Modelling recovery of Celtic Sea demersal fish community size-structure

The Large Fish Indicator (LFI) is a size-based indicator of fish community state. The indicator describes the proportion by biomass of a fish community represented by fish larger than some size threshold. From an observed peak value of 0.49 in 1990, the Celtic Sea LFI declined until about 2000 and then fluctuated around 0.10 throughout the 2000s. This decline in the LFI reflected a period of diminishing ‘large’ fish biomass, probably related to high levels of size selective fishing. During the study period, fishing mortality was maintained at consistently high values. Average biomass of ‘small’ fish fluctuated across the whole time series, showing a weak positive trend in recent years. Inter-annual variation in the LFI was increasingly driven by fluctuation in small fish biomass as large fish biomass declined. Simulations using a size-based ecosystem model suggested that recovery in Celtic Sea fish community size-structure (LFI) could demand at least 20% reductions in fishing pressure and occur on decadal timescales.

Construction Dispute Resolution in Ireland during Recession: Best Practice for Small-to-Medium Enterprises

The purpose of this paper is to identify best practice construction dispute resolution in small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) within Ireland during the recent economic recession. A sequential mixed methodology encompassing a detailed literature review, case studies, and questionnaire survey is adopted, with results analyzed using both exploratory (data reduction) and confirmatory (structural equation modelling) factor analysis. The results show that four core aspects should be adopted by SMEs to achieve best practice construction dispute resolution in recession: third-party intervention, adoption of a streamlined process, proactive party characteristics, and the use of legal professionals. Numerous studies of this subject have been conducted; however, no research has been done to date documenting best practice in construction dispute resolution within SMEs, particularly in light of the economic recession in Ireland. It is clear that dispute resolution in Ireland is currently undergoing fundamental changes, and time is necessary to see if the new Construction Contracts Act 2013 will help this practice. Therefore, it is a fundamental requirement for project management and legal professionals to acknowledge the changing environment attributable to the economic downturn and the resultant SME best practices in dispute resolution. This paper fulfills a gap in knowledge with the emergence of the economic recession and the evolution of best practice in dispute resolution within SMEs in the Irish construction sector.

Material Logistics in Urban Construction Sites: A Structural Equation Model

Aim: The aim of this paper is to identify best practice relating to the effective management of materials in an urban, confined construction site, using structural equation modelling.

Methodology: A literature review, case study analysis and questionnaire survey are employed, with the results scrutinised using confirmatory factor analysis in the form of structural equation modelling.

Results: The following are the leading strategies in the management of materials in a confined urban site environment; (1) Consult and review the project programme, (2) Effective communication and delivery, (3) Implement site safety management plans, and (4) Proactive spatial monitoring and control.

Implication for Practice: With the relentless expansion of urban centres and the increasing high cost of materials, any potential savings made on-site would translate into significant monetary concessions on completion of a development.

Originality/Value: As on-site project management professionals successfully identify and implement the various strategies in the management of plant and materials on a confined urban site, successful resource management in this restrictive environment is attainable.

Innovative Aspect of Paper: An empirical study of three different construction sites in three different countries (Ireland, England and USA) together with a questionnaire survey from the industry, investigating the managerial strategies in the management of plant and material in confined urban site environments

The performance of concrete exposed to marine environments: predictive modelling and use of laboratory/on site test methods

This paper reports an approach by which laboratory based testing and numerical modelling can be combined to predict the long term performance of a range of concretes exposed to marine environments. Firstly, a critical review of the test methods for assessing the chloride penetration resistance of concrete is given. The repeatability of the different test results is also included. In addition to the test methods, a numerical simulation model is used to explore the test data further to obtain long-term chloride ingress trends. The combined use of testing and modelling is validated with the help of long-term chloride ingress data from a North Sea exposure site. In summary, the paper outlines a methodology for determining the long term performance of concrete in marine environments.

Investigation of the process energy demand in polymer extrusion: a brief review and an experimental study

Extrusion is one of the fundamental production methods in the polymer processing industry and is used in the production of a large number of commodities in a diverse industrial sector. Being an energy intensive production method, process energy efficiency is one of the major concerns and the selection of the most energy efficient processing conditions is a key to reducing operating costs. Usually, extruders consume energy through the drive motor, barrel heaters, cooling fans, cooling water pumps, gear pumps, etc. Typically the drive motor is the largest energy consuming device in an extruder while barrel/die heaters are responsible for the second largest energy demand. This study is focused on investigating the total energy demand of an extrusion plant under various processing conditions while identifying ways to optimise the energy efficiency. Initially, a review was carried out on the monitoring and modelling of the energy consumption in polymer extrusion. Also, the power factor, energy demand and losses of a typical extrusion plant were discussed in detail. The mass throughput, total energy consumption and power factor of an extruder were experimentally observed over different processing conditions and the total extruder energy demand was modelled empirically and also using a commercially available extrusion simulation software. The experimental results show that extruder energy demand is heavily coupled between the machine, material and process parameters. The total power predicted by the simulation software exhibits a lagging offset compared with the experimental measurements. Empirical models are in good agreement with the experimental measurements and hence these can be used in studying process energy behaviour in detail and to identify ways to optimise the process energy efficiency.

Building Information Modelling Energy Performance Assessment on Domestic Dwellings: A Comparative Study

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is growing in pace, not only in design and construction stages, but also in the analysis of facilities throughout their life cycle. With this continued growth and utilisation of BIM processes, comes the possibility to adopt such procedures, to accurately measure the energy efficiency of buildings, to accurately estimate their energy usage. To this end, the aim of this research is to investigate if the introduction of BIM Energy Performance Assessment in the form of software analysis, provides accurate results, when compared with actual energy consumption recorded. Through selective sampling, three domestic case studies are scrutinised, with baseline figures taken from existing energy providers, the results scrutinised and compared with calculations provided from two separate BIM energy analysis software packages. Of the numerous software packages available, criterion sampling is used to select two of the most prominent platforms available on the market today. The two packages selected for scrutiny are Integrated Environmental Solutions - Virtual Environment (IES-VE) and Green Building Studio (GBS). The results indicate that IES-VE estimated the energy use in region of ±8% in two out of three case studies while GBS estimated usage approximately ±5%. The findings indicate that the introduction of BIM energy performance assessment, using proprietary software analysis, is a viable alternative to manual calculations of building energy use, mainly due to the accuracy and speed of assessing, even the most complex models. Given the surge in accurate and detailed BIM models and the importance placed on the continued monitoring and control of buildings energy use within today’s environmentally conscious society, this provides an alternative means by which to accurately assess a buildings energy usage, in a quick and cost effective manner.

'Regina v John Terry': The Discursive Construction of an Alleged Racist Event

This article explores the conformation in discourse of a verbal exchange and its subsequent mediatised and legal ramifications. The event concerns an allegedly racist insult directed by high profile English professional footballer John Terry towards another player, Anton Ferdinand, during a televised match in October 2011. The substance of Terry’s utterance, which included the noun phrase ‘fucking black cunt’, was found by a Chief Magistrate not to be a racist insult, although the fact that these actual words were framed within the utterance was not in dispute. The upshot of this ruling was that Terry was acquitted of a racially aggravated public order offence. A subsequent investigation by the regulatory commission of the English Football Association (FA) ruled, almost a year after the event, that Terry was guilty of racially abusing Ferdinand. Terry was banned for four matches and fined £220,000.

It is our contention that this event, played out in legal rulings, social media and print and broadcast media, constitutes a complex web of linguistic structures and strategies in discourse, and as such lends itself well to analysis with a broad range of tools from pragmatics, discourse analysis and cognitive linguistics. Amongst other things, such an analysis can help explain the seemingly anomalous - even contradictory - position adopted in the legal ruling with regard to the speech act status of ‘fucking black cunt’; namely, that the racist content of the utterance was not contested but that the speaker was found not to have issued a racist insult. Over its course, the article addresses this broader issue by making reference to the systemic-functional interpersonal function of language, particularly to the concepts of modality, polarity and modalisation. It also draws on models of verbal irony from linguistic pragmatics, notably from the theory of irony as echoic mention (c.f. Sperber and Wilson, 1981; Wilson and Sperber, 1992). Furthermore, the article makes use of the cognitive-linguistic framework, Text World Theory (c.f. Gavins, 2007; Werth, 1999) to examine the discourse positions occupied by key actors and adapts, from cognitive poetics, the theory of mind-modelling (c.f. Stockwell, 2009) to explore the conceptual means through which these actors discursively negotiate the event.

It is argued that the pragmatic and cognitive strategies that frame the entire incident go a long way towards mitigating the impact of so ostensibly stark an act of racial abuse. Moreover, it is suggested here that the reconciliation of Terry’s action was a result of the confluence of strategies of discourse with relations of power as embodied by the media, the law and perceptions of nationhood embraced by contemporary football culture. It is further proposed that the outcome of this episode, where the FA was put in the spotlight, and where both the conflict and its key antagonists were ‘intranational’, was strongly impelled by the institution of English football and its governing body both to reproduce and maintain social, cultural and ethnic cohesion and to avoid any sense that the event featured a discernable ‘out-group’.

Two-Stage Orthogonal Least Squares Methods for Neural Network Construction

A number of neural networks can be formulated as the linear-in-the-parameters models. Training such networks can be transformed to a model selection problem where a compact model is selected from all the candidates using subset selection algorithms. Forward selection methods are popular fast subset selection approaches. However, they may only produce suboptimal models and can be trapped into a local minimum. More recently, a two-stage fast recursive algorithm (TSFRA) combining forward selection and backward model refinement has been proposed to improve the compactness and generalization performance of the model. This paper proposes unified two-stage orthogonal least squares methods instead of the fast recursive-based methods. In contrast to the TSFRA, this paper derives a new simplified relationship between the forward and the backward stages to avoid repetitive computations using the inherent orthogonal properties of the least squares methods. Furthermore, a new term exchanging scheme for backward model refinement is introduced to reduce computational demand. Finally, given the error reduction ratio criterion, effective and efficient forward and backward subset selection procedures are proposed. Extensive examples are presented to demonstrate the improved model compactness constructed by the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Issues in fe modelling of FRP strengthened masonry arch bridges

Externally bonding of FRP composites is an effective technique for retrofitting historical masonry arch structures. A major failure mode in such strengthened structures is the debonding of FRP from the masonry. The bond behaviour between FRP and masonry thus plays a crucial role in these structures. Major challenges exist in the finite element modelling of such structures, such as modelling of mixed Mode-I and Mode-II bond behaviour between the FRP and the curved masonry substrate, modelling of existing damages in the masonry arches, consideration of loading history in the unstrengthened and strengthened structure etc. This paper presents a rigorous FE model for simulating FRP strengthened masonry arch structures. A detailed solid model was developed for simulating the masonry and a mixed-mode interface model was used for simulating the FRP-to-masonry bond behaviour. The model produces results in very close agreement with test results.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

A Scheme Design of Cloud + End Technology in Demand Side Management

Demand Side Management (DSM) plays an important role in Smart Grid. It has large scale access points, massive users, heterogeneous infrastructure and dispersive participants. Moreover, cloud computing which is a service model is characterized by resource on-demand, high reliability and large scale integration and so on and the game theory is a useful tool to the dynamic economic phenomena. In this study, a scheme design of cloud + end technology is proposed to solve technical and economic problems of the DSM. The architecture of cloud + end is designed to solve technical problems in the DSM. In particular, a construct model of cloud + end is presented to solve economic problems in the DSM based on game theories. The proposed method is tested on a DSM cloud + end public service system construction in a city of southern China. The results demonstrate the feasibility of these integrated solutions which can provide a reference for the popularization and application of the DSM in china.

Modelling the fresh properties of self-compacting concrete using support vector machine approach

The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to investigate the feasibility using support vector machines (SVM) for the prediction of the fresh properties of self-compacting concrete. The radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial kernels were used to predict these properties as a function of the content of mix components. The fresh properties were assessed with the slump flow, T50, T60, V-funnel time, Orimet time, and blocking ratio (L-box). The retention of these tests was also measured at 30 and 60 min after adding the first water. The water dosage varied from 188 to 208 L/m3, the dosage of superplasticiser (SP) from 3.8 to 5.8 kg/m3, and the volume of coarse aggregates from 220 to 360 L/m3. In total, twenty mixes were used to measure the fresh state properties with different mixture compositions. RBF kernel was more accurate compared to polynomial kernel based support vector machines with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 26.9 (correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.974) for slump flow prediction, a RMSE of 0.55 (R2 = 0.910) for T50 (s) prediction, a RMSE of 1.71 (R2 = 0.812) for T60 (s) prediction, a RMSE of 0.1517 (R2 = 0.990) for V-funnel time prediction, a RMSE of 3.99 (R2 = 0.976) for Orimet time prediction, and a RMSE of 0.042 (R2 = 0.988) for L-box ratio prediction, respectively. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the dosage of cement and limestone powder, the water content, the volumes of coarse aggregate and sand, the dosage of SP and the testing time on the predicted test responses. The analysis indicates that the proposed SVM RBF model can gain a high precision, which provides an alternative method for predicting the fresh properties of SCC.