An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.

Co-design of Distributed Systems Using Skeleton and Autonomic Management Abstractions

We discuss how common problems arising with multi/many core distributed architectures can he effectively handled through co-design of parallel/distributed programming abstractions and of autonomic management of non-functional concerns. In particular, we demonstrate how restricted patterns (or skeletons) may be efficiently managed by rule-based autonomic managers. We discuss the basic principles underlying pattern+manager co-design, current implementations inspired by this approach and some result achieved with proof-or-concept, prototype.

The nonformative elements of religious life: questioning the ‘sociology of spirituality’ paradigm

Sociological assertions of religious vitality in Euro-American societies have developed a paradigm of spirituality in which, following earlier studies of the New Age, a distinction is drawn between external authority and self-authority. Methodologically and theoretically problematic, this paradigm diverts attention from people’s social practices and interactions, especially in relation to multiple religious authorities. Drawing upon ethnographic fieldwork with an English religious network, and building upon the work of Pierre Bourdieu, this paper considers situations in which multiple authorities tend to relativize each other. Conceptualizing this in terms of nonformativeness - the lack of authorities’ abilities formatively to shape religious identity, habitus, and competition over religious capital - a new understanding of individual secularization emerges that questions assertions of vitality.

The WEU::A Europe of the Seven, 1954-1969

The history of the Western European Union after 1954–1955 is still a terra incognita. This article examines the function of the Western European Union in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture of the Cold War up to the 1960s. The paper studies the prime shifts of the tectonic plates forming the Western partial system of the bipolar Cold War system – and their systemic repercussions. The relationship between the Western umbrella organisation, NATO, and its European subsystem is analysed in four case studies: (1) the Arms Pool Negotiations of 1955; (2) Selwyn Lloyd's Grand Design of 1956–1957; (3) the wider Political European Union agenda of 1960–1962 and (4) the Western European Union nuclear force project of 1963.

Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.