67 resultados para Continuous-time Markov Chain


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We present an occultation of the newly discovered hot Jupiter system WASP-19, observed with the High Acuity Wide-field K-band Imager instrument on the VLT, in order to measure thermal emission from the planet's dayside at ~2µm. The light curve was analysed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to find the eclipse depth and the central transit time. The transit depth was found to be 0.366 +/- 0.072 per cent, corresponding to a brightness temperature of 2540 +/- 180 K. This is significantly higher than the calculated (zero-albedo) equilibrium temperature and indicates that the planet shows poor redistribution of heat to the night side, consistent with models of highly irradiated planets. Further observations are needed to confirm the existence of a temperature inversion and possibly molecular emission lines. The central eclipse time was found to be consistent with a circular orbit.

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We have used four telescopes at different longitudes to obtain near-continuous light-curve coverage of the star HD80606 as it was transited by its ~4-MJup planet. The observations were performed during the predicted transit windows around 2008 October 25 and 2009 February 14. Our data set is unique in that it simultaneously constrains the duration of the transit and the planet's period. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the light curves, combined with constraints from radial-velocity data, yields system parameters consistent with previously reported values. We find a planet-to-star radius ratio marginally smaller than previously reported, corresponding to a planet radius of Rp = 0.921 +/- 0.036RJup.

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Context. Several competing scenarios for planetary-system formation and evolution seek to explain how hot Jupiters came to be so close to their parent stars. Most planetary parameters evolve with time, making it hard to distinguish between models. The obliquity of an orbit with respect to the stellar rotation axis is thought to be more stable than other parameters such as eccentricity. Most planets, to date, appear aligned with the stellar rotation axis; the few misaligned planets so far detected are massive (> 2 MJ). Aims: Our goal is to measure the degree of alignment between planetary orbits and stellar spin axes, to search for potential correlations with eccentricity or other planetary parameters and to measure long term radial velocity variability indicating the presence of other bodies in the system. Methods: For transiting planets, the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect allows the measurement of the sky-projected angle ß between the stellar rotation axis and a planet's orbital axis. Using the HARPS spectrograph, we observed the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for six transiting hot Jupiters found by the WASP consortium. We combine these with long term radial velocity measurements obtained with CORALIE. We used a combined analysis of photometry and radial velocities, fitting model parameters with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. After obtaining ß we attempt to statistically determine the distribution of the real spin-orbit angle ?. Results: We found that three of our targets have ß above 90°: WASP-2b: ß = 153°+11-15, WASP-15b: ß = 139.6°+5.2-4.3 and WASP-17b: ß = 148.5°+5.1-4.2; the other three (WASP-4b, WASP-5b and WASP-18b) have angles compatible with 0°. We find no dependence between the misaligned angle and planet mass nor with any other planetary parameter. All six orbits are close to circular, with only one firm detection of eccentricity e = 0.00848+0.00085-0.00095 in WASP-18b. No long-term radial acceleration was detected for any of the targets. Combining all previous 20 measurements of ß and our six and transforming them into a distribution of ? we find that between about 45 and 85% of hot Jupiters have ? > 30°. Conclusions: Most hot Jupiters are misaligned, with a large variety of spin-orbit angles. We find observations and predictions using the Kozai mechanism match well. If these observational facts are confirmed in the future, we may then conclude that most hot Jupiters are formed from a dynamical and tidal origin without the necessity to use type I or II migration. At present, standard disc migration cannot explain the observations without invoking at least another additional process.

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In this paper, we consider the problem of tracking similar objects. We show how a mean field approach can be used to deal with interacting targets and we compare it with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two mean field implementations are presented. The first one is more general and uses particle filtering. We discuss some simplifications of the base algorithm that reduce the computation time. The second one is based on suitable Gaussian approximations of probability densities that lead to a set of self-consistent equations for the means and covariances. These equations give the Kalman solution if there is no interaction. Experiments have been performed on two kinds of sequences. The first kind is composed of a single long sequence of twenty roaming ants and was previously analysed using MCMC. In this case, our mean field algorithms obtain substantially better results. The second kind corresponds to selected sequences of a football match in which the interaction avoids tracker coalescence in situations where independent trackers fail.

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Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is a common pathogen in cases of atypical pneumonia. Most individuals with Mycoplasma pneumonia run a benign course, with non-specific symptoms of malaise, fever and non-productive cough that usually resolve with no long-term sequelae. Acute lung injury is not commonly seen in Mycoplasma pneumonia. We report a case of acute respiratory distress syndrome cause by M. pneumoniae diagnosed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

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We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the timeseries momentum documented recently. The underlying stochastic delay differentialsystem facilitates the analysis of effects of different time horizons used bymomentum trading. By studying an optimal asset allocation problem, we find thatthe performance of time series momentum strategy can be significantly improvedby combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect tomarket trend and volatility. Furthermore, the results also hold for different timehorizons, the out-of-sample tests and with short-sale constraints. The outperformanceof the optimal strategy is immune to market states, investor sentiment andmarket volatility.

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Pseudomonas aeruginosa genotyping relies mainly upon DNA fingerprinting methods, which can be subjective, expensive and time-consuming. The detection of at least three different clonal P. aeruginosa strains in patients attending two cystic fibrosis (CF) centres in a single Australian city prompted the design of a non-gel-based PCR method to enable clinical microbiology laboratories to readily identify these clonal strains. We designed a detection method utilizing heat-denatured P. aeruginosa isolates and a ten-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profile. Strain differences were detected by SYBR Green-based real-time PCR and high-resolution melting curve analysis (HRM10SNP assay). Overall, 106 P. aeruginosa sputum isolates collected from 74 patients with CF, as well as five reference strains, were analysed with the HRM10SNP assay, and the results were compared with those obtained by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The HRM10SNP assay accurately identified all 45 isolates as members of one of the three major clonal strains characterized by PFGE in two Brisbane CF centres (Australian epidemic strain-1, Australian epidemic strain-2 and P42) from 61 other P. aeruginosa strains from Australian CF patients and two representative overseas epidemic strain isolates. The HRM10SNP method is simple, is relatively inexpensive and can be completed in <3 h. In our setting, it could be made easily available for clinical microbiology laboratories to screen for local P. aeruginosa strains and to guide infection control policies. Further studies are needed to determine whether the HRM10SNP assay can also be modified to detect additional clonal strains that are prevalent in other CF centres.

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To cope with the rapid growth of multimedia applications that requires dynamic levels of quality of service (QoS), cross-layer (CL) design, where multiple protocol layers are jointly combined, has been considered to provide diverse QoS provisions for mobile multimedia networks. However, there is a lack of a general mathematical framework to model such CL scheme in wireless networks with different types of multimedia classes. In this paper, to overcome this shortcoming, we therefore propose a novel CL design for integrated real-time/non-real-time traffic with strict preemptive priority via a finite-state Markov chain. The main strategy of the CL scheme is to design a Markov model by explicitly including adaptive modulation and coding at the physical layer, queuing at the data link layer, and the bursty nature of multimedia traffic classes at the application layer. Utilizing this Markov model, several important performance metrics in terms of packet loss rate, delay, and throughput are examined. In addition, our proposed framework is exploited in various multimedia applications, for example, the end-to-end real-time video streaming and CL optimization, which require the priority-based QoS adaptation for different applications. More importantly, the CL framework reveals important guidelines as to optimize the network performance

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The hot-JupiterWASP-10bwas reported by Maciejewski et al. to showtransit timing variations (TTVs) with an amplitude of ~3.5 min. These authors proposed that the observed TTVs were caused by a 0.1MJup perturbing companion with an orbital period of ~5.23 d, and hence, close to the outer 5:3 mean-motion resonance with WASP-10b. To test this scenario, we present eight new transit light curves of WASP-10b obtained with the Faulkes Telescope North and the Liverpool Telescope. The new light curves, together with 22 previously published ones, were modelled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo transit fitting code. Transit depth differences reported forWASP-10b are thought to be due to starspot-induced brightness modulation of the host star. Assuming the star is brighter at the activity minimum, we favour a small planetary radius. We find Rp = 1.039+0.043 -0.049RJup in agreement with Johnson et al. and Maciejewski et al. Recent studies find no evidence for a significant eccentricity in this system. We present consistent system parameters for a circular orbit and refine the orbital ephemeris ofWASP-10b. Our homogeneously derived transit times do not support the previous claimed TTV signal, which was strongly dependent on two previously published transits that have been incorrectly normalized. Nevertheless, a linear ephemeris is not a statistically good fit to the transit times of WASP-10b. We show that the observed transit time variations are due to spot occultation features or systematics. We discuss and exemplify the effects of occultation spot features in the measured transit times and show that despite spot occultation during egress and ingress being difficult to distinguish in the transit light curves, they have a significant effect in the measured transit times. We conclude that if we account for spot features, the transit times of WASP-10b are consistent with a linear ephemeris with the exception of one transit (epoch 143) which is a partial transit. Therefore, there is currently no evidence for the existence of a companion to WASP-10b. Our results support the lack of TTVs of hot-Jupiters reported for the Kepler sample. 

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The global socioeconomic importance of helminth parasitic disease is underpinned by the considerable clinical impact on millions of people. While helminth polyparasitism is considered common in the Philippines, little has been done to survey its extent in endemic communities. High morphological similarity of eggs between related species complicates conventional microscopic diagnostic methods which are known to lack sensitivity, particularly in low intensity infections. Multiplex quantitative PCR diagnostic methods can provide rapid, simultaneous identification of multiple helminth species from a single stool sample. We describe a multiplex assay for the differentiation of Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus, Ancylostoma, Taenia saginata and Taenia solium, building on our previously published findings for Schistosoma japonicum. Of 545 human faecal samples examined, 46.6% were positive for at least three different parasite species. High prevalences of S. japonicum (90.64%), A. lumbricoides (58.17%), T. saginata (42.57%) and A. duodenale (48.07%) were recorded. Neither T. solium nor N. americanus were found to be present. The utility of molecular diagnostic methods for monitoring helminth parasite prevalence provides new information on the extent of polyparasitism in the Philippines municipality of Palapag. These methods and findings have potential global implications for the monitoring of neglected tropical diseases and control measures.

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BACKGROUND: The Philippines has a population of approximately 103 million people, of which 6.7 million live in schistosomiasis-endemic areas with 1.8 million people being at risk of infection with Schistosoma japonicum. Although the country-wide prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in the Philippines is relatively low, the prevalence of schistosomiasis can be high, approaching 65% in some endemic areas. Of the currently available microscopy-based diagnostic techniques for detecting schistosome infections in the Philippines and elsewhere, most exhibit varying diagnostic performances, with the Kato-Katz (KK) method having particularly poor sensitivity for detecting low intensity infections. This suggests that the actual prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica may be much higher than previous reports have indicated.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Six barangay (villages) were selected to determine the prevalence of S. japonicum in humans in the municipality of Palapag, Northern Samar. Fecal samples were collected from 560 humans and examined by the KK method and a validated real-time PCR (qPCR) assay. A high S. japonicum prevalence (90.2%) was revealed using qPCR whereas the KK method indicated a lower prevalence (22.9%). The geometric mean eggs per gram (GMEPG) determined by the qPCR was 36.5 and 11.5 by the KK. These results, particularly those obtained by the qPCR, indicate that the prevalence of schistosomiasis in this region of the Philippines is much higher than historically reported.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite being more expensive, qPCR can complement the KK procedure, particularly for surveillance and monitoring of areas where extensive schistosomiasis control has led to low prevalence and intensity infections and where schistosomiasis elimination is on the horizon, as for example in southern China.

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Thermocouples are one of the most popular devices for temperature measurement due to their robustness, ease of manufacture and installation, and low cost. However, when used in the harsh environment found in combustion systems and automotive engine exhausts, large wire diameters are required and consequently the measurement bandwidth is reduced. This paper describes two new algorithmic compensation techniques based on blind deconvolution to address this loss of high-frequency signal components using the measurements from two thermocouples. In particular, a continuous-time approach is proposed, combined with a cross-relation blind deconvolution for parameter estimation. A feature of this approach is that no a priori assumption is made about the time constant ratio of the two thermocouples. The advantages, including small estimation variance and limitations of the method, are highlighted using results from simulation and test rig studies.

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Closing feedback loops using an IEEE 802.11b ad hoc wireless communication network incurs many challenges sensitivity to varying channel conditions and lower physical transmission rates tend to limit the bandwidth of the communication channel. Given that the bandwidth usage and control performance are linked, a method of adapting the sampling interval based on an 'a priori', static sampling policy has been proposed and, more significantly, assuring stability in the mean square sense using discrete-time Markov jump linear system theory. Practical issues including current limitations of the 802.11 b protocol, the sampling policy and stability are highlighted. Simulation results on a cart-mounted inverted pendulum show that closed-loop stability can be improved using sample rate adaptation and that the control design criteria can be met in the presence of channel errors and severe channel contention.

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Raised bog peat deposits form important archives for reconstructing past changes in climate. Precise and reliable age models are of vital importance for interpreting such archives. We propose enhanced, Markov chain Monte Carlo based methods for obtaining age models from radiocarbon-dated peat cores, based on the assumption of piecewise linear accumulation. Included are automatic choice of sections, a measure of the goodness of fit and outlier downweighting. The approach is illustrated by using a peat core from the Netherlands.