Holding parties responsible at election time: Multi-level, multi-party government and electoral accountability

This paper highlights the crucial role played by party-specific responsibility attributions in performance-based voting. Three models of electoral accountability, which make distinct assumptions regarding citizens' ability to attribute responsibility to distinct governing parties, are tested in the challenging Northern Ireland context - an exemplar case of multi-level multi-party government in which expectations of performance based voting are low. The paper demonstrates the operation of party-attribution based electoral accountability, using data from the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study. However, the findings are asymmetric: accountability operates in the Protestant/unionist bloc but not in the Catholic/nationalist bloc. This asymmetry may be explained by the absence of clear ethno-national ideological distinctions between the unionist parties (hence providing political space for performance based accountability to operate) but the continued relevance in the nationalist bloc of ethno-national difference (which limits the scope for performance politics). The implications of the findings for our understanding of the role of party-specific responsibility attribution in performance based models of voting, and for our evaluation of the quality of democracy in post-conflict consociational polities, are discussed. 

On the Complexity of Universal Leader Election

Electing a leader is a fundamental task in distributed computing. In its implicit version, only the leader must know who is the elected leader. This article focuses on studying the message and time complexity of randomized implicit leader election in synchronous distributed networks. Surprisingly, the most "obvious" complexity bounds have not been proven for randomized algorithms. In particular, the seemingly obvious lower bounds of Ω(m) messages, where m is the number of edges in the network, and Ω(D) time, where D is the network diameter, are nontrivial to show for randomized (Monte Carlo) algorithms. (Recent results, showing that even Ω(n), where n is the number of nodes in the network, is not a lower bound on the messages in complete networks, make the above bounds somewhat less obvious). To the best of our knowledge, these basic lower bounds have not been established even for deterministic algorithms, except for the restricted case of comparison algorithms, where it was also required that nodes may not wake up spontaneously and that D and n were not known. We establish these fundamental lower bounds in this article for the general case, even for randomized Monte Carlo algorithms. Our lower bounds are universal in the sense that they hold for all universal algorithms (namely, algorithms that work for all graphs), apply to every D, m, and n, and hold even if D, m, and n are known, all the nodes wake up simultaneously, and the algorithms can make any use of node's identities. To show that these bounds are tight, we present an O(m) messages algorithm. An O(D) time leader election algorithm is known. A slight adaptation of our lower bound technique gives rise to an Ω(m) message lower bound for randomized broadcast algorithms. 

An interesting fundamental problem is whether both upper bounds (messages and time) can be reached simultaneously in the randomized setting for all graphs. The answer is known to be negative in the deterministic setting. We answer this problem partially by presenting a randomized algorithm that matches both complexities in some cases. This already separates (for some cases) randomized algorithms from deterministic ones. As first steps towards the general case, we present several universal leader election algorithms with bounds that tradeoff messages versus time. We view our results as a step towards understanding the complexity of universal leader election in distributed networks.

Fast Byzantine Leader Election in Dynamic Networks

We study the fundamental Byzantine leader election problem in dynamic networks where the topology can change from round to round and nodes can also experience heavy {\em churn} (i.e., nodes can join and leave the network continuously over time). We assume the full information model where the Byzantine nodes have complete knowledge about the entire state of the network at every round (including random choices made by all the nodes), have unbounded computational power and can deviate arbitrarily from the protocol. The churn is controlled by an adversary that has complete knowledge and control over which nodes join and leave and at what times and also may rewire the topology in every round and has unlimited computational power, but is oblivious to the random choices made by the algorithm. Our main contribution is an $O(\log^3 n)$ round algorithm that achieves Byzantine leader election under the presence of up to $O({n}^{1/2 - \epsilon})$ Byzantine nodes (for a small constant $\epsilon > 0$) and a churn of up to \\$O(\sqrt{n}/\poly\log(n))$ nodes per round (where $n$ is the stable network size).The algorithm elects a leader with probability at least $1-n^{-\Omega(1)}$ and guarantees that it is an honest node with probability at least $1-n^{-\Omega(1)}$; assuming the algorithm succeeds, the leader's identity will be known to a $1-o(1)$ fraction of the honest nodes. Our algorithm is fully-distributed, lightweight, and is simple to implement. It is also scalable, as it runs in polylogarithmic (in $n$) time and requires nodes to send and receive messages of only polylogarithmic size per round.To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first scalable solution for Byzantine leader election in a dynamic network with a high rate of churn; our protocol can also be used to solve Byzantine agreement in a straightforward way.We also show how to implement an (almost-everywhere) public coin with constant bias in a dynamic network with Byzantine nodes and provide a mechanism for enabling honest nodes to store information reliably in the network, which might be of independent interest.

The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2011

Following the first full term of regional government in the province since 1972, the Northern Ireland Assembly election held on 5 May 2011 saw the continuation of several trends. Foremost, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin bolstered further their positions as leaders of their respective communities, with the Social Democratic and Labour Party and Ulster Unionist Party losing yet more ground. Building on their decision to enter power-sharing government together in 2007, the two largest parties framed themselves as the progressive choice for voters. As this was the first Assembly election since St Andrews (2006), much of the campaign dialogue centred on the prospect of a Sinn Féin First Minister, a concern highlighted by both unionist parties. The campaign also focused on ‘normal’ socio-economic political issues and possible institutional reform. The absence of inter-party conflict led to the campaign being perceived as the most mundane in living memory, with fears of a record low turnout realised.

Effective collision strengths for election impact excitation of Cl III

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the phosphorus-like ion Cl III are presented for all fine-structure transitions among the levels arising from the lowest 23 LS states. The collisional cross sections are computed in the multichannel close-coupling R-matrix approximation, where sophisticated configuration-interaction wave functions are used to represent the target states. The 23 LS states are formed from the basis configurations 3s²3p³, 3s3p⁴, 3s²3p²3d, and 3s²3p²4s, and correspond to 49 fine-structure levels, leading to a total possible 1176 fine-structure transitions. The effective collision strengths, obtained by averaging the electron collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities, are tabulated in this paper for all 1176 transitions and for electron temperatures in the ranges T(K)=7500-25,000 and log T(K)=4.4-5.4. The former range encompasses the temperatures of particular importance for application to gaseous nebulae, while the latter range is more applicable to the study of solar and laboratory-type plasmas. © 2001 Academic Press.

Crystal structure and ab initio calculations of a cyano-carbamimidic acid ethyl ester

The structure of one tautomer (amine form) of cyano-carbamimidic acid ethyl ester or (amino-ethoxy-methylidene)aminoformonitrile (CAS: 13947-84-7) was determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. Ab initio quantum chemical calculations at the B3LYP, MP2 and G3 levels were performed to investigate the stability and the formation of the different tautomers and conformers. The calculations indicate that the amine form is the more stable tautomer, showing a high degree of election conjugation. The most stable amine conformer located by the calculations corresponds to the crystallized structure. On the contrary, in the less stable imine form, the conjugation is separated by a N2-C2 single bond. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Order without law? An anatomy of Hamas security: The Executive Force (Tanfithya)

In the struggle to assert and consolidate its power, the Hamas movement of the Palestinian territories has devised several strategies for control. In recognition that control of security remains a key goal for any power-seeker, following its election victory in January 2006, Hamas entered into a fierce and ultimately successful conflict with Fatah for control of the Palestinian Authority Ministry of Interior and Palestinian Security Forces (PSF) in the Gaza Strip. One way in which Hamas was able to achieve this objective was through the creation of its own internal ‘police’ force called the Tanfithya (Executive Force or EF). This article details an anatomy of the EF and the implications of this force in terms of Hamas' confrontation with opponents and its attempts at governance. It also examines the extent to which the EF can be considered to be a model of Islamic policing and its impact on secular rivals in the Gaza Strip.

Northern Ireland: The Politics of Constraint

The article surveys the interrupted experience of devolution in Northern Ireland since 1999 and draws a number of comparisons between the first devolved Assembly and Executive and their successors elected in 2007. It underlines the significance of the changed political, electoral and paramilitary context in the period leading up to the 2007 Assembly election which, together with a number of procedural changes effected by the 2006 St Andrews Agreement, enabled the restoration of power-sharing devolution to occur. Against the background of its legislative and policy record and the wider altered state of Northern Ireland, it concludes that the contrived consociational model of governance can work, up to a point, but perhaps as much because of the politics of constraint than consociationalism's much vaunted promise to reflect and engender the politics of accommodation.

Realising political equality: the European Court of Human Rights and positive obligations in a democracy'

The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) speaks of the importance of an “effective political democracy” in its Preamble, though it is only in Article 3 of Protocol 1 (P1-3) that we find a right to free elections. This paper discusses the role of “positive obligations” under P1-3. This paper outlines the positive obligations in P1-3 focusing on obligations where the state is required to do more than just change the law. This may mean providing resources or facilities, adopting regulatory frameworks or creating new institutions. The paper highlights specific positive obligations that need to be further developed in the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). Sometimes these can be developed by analogy with positive obligations recognised in other areas of ECtHR jurisprudence. However, beyond these cases, states should ensure that members of vulnerable and disadvantaged minorities are able to participate in the electoral process and should ensure that dominant political groups cannot abuse their political power to exclude other parties unfairly. This is necessary to realise equal political rights. The second section of this paper sketches some preliminary points about the Strasbourg institutions’ approach to P1-3. After that, the third section identifies circumstances where the ECtHR should apply a more intense scrutiny in P1-3 cases. The fourth, fifth and sixth sections look at positive obligations relating to the right to vote, the right to run for election and the regulation of political parties.

James Croll, metaphysical geologist

James Croll (1821–90) occupies a prominent position in the history of physical geology, and his pioneering work on the causes of long-term climate change has been widely discussed. During his life he benefited from the patronage of leading men of science; his participation in scientific debates was widely acknowledged, not least through his election as a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1876. For all that, the intellectual contribution that Croll himself considered to be of most significance—his articles and two books on metaphysics—has attracted very little attention. In addressing this neglect, it is argued here that Croll's interest in metaphysics, grounded in his commitment to a Calvinist form of Christianity, was central to his life and thought. Examining together Croll's geophysical and metaphysical writings offers a different and fruitful way of understanding his scientific career and points to the wider significance of metaphysics in late-Victorian scientific culture.

Attitudes towards women in politics: Gender, generation and party identification in Ireland

This article analyzes the effects of gender, generation and party support towards a greater inclusion of women in politics in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It explores attitudes on this issue using the same question in the Irish National Election Study (INES) and the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey (NILT). The article documents a consistent gender gap in both polities that persists across the generations, despite controls for socio-demographic factors. It also reveals an unexpected generational effect that we explain as the enduring legacy of politicization to women’s rights during the 1970s. Support among party identifiers for more women in politics follows predictable lines, yet gender and generational patterns persist. The gender gap and generational patterns found in the two polities on the island provide reason for concern among those committed to gender equality in representation.

After the Party the Hangover?: An Analysis of ‘Post-Celtic Tiger’ Ireland in the Light of the February 2011 elections’

The election of February 2011 was dominated by the International Monetary Fund/European Central Bank bailout of November 2010, the state of the public finances, the ongoing Irish banking crisis, and the disastrous state of the economy with rising unemployment, emigration and collapsing international competiveness. After years of phenomenal economic growth (at least as measured by orthodox economic measurements such as gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment), known as the 'Celtic Tiger‘, during which a bloated construction industry accounted for a quarter of GDP and Irish banks sank nearly a third of their lending in construction projects, Ireland has entered a 'post-Celtic Tiger‘ era. This article offers a critical analysis outlining some political, economic and cultural issues of this election as heralding a decisive stage in the 'post-Celtic Tiger' development of the Republic of Ireland, and suggests that what is required at this present historical moment is that a different development model be articulated by the Irish state and wider society.