Leisure goods, education attainment and fertility choice

This paper proposes a novel mechanism for the fertility decline that occurred across the world since the late nineteenth century. It suggests that the rise in the cost of children relative to leisure goods in the process of development contributed to the decline in fertility. The paper develops a unified growth model in which children are substitutes for leisure goods in the parental utility function. The theory suggests that the rise in income, the decline in the relative price of leisure goods and the increase in educational attainment in the process of development speed up the demographic transition from high to low fertility and contributed to the transition from stagnation to growth.

Design of composite stiffener run-outs for damage tolerance

A major concern in stiffener run-out regions, where the stiffener is terminated due to a cut-out, intersecting rib, or some other structural feature which interrupts the load path, is the relatively weak skin–stiffener interface in the absence of mechanical fasteners. More damage tolerant stiffener run-outs are clearly required and these are investigated in this paper. Using a parametric finite element analysis, the run-out region was optimised for stable debonding crack growth. The modified run-out, as well as a baseline configuration, were manufactured and tested. Damage initiation and propagation was investigated in detail using state-of-the-art monitoring equipment including Acoustic Emission and Digital Image Correlation. As expected, the baseline configuration failed catastrophically. The modified run-out showed improved crack-growth stability, but subsequent delamination failure in the stiffener promptly led to catastrophic failure.

The Behavior of compressively loaded stiffener runout specimens - Part II: Finite element analysis

The termination of stiffeners in composite aircraft structures give rise to regions of high interlaminar shear and peel stresses as the load in the stiffener is diffused into the skin. This is of particular concern in co-cured composite stiffened structures where there is a relatively low resistance to through-thickness stress components at the skin-stiffener interface. In Part I, experimental results of tested specimens highlighted the influence of local design parameters on their structural response. Indeed some of the observed behavior was unexpected. There is a need to be able to analyse a range of changes in geometry rapidly to allow the analysis to form an integral part of the structural design process.

This work presents the development of a finite element methodology for modelling the failure process of these critical regions. An efficient thick shell element formulation is presented and this element is used in conjuction with the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) to predict the crack growth characteristics of the modelled specimens. Three specimens were modelled and the qualitative aspects of crack growth were captured successfully. The shortcomings in the quantitative correlation between the predicted and observed failure loads are discussed. There was evidence to suggest that high through-thickness compressive stresses enhanced the fracture toughness in these critical regions.

Failure of thick-skinned stiffener runout sections loaded in uniaxial compression

Recent efforts towards the development of the next generation of large civil and military transport aircraft within the European community have provided new impetus for investigating the potential use of composite material in the primary structure. One concern in this development is the vulnerability of co-cured stiffened structures to through-thickness stresses at the skin-stiffener interfaces particularly in stiffener runout regions. These regions are an inevitable consequence of the requirement to terminate stiffeners at cutouts, rib intersections or other structural features which interrupt the stiffener load path. In this respect, thickerskinned components are more vulnerable than thin-skinned ones. This work presents an experimental and numerical study of the failure of thick-sectioned stiffener runout specimens loaded in uniaxial compression. The experiments revealed that failure was initiated at the edge of the runout and propagated across the skin-stiffener interface. High frictional forces at the edge of the runout were also deduced from a fractographic analysis and it is postulated that these forces may enhance the fracture toughness of the specimens. Finite element analysis using an efficient thick-shell element and the Virtual Crack Closure Technique was able to qualitatively predict the crack growth characteristics for each specimen

Fatigue behavior of laser-welded NiTi wires in small-strain cyclic bending

NiTi wires and their weldments are commonly used in micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), and in such applications, cyclic loading are commonly encountered. In this paper, the bending-rotation fatigue (BRF) test was used to study the bending fatigue behavior of NiTi wire laser weldment in the small-strain regime. The fracture mechanism, which includes crack initiation, crack growth and propagation of the weldment in the BRF test, was investigated with the aid of SEM fractography and discussed in terms of the microstructure. It was found that crack initiation was primarily surface-condition dependent. The cracks were found to initiate at the surface defects at the weld zone (WZ) surface, and the crack propagation was assisted by the gas inclusions in the WZ. The weldment was finally fractured in a ductile manner. The fatigue life was found to decrease with increasing surface strain and also with increasing bending frequency (controlled by the rotational speed in the BRF test). In comparison, the fatigue life of the unwelded NiTi wires was higher than their welded counterparts at all strain levels and bending frequencies. The decrease in fatigue resistance of the weldment could be attributed to the surface and microstructural defects introduced during laser welding.

Overweight duration in older adults and cancer risk: a study of cohorts in Europe and the United States

Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12-1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies.

Investigation of various growth mechanisms of solid tumour growth within the linear-quadratic model for radiotherapy

The standard linear-quadratic survival model for radiotherapy is used to investigate different schedules of radiation treatment planning to study how these may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics between treatments.

Landfill cap models under simulated climate change precipitation::Impacts of cracks and root growth

Desiccation crack formation is a key process that needs to be understood in assessment of landfill cap performance under anticipated future climate change scenarios. The objectives of this study were to examine: (a) desiccation cracks and impacts that roots may have on their formation and resealing, and (b) their impacts on hydraulic conductivity under anticipated climate change precipitation scenarios. Visual observations, image analysis of thin sections and hydraulic conductivity tests were carried out on cores collected from two large-scale laboratory trial landfill cap models (∼80 × 80 × 90 cm) during a year of four simulated seasonal precipitation events. Extensive root growth in the topsoil increased percolation of water into the subsurface, and after droughts, roots grew deep into low-permeability layers through major cracks which impeded their resealing. At the end of 1 year, larger cracks had lost resealing ability and one single, large, vertical crack made the climate change precipitation model cap inefficient. Even though the normal precipitation model had developed desiccation cracks, its integrity was preserved better than the climate change precipitation model.