Cost Estimation of Machined Parts within an Aerospace Supply Chain

A generic, hierarchical, and multifidelity unit cost of acquisition estimating methodology for outside production machined parts is presented. The originality of the work lies with the method’s inherent capability of being able to generate multilevel and multifidelity cost relations for large volumes of parts utilizing process, supply chain costing data, and varying degrees of part design definition information. Estimates can be generated throughout the life cycle of a part using different grades of the combined information available. Considering design development for a given part, additional design definition may be used as it becomes available within the developed method to improve the quality of the resulting estimate. Via a process of analogous classification, parts are classified into groups of increasing similarity using design-based descriptors. A parametric estimating method is then applied to each subgroup of the machined part commodity in the direction of improved classification and using which, a relationship which links design variables to manufacturing cycle time may be generated. A rate cost reflective of the supply chain is then applied to the cycle time estimate for a given part to arrive at an estimate of make cost which is then totalled with the material and treatments cost components respectively to give an overall estimate of unit acquisition cost. Both the rate charge applied and the treatments cost calculated for a given procured part is derived via the use of ratio analysis.

Modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost at the concept stage

The work presented is concerned with the estimation of manufacturing cost at the concept design stage, when little technical information is readily available. The work focuses on the nose cowl sections of a wide range of engine nacelles built at Bombardier Aerospace Shorts of Belfast. A core methodology is presented that: defines manufacturing cost elements that are prominent; utilises technical parameters that are highly influential in generating those costs; establishes the linkage between these two; and builds the associated cost estimating relations into models. The methodology is readily adapted to deal with both the early and more mature conceptual design phases, which thereby highlights the generic, flexible and fundamental nature of the method. The early concept cost model simplifies cost as a cumulative element that can be estimated using higher level complexity ratings, while the mature concept cost model breaks manufacturing cost down into a number of constituents that are each driven by their own specific drivers. Both methodologies have an average error of less that ten percent when correlated with actual findings, thus achieving an acceptable level of accuracy. By way of validity and application, the research is firmly based on industrial case studies and practice and addresses the integration of design and manufacture through cost. The main contribution of the paper is the cost modelling methodology. The elemental modelling of the cost breakdown structure through materials, part fabrication, assembly and their associated drivers is relevant to the analytical design procedure, as it utilises design definition and complexity that is understood by engineers.