Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.

Biomarker Testing and Pre-emptive Therapy in Preventing Heart Failure

In an attempt to reduce the heart failure epidemic,screening and prevention will become an increasing focus ofmanagement in the wider at-risk population. Refining riskprediction through the use of biomarkers in isolation or incombination is emerging as a critical step in this process.The utility of biomarkers to identify disease manifestationsbefore the onset of symptoms and detrimental myocardialdamage is proving to be valuable. In addition, biomarkers thatpredict the likelihood and rate of disease progression over timewill help streamline and focus clinical efforts and therapeuticstrategies. Importantly, several recent early intervention studiesusing biomarker strategies are promising and indicate thatnot only can new-onset heart failure be reduced but also thedevelopment of other cardiovascular conditions.