Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Delayed failure of a deep cutting in lodgement till

Recent research on the delayed failure of cuttings in clay clearly recognises and predicts progressive delayed failure of deep cuttings. This is due to a combination of strain-softening, weathering, dissipation of negative excess pore water pressure generated at the time of excavation, and frequent occurrence of prolonged periods of wet weather. There have been several slope failures of this kind in Northern Ireland. This paper discusses a case study based on a failure of a deep cutting, excavated at a slope of 1 in 2, on the A1 near Dromore (County Down) in Northern Ireland. The cutting was in lodgement till, a stiff, heavily overconsolidated clay. The failure occurred approximately 30 years after the cutting was excavated, following a prolonged period of heavy rainfall. An analysis of the failure, together with laboratory test data on soil samples taken from the site, confirmed that by using long-term soil strength parameters the factor of safety of this slope was unity. The conclusion of the analysis is that slopes excavated in this soil should be designed (and assessed) on long-term strength parameters.

Noninvasive Detection of Brushless Exciter Rotating Diode Failure

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