Identification and bisection of temporal durations and tone frequencies: Common models for temporal and non-temporal stimuli.

Two experiments examined identification and bisection of tones varying in temporal duration (Experiment 1) or frequency (Experiment 2). Absolute identification of both durations and frequencies was influenced by prior stimuli and by stimulus distribution. Stimulus distribution influenced bisection for both stimulus types consistently, with more positively skewed distributions producing lower bisection points. The effect of distribution was greater when the ratio of the largest to smallest stimulus magnitude was greater. A simple mathematical model, temporal range frequency theory, was applied. It is concluded that (a) similar principles describe identification of temporal durations and other stimulus dimensions and (b) temporal bisection point shifts can be understood in terms of psychophysical principles independently developed in nontemporal domains, such as A. Parducci's (1965) range frequency theory.

Charge-state distribution and Doppler effect in an expanding photoionized plasma.

The charge state distributions of Fe, Na, and F are determined in a photoionized laboratory plasma using high resolution x-ray spectroscopy. Independent measurements of the density and radiation flux indicate unprecedented values for the ionization parameter ���¾=20 25 erg cm s-1 under near steady-state conditions. Line opacities are well fitted by a curve-of-growth analysis which includes the effects of velocity gradients in a one-dimensional expanding plasma. First comparisons of the measured charge state distributions with x-ray photoionization models show reasonable agreement.

B-type supergiants in the Small Magellanic Cloud: rotational velocities and implications for evolutionary models

High-resolution spectra for 24 SMC and Galactic B-type supergiants have been analysed to estimate the contributions of both macroturbulence and rotation to the broadening of their metal lines. Two different methodologies are considered, viz. goodness-of-fit comparisons between observed and theoretical line profiles and identifying zeros in the Fourier transforms of the observed profiles. The advantages and limitations of the two methods are briefly discussed with the latter techniques being adopted for estimating projected rotational velocities ( v sin i) but the former being used to estimate macroturbulent velocities. The projected rotational velocity estimates range from approximately 20 to 60 kms(-1), apart from one SMC supergiant, Sk 191, with a v sin i similar or equal to 90 km s(-1). Apart from Sk 191, the distribution of projected rotational velocities as a function of spectral type are similar in both our Galactic and SMC samples with larger values being found at earlier spectral types. There is marginal evidence for the projected rotational velocities in the SMC being higher than those in the Galactic targets but any differences are only of the order of 5 - 10 km s(-1), whilst evolutionary models predict differences in this effective temperature range of typically 20 to 70 km s(-1). The combined sample is consistent with a linear variation of projected rotational velocity with effective temperature, which would imply rotational velocities for supergiants of 70 kms(-1) at an effective temperature of 28 000 K ( approximately B0 spectral type) decreasing to 32 km s(-1) at 12 000 K (B8 spectral type). For all targets, the macroturbulent broadening would appear to be consistent with a Gaussian distribution ( although other distributions cannot be discounted) with an 1/e half-width varying from approximately 20 km s(-1) at B8 to 60 km s(-1) at B0 spectral types.

Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.

Angular distribution for the elastic scattering of electrons from Ar+(3s^2 3p^5 ^2P) above the first inelastic threshold

The measured angular differential cross section (DCS) for the elastic scattering of electrons from Ar+(3s2 3p5 2P) at the collision energy of 16 eV is presented. By solving the Hartree-Fock equations, we calculate the corresponding theoretical DCS including the coupling between the orbital angular momenta and spin of the incident electron and those of the target ion and also relaxation effects. Since the collision energy is above one inelastic threshold for the transition 3s2 3p5 2P–3s 3p6 2S, we consider the effects on the DCS of inelastic absorption processes and elastic resonances. The measurements deviate significantly from the Rutherford cross section over the full angular range observed, especially in the region of a deep minimum centered at approximately 75°. Our theory and an uncoupled, unrelaxed method using a local, spherically symmetric potential by Manson [Phys. Rev. 182, 97 (1969)] both reproduce the overall shape of the measured DCS, although the coupled Hartree-Fock approach describes the depth of the minimum more accurately. The minimum is shallower in the present theory owing to our lower average value for the d-wave non-Coulomb phase shift s2, which is due to the high sensitivity of s2 to the different scattering potentials used in the two models. The present measurements and calculations therefore show the importance of including coupling and relaxation effects when accurately modeling electron-ion collisions. The phase shifts obtained by fitting to the measurements are compared with the values of Manson and the present method.

A comparison of a range of models for dispersion in a partially stratified room

A comparative study of models used to predict contaminant dispersion in a partially stratified room is presented. The experiments were carried out in a ventilated test room, with an initially evenly dispersed pollutant. Air was extracted from the outlet in the ceiling of the room at 1 and 3 air changes per hour. A small temperature difference between the top and bottom of the room causes very low air velocities, and higher concentrations, in the lower half of the room. Grid-independent CFD calculations were compared with predictions from a zonal model and from CFD using a very coarse grid. All the calculations show broadly similar contaminant concentration decay rates for the three locations monitored in the experiments, with the zonal model performing surprisingly well. For the lower air change rate, the models predict a less well mixed contaminant distribution than the experimental measurements suggest. With run times of less than a few minutes, the zonal model is around two orders of magnitude faster than coarse-grid CFD and could therefore be used more easily in parametric studies and sensitivity analyses. For a more detailed picture of internal dispersion, a CFD study using coarse and standard grids may be more appropriate.

Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

The distribution of late-Quaternary woody taxa in northern Eurasia: evidence from a new macrofossil database

We present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23 degrees to 180 degrees E and 46 degrees to 76 degrees N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transient Crystal Size Distribution in DTB and FC Crystallizers

This work deals with the transient analysis of crystal size distribution (CSD) for imperfectly mixed draft tube baffled (DTB) and forced circulation (FC) crystallizers. The DTB and FC crystallizers are described by the Compartmental and Mixed models respectively. Monte Carlo (MC) scheme has been employed for simulation purposes. The simulation results have been compared with the available experimental data of BENNETT and VAN BUREN for continuous urea crystallizers.

Assessment of the benefits of Discrete Conditional Survival Models in modelling ambulance response times

Many of the challenges faced in health care delivery can be informed through building models. In particular, Discrete Conditional Survival (DCS) models, recently under development, can provide policymakers with a flexible tool to assess time-to-event data. The DCS model is capable of modelling the survival curve based on various underlying distribution types and is capable of clustering or grouping observations (based on other covariate information) external to the distribution fits. The flexibility of the model comes through the choice of data mining techniques that are available in ascertaining the different subsets and also in the choice of distribution types available in modelling these informed subsets. This paper presents an illustrated example of the Discrete Conditional Survival model being deployed to represent ambulance response-times by a fully parameterised model. This model is contrasted against use of a parametric accelerated failure-time model, illustrating the strength and usefulness of Discrete Conditional Survival models.

On the Distribution of Signal Phase in Body Area Networks

In this letter, we investigate the distribution of the phase component of the complex received signal observed in practical experiments using body area networks. Two phase distributions, the recently proposed kappa-mu and eta-mu probability densities, which together encompass the most widely used fading models, namely Semi-Gaussian, Rayleigh, Hoyt, Rice, and Nakagami-m, have been compared with measurement data. The kappa-mu distribution has been found to provide the best fit over a range of on-body links, while the user was mobile. The experiments were carried out in two dissimilar indoor environments at opposite ends of the multipath spectrum. It has also been found that the uniform phase distribution has not arisen in anyone of the experiments.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

Cross-validation of geo-electrical and hydrogeological models to evaluate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers

The validation of variable-density flow models simulating seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers requires information about concentration distribution in groundwater. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) provides relevant data for this purpose. However, inverse modeling is not accurate because of the non-uniqueness of solutions. Such difficulties in evaluating seawater intrusion can be overcome by coupling geophysical data and groundwater modeling. First, the resistivity distribution obtained by inverse geo-electrical modeling is established. Second, a 3-D variable-density flow hydrogeological model is developed. Third, using Archie's Law, the electrical resistivity model deduced from salt concentration is compared to the formerly interpreted electrical model. Finally, aside from that usual comparison-validation, the theoretical geophysical response of concentrations simulated with the groundwater model can be compared to field-measured resistivity data. This constitutes a cross-validation of both the inverse geo-electrical model and the groundwater model.
[Comte, J.-C., and O. Banton (2007), Cross-validation of geo-electrical and hydrogeological models to evaluate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L10402, doi:10.1029/2007GL029981.]

Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

Theory of pixel lensing toward M31. II. The velocity anisotropy and flattening of the MACHO distribution

The POINT-AGAPE collaboration is currently searching for massive compact halo objects (MACHOs) toward the Andromeda galaxy (M31). The survey aims to exploit the high inclination of the M31 disk, which causes an asymmetry in the spatial distribution of M31 MACHOs. Here, we investigate the effects of halo velocity anisotropy and flattening on the asymmetry signal using simple halo models. For a spherically symmetric and isotropic halo, we find that the underlying pixel lensing rate in far-disk M31 MACHOs is more than 5 times the rate of near-disk events. We find that the asymmetry is further increased by about 30% if the MACHOs occupy radial orbits rather than tangential orbits, but it is substantially reduced if the MACHOs lie in a flattened halo. However, even for halos with a minor- to major-axis ratio of q = 0.3, the number of M31 MACHOs in the far side outnumber those in the near side by a factor of similar to2. There is also a distance asymmetry, in that the events on the far side are typically farther from the major axis. We show that, if this positional information is exploited in addition to number counts, then the number of candidate events required to confirm asymmetry for a range of flattened and anisotropic halo models is achievable, even with significant contamination by variable stars and foreground microlensing events. For pixel lensing surveys that probe a representative portion of the M31 disk, a sample of around 50 candidates is likely to be sufficient to detect asymmetry within spherical halos, even if half the sample is contaminated, or to detect asymmetry in halos as flat as q = 0.3, provided less than a third of the sample comprises contaminants. We also argue that, provided its mass-to-light ratio is less than 100, the recently observed stellar stream around M31 is not problematic for the detection of asymmetry.