Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Notes from Some Small Countries: A Study of the 'New Punitiveness' in Ireland, Scotland and New Zealand

In recent years there has been a remarkable surge of interest in the concept of punitiveness in theoretical criminology. Accounts serve to emphasise rupture over continuity, drawing attention to the increased focus on managerialism, risk and expressive penal policies in countries such as England and the US. Criticisms of these accounts have drawn attention to the weak empirical base for such assertions and the continued relevance of local cultural, historical and political conditions in mediating the effect of more punitive trends. In light of the relative neglect of smaller jurisdictions in this literature it was decided to locate these debates in three small common law jurisdictions, namely, Ireland, Scotland and New Zealand over the period 1976-2006 with a view to assessing the empirical evidence for penal change. This was done using a broader definition of punitiveness than normally employed incorporating indices relating to the ‘front end’ (eg police powers) as well as the ‘back end’ (eg prison and probation) of the criminal justice system. Data were collected on the three case studies using a multi-method approach involving examination of extensive quantitative data, interviews with key criminal justice stakeholders and documentary analysis. The data provide some support for the ‘new punitiveness’ thesis in these countries through a pattern of increased legislative activity aimed at controlling violent and sexual offenders and significant increases in the lengths of sentences imposed. However, analysis of qualitative data and a larger number of variables reveals distinctly different patterns of punitiveness over the thirty year period in the three countries. It is argued that the study holds important lessons for comparative criminology into the ‘new punitiveness’. There is a need for qualitative as well as quantitative data; for multiple rather than singular indices across a wide range of areas (juvenile justice, prison conditions, etc); and for ‘front end’ as well as ‘back end’ indices.

Automated detection and measurement of isolated retinal arterioles by a combination of edge enhancement and cost analysis

Pressure myography studies have played a crucial role in our understanding of vascular physiology and pathophysiology. Such studies depend upon the reliable measurement of changes in the diameter of isolated vessel segments over time. Although several software packages are available to carry out such measurements on small arteries and veins, no such software exists to study smaller vessels (<50 µm in diameter). We provide here a new, freely available open-source algorithm, MyoTracker, to measure and track changes in the diameter of small isolated retinal arterioles. The program has been developed as an ImageJ plug-in and uses a combination of cost analysis and edge enhancement to detect the vessel walls. In tests performed on a dataset of 102 images, automatic measurements were found to be comparable to those of manual ones. The program was also able to track both fast and slow constrictions and dilations during intraluminal pressure changes and following application of several drugs. Variability in automated measurements during analysis of videos and processing times were also investigated and are reported. MyoTracker is a new software to assist during pressure myography experiments on small isolated retinal arterioles. It provides fast and accurate measurements with low levels of noise and works with both individual images and videos. Although the program was developed to work with small arterioles, it is also capable of tracking the walls of other types of microvessels, including venules and capillaries. It also works well with larger arteries, and therefore may provide an alternative to other packages developed for larger vessels when its features are considered advantageous.

Trends in Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: An Analysis of the CSO Survey in Income and Living Conditions (SILC)

Since 2008, Ireland has experienced the most severe economic and labour market crisis since the foundation of the State. These economic and labour market changes have had a stark impact on the standard of living across the Irish population. The rapid deterioration in the labour market, the rising level of household indebtedness and stringent austerity measures to plug the public finance deficit have had a widespread impact yet there is debate about where the heaviest burden has fallen and where the economic stress has been felt most. The paper analyses data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004 to 2011. The aim of the paper is to develop and test a measure of economic stress, which will capture some of the aspects of the rapid change in economic fortunes on Irish households that are not picked up by income alone. This includes tapping into features of the recession such as debt problems, unsustainable housing costs, and other difficulties associated with managing on reduced household income in a period of uncertainty. In testing such a measure we examine trends over time from boom to bust in the Irish economy and consider how economic stress is distributed across different socio-economic groups. The paper explores the distribution and level of economic stress across income class groups, social classes and the life-course and tests the thesis of ‘middle class squeeze’.

Effects of a demand-led evidence briefing service on the uptake and use of research evidence by commissioners of health services: protocol for a controlled before and after study

Background: Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) are mandated to use research evidence effectively to ensure optimum use of resources by the National Health Service (NHS), both in accelerating innovation and in stopping the use of less effective practices and models of service delivery. We intend to evaluate whether access to a demand-led evidence service improves uptake and use of research evidence by NHS commissioners compared with less intensive and less targeted alternatives. 

Methods/design: This is a controlled before and after study involving CCGs in the North of England. Participating CCGs will receive one of three interventions to support the use of research evidence in their decision-making:1) consulting plus responsive push of tailored evidence; 2) consulting plus an unsolicited push of non-tailored evidence; or 3) standard service unsolicited push of non-tailored evidence. Our primary outcome will be changed at 12 months from baseline of a CCGs ability to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence to support decision-making. Secondary outcomes will measure individual clinical leads and managers’ intentions to use research evidence in decision making. Documentary evidence of the use of the outputs of the service will be sought. A process evaluation will evaluate the nature and success of the interactions both within the sites and between commissioners and researchers delivering the service. 

Discussion: The proposed research will generate new knowledge of direct relevance and value to the NHS. The findings will help to clarify which elements of the service are of value in promoting the use of research evidence.Those involved in NHS commissioning will be able to use the results to inform how best to build the infrastructure they need to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence to support decision-making and to fulfil their statutory duties under the Health and Social Care Act.

Trends and Determinants of Work-Retirement Transitions under Changing Institutional Conditions: Germany, England and Japan compared

Many governments world-wide are promoting longer working life due to the social and economic repercussions of demographic change. However, not all workers are equally able to extend their employment careers. Thus, while national policies raise the overall level of labour market participation, they might create new social and labour market inequalities. This paper explores how institutional differences in the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan affect individual retirement decisions on the aggregate level, and variations in individuals’ degree of choice within and across countries. We investigate which groups of workers are disproportionately at risk of being ‘pushed’ out of employment, and how such inequalities have changed over time. We use comparable national longitudinal survey datasets focusing on the older population in England, Germany and Japan. Results point to cross-national differences in retirement transitions. Retirement transitions in Germany have occurred at an earlier age than in England and Japan. In Japan, the incidence of involuntary retirement is the lowest, reflecting an institutional context prescribing that employers provide employment until pension age, while Germany and England display substantial proportions of involuntary exits triggered by organisational-level redundancies, persistent early retirement plans or individual ill-health.

Repeatability and reliability of new air and water permeability tests for assessing the durability of high-performance concretes

This paper reports on the accuracy of new test methods developed to measure the air and water permeability of high-performance concretes (HPCs). Five representative HPC and one normal concrete (NC) mixtures were tested to estimate both repeatability and reliability of the proposed methods. Repeatability acceptance was adjudged using values of signal-noise ratio (SNR) and discrimination ratio (DR), and reliability was investigated by comparing against standard laboratory-based test methods (i.e., the RILEM gas permeability test and BS EN water penetration test). With SNR and DR values satisfying recommended criteria, it was concluded that test repeatability error has no significant influence on results. In addition, the research confirmed strong positive relationships between the proposed test methods and existing standard permeability assessment techniques. Based on these findings, the proposed test methods show strong potential to become recognized as international methods for determining the permeability of HPCs.

Application of SNPs for population genetics of nonmodel organisms:new opportunities and challenges

Recent improvements in the speed, cost and accuracy of next generation sequencing are revolutionizing the discovery of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). SNPs are increasingly being used as an addition to the molecular ecology toolkit in nonmodel organisms, but their efficient use remains challenging. Here, we discuss common issues when employing SNP markers, including the high numbers of markers typically employed, the effects of ascertainment bias and the inclusion of nonneutral loci in a marker panel. We provide a critique of considerations specifically associated with the application and population genetic analysis of SNPs in nonmodel taxa, focusing specifically on some of the most commonly applied methods.