.

INTERVENTIONS: Stroke volume was altered by right ventricular pacing (160, 210, 260, and 305 beats/min). Cardiac arrest states were then induced: ventricular fibrillation (by rapid ventricular pacing) and, after successful defibrillation, pulseless electrical activity and asystole (by high-dose intravenous pentobarbitone).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The impedance cardiogram was recorded through electrocardiogram/defibrillator pads in standard cardiac arrest positions. Simultaneously recorded electro- and impedance cardiogram (dZ/dt) along with arterial blood pressure tracings were digitized during each pacing and cardiac arrest protocol. Five-second epochs were analyzed for sinus rhythm (20 before ventricular fibrillation, 20 after successful defibrillation), ventricular fibrillation (40), pulseless electrical activity (20), and asystole (20), in two sets of ten pigs (ten training, ten validation). Standard impedance cardiogram variables were noncontributory in cardiac arrest, so the fast Fourier transform of dZ/dt was assessed. During ventricular pacing, the peak amplitude of fast Fourier transform of dZ/dt (between 1.5 and 4.5 Hz) correlated with stroke volume (r2 = .3, p < .001). In cardiac arrest, a peak amplitude of fast Fourier transform of dZ/dt of < or = 4 dB x ohm x rms indicated no output with high sensitivity (94% training set, 86% validation set) and specificity (98% training set, 90% validation set).

CONCLUSIONS: As a powerful clinical marker of circulatory collapse, the fast Fourier transformation of dZ/dt (impedance cardiogram) has the potential to improve emergency care by laypersons using automated defibrillators.

Europeanization of Inequality and Europeanization of Reference Groups

In this article we take advantage of the availability of European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data to address both weak and strong versions of the Europeanization of reference groups thesis. The former proposes that common standards of evaluation emerge as a consequence of knowledge of conditions in other societies. The latter argues that people increasingly perceive themselves as part of a larger European stratification system. Our analysis leads us to reject both versions of the thesis. Material deprivation rather than having a uniform effect is highly dependent on national context. If a process of convergence is underway, it is one that as yet has had a limited impact. In circumstances where the Europeanization of inequality is raising issues relating to both national and transnational forms of legitimacy, it is important to understand that there is no necessary relationship between such Europeanization and the Europeanization of reference groups.

Social Class Variation in Risk: A Comparative Analysis of the Dynamics of Economic Vulnerability

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis.

Comparing Poverty Indicators in an Enlarged European Union

In this article, we explore the extent to which a consideration of welfare regime and socioeconomic differences in poverty levels and patterns can assist us in making an informed assessment of alternative poverty indicators. Poverty in the EU is normally defined in terms of income thresholds at the level of each member state. However, with the enlargement of the EU, such measures have come in for increasing criticism. One set of reservation relates to the limitations imposed by an entirely national frame of reference. An alternative critique focuses on the fact that low income is an unreliable indicator of poverty. In this article, we seek to explore the strength of both arguments by comparing the outcomes associated with ‘at risk of poverty’ and consistent poverty at both national and EU levels. Developing an appropriate assessment of poverty levels in the enlarged EU, particularly in periods of rapid change, is likely to require that we make use of a number of indicators none of which capture the full complexity of cross-national poverty outcomes. However, our analysis suggests that if a choice is to be made between the available indicators, the ‘mixed consistent poverty’ indicator developed in this study is best suited to achieving the stated EU objective of assessing the scale of exclusion from minimally acceptable standards of living in individual countries while also measuring the extent to which the whole population of Europe is sharing in the benefits of high average prosperity.

Material Deprivation, Economic Stress, and Reference Groups in Europe: An Analysis of EU-SILC 2009

In this article, we take advantage of the recent availability of data from the special module on material deprivation in the 2009 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between material deprivation and economic stress, the mediating and moderating roles played by cross-national differences in levels of income and income inequality, and the implications for competing perspectives on the nature of reference groups in Europe. The article establishes the critical role of basic deprivation, relating to inability to enjoy customary standards of living, in influencing economic stress levels. National income levels and inequality had no direct influence on economic stress. However, the impact of basic deprivation was stronger in countries with higher levels of income, indicating the crucial role of national reference groups. An interaction between basic deprivation and income inequality was also observed. However, contrary to the expectation that experiencing basic deprivation in a national context of high income inequality is likely to be particularly stressful, the consequences of such deprivation were most negative in low inequality countries. Experiencing basic deprivation where high income levels and lower inequality would lead to the expectation that such deprivation is eminently avoidable exacerbates its impact. © The Author 2013.

Low Pay, In-Work Poverty and Economic Vulnerability: A Comparative Aanalysis Using EU-SILC

We explore the potential of data from EU-SILC (Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) for the enlarged European Union for the study of low pay and its relationship to household poverty and vulnerability. Limitations of the earnings data currently available mean the analysis covers only 14 of these countries. For employees who are not low paid, income poverty is seen to be rare. The low paid face a much higher risk of being in a household below relative income poverty thresholds, ranging from 7 per cent in Belgium and the Netherlands up to 1718 per cent in Austria, Estonia and Lithuania. The likelihood of their being in a poor household is clearly linked to gender, age and social class. In most of the countries only a minority of low-paid individuals are in vulnerable households.