60 resultados para Complex system


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Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis (SIA) has identified the terrestrial subsidy of freshwater food-webs but relies on different 13C fractionation in aquatic and terrestrial primary producers. However dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is partly comprised of 13C depleted respiration of terrestrial C and ‘old’ C derived from weathering of catchment geology. SIA thus fails to differentiate between the contribution of old and recently fixed terrestrial C. DIC in alkaline lakes is partially derived from weathering of 14C-free carbonaceous bedrock This
yields an artificial age offset leading samples to appear significantly older than their actual age. As such, 14C can be used as a biomarker to identify the proportion of autochthonous C in the food-web. With terrestrial C inputs likely to increase, the origin and utilisation of ‘old’ or ‘recent’ allochthonous C in the food-web can also be determined. Stable isotopes and 14C were measured for biota, particulate organic matter (POM), DIC and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, a humic but alkaline lake. High winter δ15N values in calanoid zooplankton (δ15N =24‰) relative to phytoplankton and POM (δ15N =6‰ and 12‰ respectively) may reflect several microbial trophic levels between terrestrial C and calanoids. Furthermore winter calanoid 14C ages are consistent with DOC from inflowing rivers (87 and 75 years BP respectively) but not phytoplankton (355 years BP). Summer calanoid δ13N, δ15N and 14C (312 years BP) indicate greater reliance on phytoplankton. There is also temporal and spatial variation in DIC, DOC and POM C isotopes.

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Globally lakes bury and remineralise significant quantities of terrestrial C, and the associated flux of terrestrial C strongly influences their functioning. Changing deposition chemistry, land use and climate induced impacts on hydrology will affect soil biogeochemistry and terrestrial C export1 and hence lake ecology with potential feedbacks for regional and global C cycling. C and nitrogen stable isotope analysis (SIA) has identified the terrestrial subsidy of freshwater food webs. The approach relies on different 13C fractionation in aquatic and terrestrial primary producers, but also that inorganic C demands of aquatic primary producers are partly met by 13C depleted C from respiration of terrestrial C, and ‘old’ C derived from weathering of catchment geology. SIA thus fails to differentiate between the contributions of old and recently fixed terrestrial C. Natural abundance 14C can be used as an additional biomarker to untangle riverine food webs2 where aquatic and terrestrial δ 13C overlap, but may also be valuable for examining the age and origin of C in the lake. Primary production in lakes is based on dissolved inorganic C (DIC). DIC in alkaline lakes is partially derived from weathering of carbonaceous bedrock, a proportion of which is14C-free. The low 14C activity yields an artificial age offset leading samples to appear hundreds to thousands of years older than their actual age. As such, 14C can be used to identify the proportion of autochthonous C in the food-web. With terrestrial C inputs likely to increase, the origin and utilisation of ‘fossil’ or ‘recent’ allochthonous C in the food-web can also be determined. Stable isotopes and 14C were measured for biota, particulate organic matter (POM), DIC and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, a humic alkaline lake. Temporal and spatial variation was evident in DIC, DOC and POM C isotopes with implications for the fluctuation in terrestrial export processes. Ramped pyrolysis of lake surface sediment indicates the burial of two C components. 14C activity (507 ± 30 BP) of sediment combusted at 400˚C was consistent with algal values and younger than bulk sediment values (1097 ± 30 BP). The sample was subsequently combusted at 850˚C, yielding 14C values (1471 ± 30 BP) older than the bulk sediment age, suggesting that fossil terrestrial carbon is also buried in the sediment. Stable isotopes in the food web indicate that terrestrial organic C is also utilised by lake organisms. High winter δ 15N values in calanoid zooplankton (δ 15N = 24%¸) relative to phytoplankton and POM (δ 15N = 6h and 12h respectively) may reflect several microbial trophic levels between terrestrial C and calanoids. Furthermore winter calanoid 14C ages are consistent with DOC from an inflowing river (75 ± 24 BP), not phytoplankton (367 ± 70 BP). Summer calanoid δ 13C, δ 15N and 14C (345 ± 80 BP) indicate greater reliance on phytoplankton.

1 Monteith, D.T et al., (2007) Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature, 450:537-535

2 Caraco, N., et al.,(2010) Millennial-aged organic carbon subsidies to a modern river food web. Ecology,91: 2385-2393.

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Lake food webs were in the past viewed as being fuelled solely by primary production – i.e. by photosynthetic plants and algae. However this has changed as the exports of terrestrial areas into lakes have been taken into account. Previously, terrestrial carbon in lakes was thought to have been buried in sediments or exported to the atmosphere, however recent studies have indicated that terrestrial carbon can supplement primary production in some lakes, or in others be the dominant source of production for the lake food web. In this study radiocarbon has been used in conjunction with stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to show the utilisation of terrestrial carbon in the food web. The fate of terrestrial carbon in the lake will be discussed as well as the possible mechanisms for the transfer of terrestrial carbon for utilisation in the lake.

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Objective: To apply the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) framework for development and evaluation of trials of complex interventions to a primary healthcare intervention to promote secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. Study Design: Case report of intervention development. Methods: First, literature relating to secondary prevention and lifestyle change was reviewed. Second, a preliminary intervention was modeled, based on literature findings and focus group interviews with patients (n = 23) and staff (n = 29) from 4 general practices. Participants’ experiences of and attitudes toward key intervention components were explored. Third, the preliminary intervention was pilot-tested in 4 general practices. After delivery of the pilot intervention, practitioners evaluated the training sessions, and qualitative data relating to experiences of the intervention were collected using semistructured interviews with staff (n = 10) and patient focus groups (n = 17). Results: Literature review identified 3 intervention components: a structured recall system, practitioner training, and patient information. Initial qualitative data identified variations in recall system design, training requirements (medication prescribing, facilitating behavior change), and information appropriate to the prospective study participants. Identifying detailed structures within intervention components clarified how the intervention could be tailored to individual practice, practitioner, and patient needs while preserving the theoretical functions of the components. Findings from the pilot phase informed further modeling of the intervention, reducing administrative time, increasing practical content of training, and omitting unhelpful patient information. Conclusion: Application of the MRC framework helped to determine the feasibility and development of a complex intervention for primary care research.

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We consider the problem of train planning or scheduling for large, busy, complex train stations, which are common in Europe and elsewhere, though not in North America. We develop the constraints and objectives for this problem, but these are too computationally complex to solve by standard combinatorial search or integer programming methods. Also, the problem is somewhat political in nature, that is, it does not have a clear objective function because it involves multiple train operators with conflicting interests. We therefore develop scheduling heuristics analogous to those successfully adopted by train planners using ''manual'' methods. We tested the model and algorithms by applying to a typical large station that exhibits most of the complexities found in practice. The results compare well with those found by traditional methods, and take account of cost and preference trade-offs not handled by those methods. With successive refinements, the algorithm eventually took only a few seconds to run, the time depending on the version of the algorithm and the scheduling problem. The scheduling models and algorithms developed and tested here can be used on their own, or as key components for a more general system for train scheduling for a rail line or network.Train scheduling for a busy station includes ensuring that there are no conflicts between several hundred trains per day going in and out of the station on intersecting paths from multiple in-lines and out-lines to multiple platforms, while ensuring that each train is allowed at least its minimum required headways, dwell time, turnaround time and trip time. This has to be done while minimizing (costs of) deviations from desired times, platforms or lines, allowing for conflicts due to through-platforms, dead-end platforms, multiple sub-platforms, and possible constraints due to infrastructure, safety or business policy.

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Structural and thermodynamic properties of spherical particles carrying classical spins are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The potential energy is the sum of short range, purely repulsive pair contributions, and spin-spin interactions. These last are of the dipole-dipole form, with however, a crucial change of sign. At low density and high temperature the system is a homogeneous fluid of weakly interacting particles and short range spin correlations. With decreasing temperature particles condense into an equilibrium population of free floating vesicles. The comparison with the electrostatic case, giving rise to predominantly one-dimensional aggregates under similar conditions, is discussed. In both cases condensation is a continuous transformation, provided the isotropic part of the interatomic potential is purely repulsive. At low temperature the model allows us to investigate thermal and mechanical properties of membranes. At intermediate temperatures it provides a simple model to investigate equilibrium polymerization in a system giving rise to predominantly two-dimensional aggregates.

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Recent experimental neutron diffraction data and ab initio molecular dynamics simulation of the ionic liquid dimethylimidazolium chloride ([dmim]Cl) have provided a structural description of the system at the molecular level. However, partial radial distribution functions calculated from the latter, when compared to previous classical simulation results, highlight some limitations in the structural description offered by force fieldbased simulations. With the availability of ab initio data it is possible to improve the classical description of [dmim]Cl by using the force matching approach, and the strategy for fitting complex force fields in their original functional form is discussed. A self-consistent optimization method for the generation of classical potentials of general functional form is presented and applied, and a force field that better reproduces the observed first principles forces is obtained. When used in simulation, it predicts structural data which reproduces more faithfully that observed in the ab initio studies. Some possible refinements to the technique, its application, and the general suitability of common potential energy functions used within many ionic liquid force fields are discussed.

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This study finds evidence that attempts to reduce costs and error rates in the Inland Revenue through the use of e-commerce technology are flawed. While it is technically possible to write software that will record tax data, and then transmit it to the Inland Revenue, there is little demand for this service. The key finding is that the tax system is so complex that many people are unable to complete their own tax returns. This complexity cannot be overcome by well-designed software. The recommendation is to encourage the use of agents to assist taxpayers or simplify the tax system. The Inland Revenue is interested in saving administrative costs and errors by encouraging electronic submission of tax returns. To achieve these objectives, given the raw data it would seem clear that the focus should be on facilitating the work of agents.

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Aim. This paper is a report of a study to describe how treatment fidelity is being enhanced and monitored, using a model from the National Institutes of Health Behavior Change Consortium. Background. The objective of treatment fidelity is to minimize errors in interpreting research trial outcomes, and to ascribe those outcomes directly to the intervention at hand. Treatment fidelity procedures are included in trials of complex interventions to account for inferences made from study outcomes. Monitoring treatment fidelity can help improve study design, maximize reliability of results, increase statistical power, determine whether theory-based interventions are responsible for observed changes, and inform the research dissemination process. Methods. Treatment fidelity recommendations from the Behavior Change Consortium were applied to the SPHERE study (Secondary Prevention of Heart DiseasE in GeneRal PracticE), a randomized controlled trial of a complex intervention. Procedures to enhance and monitor intervention implementation included standardizing training sessions, observing intervention consultations, structuring patient recall systems, and using written practice and patient care plans. The research nurse plays an important role in monitoring intervention implementation. Findings. Several methods of applying treatment fidelity procedures to monitoring interventions are possible. The procedure used may be determined by availability of appropriate personnel, fiscal constraints, or time limits. Complex interventions are not straightforward and necessitate a monitoring process at trial stage. Conclusion. The Behavior Change Consortium’s model of treatment fidelity is useful for structuring a system to monitor the implementation of a complex intervention, and helps to increase the reliability and validity of evaluation findings.

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Within the United Kingdom there is growing awareness of the need to identify and support the small number of children who are living in families experiencing multiple problems. Research indicates that adverse experiences in childhood can result in poor outcomes in adulthood in terms of lack of employment, poorer physical and mental health and increases in social problems experienced. It is acknowledged that most of these children are known to child welfare professionals and that some are referred to social services, subsequently entering the child protection system. This paper reports research conducted with twenty-eight experienced child welfare professionals. It explores their views about families known to the child protection system with long-term and complex needs in relation to the characteristics of children and their families; the process of intervention with families; and the effects of organisational arrangements on practice. The research indicates that these families are characterised by the range and depth of the problems experienced by the adults, such as domestic violence, mental health difficulties and substance misuse problems, and the need for professionals to have good inter-personal skills and access to specialist therapeutic services if families are to be supported to address their problems.

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A novel methodology is proposed for the development of neural network models for complex engineering systems exhibiting nonlinearity. This method performs neural network modeling by first establishing some fundamental nonlinear functions from a priori engineering knowledge, which are then constructed and coded into appropriate chromosome representations. Given a suitable fitness function, using evolutionary approaches such as genetic algorithms, a population of chromosomes evolves for a certain number of generations to finally produce a neural network model best fitting the system data. The objective is to improve the transparency of the neural networks, i.e. to produce physically meaningful

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It is estimated that up to one million children may have been exposed to domestic violence in the UK, with significant consequences for their social and emotional development in childhood and later life. At a time when the central and devolved administrations in the UK have developed strategies to tackle domestic violence, this paper reports the findings from a study conducted on children in the child protection system with long-term and complex needs as a result of experiencing domestic violence. The research identifies the characteristics of the children and their families and tracks their careers through the child protection system. The findings indicate that professionals have an awareness of domestic violence, and that younger children with younger parents are most likely to experience prolonged periods in the child protection system. Domestic violence in this context typically co-exists in families experiencing other difficulties such as substance misuse and socio-economic deprivation. In conclusion, the paper argues that Government policy and professional practice should primarily be concerned with assessing the risk that men present, rather than the risk that children are at. By reframing professional interventions, men are more likely to be challenged to accept responsibility for their behaviour and the consequences for their families.

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A pollen-based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740?±?70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860?±?50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso- to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi-permanent air mass.

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In spite of significant public concern, professional efforts and financial expenditure, there has been a perceived lack of progress in reducing the incidence of child abuse, and in improving the outcomes for children in both the short and longer term. In this article the authors reflect on recent policy developments in the United Kingdom relating to children and families experiencing multiple adversities, and argue that the current conceptualisation of child abuse is flawed. In adopting a rational technical approach to the management of child abuse, there is a tendency to focus on shorter term outcomes for the child, such as immediate safety, that primarily reflect the outputs of the child protection system. However, by viewing child abuse as a wicked problem, that is complex and less amenable to being solved, then child welfare professionals can be supported to focus on achieving longer term outcomes for children that are more likely to meet their needs. The authors argue for an earlier identification of and intervention with children who are experiencing multiple adversity, such as those living with parents misusing substances and exposed to intimate partner violence.

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This paper outlines the design and development of a Java-based, unified and flexible natural language dialogue system that enables users to interact using natural language, e.g. speech. A number of software development issues are considered with the aim of designing an architecture that enables different discourse components to be readily and flexibly combined in a manner that permits information to be easily shared. Use of XML schemas assists this component interaction. The paper describes how a range of Java language features were employed to support the development of the architecture, providing an illustration of how a modern programming language makes tractable the development of a complex dialogue system.