Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

Holocene climate and environmental change in north-eastern Kamchatka (Russian Far East), inferred from a multi-proxy study of lake sediments

A sediment record from a small lake in the north-eastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula has been investigated in a multi-proxy study to gain knowledge of Holocene climatic and environmental change. Pollen, diatoms, chironomids and selected geochemical parameters were analysed and the sediment record was dated with radiocarbon. The study shows Holocene changes in the terrestrial vegetation as well as responses of the lake ecosystem to catchment maturity and multiple stressors, such as climate change and volcanic eruptions. Climate change is the major driving force resulting in the recorded environmental changes in the lake, although recurrent tephra deposition events also contributed. The sediment record has an age at the base of about 10,000 cal yrs BP, and during the first 400 years the climate was cold and the lake exhibited extensive ice-cover during winter and relatively low primary production. Soils in the catchment were poor with shrub alder and birches dominating the vegetation surrounding the lake. At about 9600–8900 cal yrs BP the climate was cold and moist, and strong seasonal wind stress resulted in reduced ice-cover and increased primary production. After ca. 8900 cal yrs BP the forest density increased around the lake, runoff decreased in a generally drier climate resulting in decreased primary production in the lake until ca. 7000 cal yrs BP. This generally dry climate was interrupted by a brief climatic perturbation, possibly attributed to the 8.2 ka event, indicating increasingly windy conditions with thick snow cover, reduced ice-cover and slightly elevated primary production in the lake. The diatom record shows maximum thermal stratification at ca. 6300–5800 cal yrs BP and indicates together with the geochemical proxies a dry and slightly warmer climate resulting in a high productive lake. The most remarkably change in the catchment vegetation occurred at ca. 4200 cal yrs BP in the form of a conspicuous increase in Siberian dwarf pine (Pinus pumila), indicating a shift to a cooler climate with a thicker and more long-lasting snow cover. This vegetational change was accompanied by marked shifts in the diatom and chironomid stratigraphies, which are also indicative of colder climate and more extensive ice-cover.

Abrupt Climate Changes: Climate and Biogeochemical consequences

Hosted in a wide depression within the Berici Hills (Venetian Plain), outside the maximum extent reached by LGM glaciers, Lake Fimon preserves an almost continuous archive of landscape and climate changes from the penultimate glacial maximum onwards. The stratigraphic succession deposited at the lake bottom has been investigated in three deep cores by means of pollen analysis, petrographic composition, magnetic susceptibility, LOI, and geochronology. Tephra layers have been identified and are currently under study.
Pollen data provide the first continuous vegetation record in northern Italy for the last 150 ky. Terrestrial vegetation varied from interglacial warm-temperate broad leaved to oceanic mixed forests, from boreal conifer forests to open forest-steppes of colder climate. Phases of major forest expansion and reduction have been correlated to isotopic events described in ice (NGRIP), stalagmite (Antro del Corchia) and marine records. Persistent afforestation recorded in northern Italy even during cold phases of the full pleniglacial is consistent with mesoscale paleoclimate simulations suggesting that a sharp rainfall gradient across the Alps enabled the survival of woody species in the southern alpine foreland.
Integrating litho- and biostratigraphical data, we identified sedimentation regìmes, accumulation rates, sediment sources and supply both for the Lake Fimon cores and the adjacent Venetian Plain, allowing a direct comparison with major glacial advances in the Alpine area, deglaciation pulses, and glacio-eustatic displacements of the northern Adriatic shoreline.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.