Deciding between accounts of the selection task: A reply to Oaksford (2002)

In this paper we report on our attempts to fit the optimal data selection (ODS) model (Oaksford Chater, 1994; Oaksford, Chater, & Larkin, 2000) to the selection task data reported in Feeney and Handley (2000) and Handley, Feeney, and Harper (2002). Although Oaksford (2002b) reports good fits to the data described in Feeney and Handley (2000), the model does not adequately capture the data described in Handley et al. (2002). Furthermore, across all six of the experiments modelled here, the ODS model does not predict participants' behaviour at the level of selection rates for individual cards. Finally, when people's probability estimates are used in the modelling exercise, the model adequately captures only I out of 18 conditions described in Handley et al. We discuss the implications of these results for models of the selection task and claim that they support deductive, rather than probabilistic, accounts of the task.

The removal of patients who live outside the practice boundary:a study of outside-area removals in Northern Ireland in 2001-2002

It has been suggested that there are significant overlaps between removals due to deregistration and removals arising because patients live outside the practice area. If this is true, it would mean that the current estimates of deregistration would need to be revised upwards. All outside-area removals for the calendar years 2001 and 2002 were reviewed and characterised by age, sex and Jarman score of the enumeration district of the patients' residence and distance from the practice. The average outside-area removal rate was just over one removal per practice per year. Removal rates were highest between the ages of 18 and 44 years; there were no significant differences between the sexes. Rates of removal increased exponentially with distance, although even at marked distances from the practice there were about 10 patients remaining on the list for each one removed. Residents in deprived areas were more likely to be removed, although because areas most distal to the practice tend to be affluent, overall there was a predominance of affluent patients among those who are removed. In Northern Ireland rates of outside-area removal are only slightly higher than those of deregistration. It is evident that GPs are exercising some discretion as to which of the outside-area patients they retain on their list. This has the potential to cause some misunderstanding and resentment among patients, as has been reported previously.

Alfred William Brian Simpson 1931-2011

This is a biography of AW Brian Simpson prepared for the British Academy's series Biographical Memoirs of the British Academy.

Enacting National Concerns: Accounts of the 2002 Golden Jubilee

Although the study of national identity in social psychology has examined the various ways in which the national group is ‘imagined’, little attention has been paid to the many collective national commemorations, celebrations and rituals of state assumed to unite the nation. This is surprising given the number of celebrations and commemorations which fill the calendars of modern nations
throughout the world and which are assumed by social scientists to play some part in the reproduction of the national community. Taking the British Royal Golden Jubilee celebrations of 2002, the present study examines how understandings of Anglo-British national identity are manifest in conversational
interviews during and after these events. In line with previous examinations of Anglo-Britishness, our respondents typically resisted imagining the national community as a homogenous whole and distanced themselves from depictions of the Jubilee as a nationalistic event. Support for the Jubilee was contingent upon the event being apolitical and inclusive.We suggest that such collective
national events could potentially facilitate ways of imagining the national community in terms of diversity and inclusivity rather than homogeneity and exclusivity.

Modelling the Performance of Irish Credit Unions, 2002 to 2010

This study undertakes a modeling based performance assessment of all Irish credit unions between 2002 and 2010, a particularly turbulent period in their history. The analysis explicitly addresses the current challenges faced by credit unions in that the modeling approach used rewards credit unions for reducing undesirable outputs (impaired loans and investments) as well as for increasing desirable outputs (loans, earning assets and members’ funds) and decreasing inputs (labour expenditure, capital expenditure and fund expenses). The main findings are: credit unions are subject to increasing returns to scale; technical regression occurred in the years after 2007; there is significant scope for an improvement in efficiency through expansion of desirable outputs and contraction of undesirable outputs and inputs; and that larger credit unions, that are better capitalised and pay a higher dividend to members are more efficient than their smaller, less capitalised, and lower dividend paying counterparts.

Predictions of survival up to 10 years after diagnosis for European women with breast cancer in 2000-2002

Few studies have addressed longer-term survival for breast cancer in European women. We have made predictions of 10-year survival for European women diagnosed with breast cancer in 2000-2002. Data for 114,312 adult women (15-99 years) diagnosed with a first primary malignant cancer of the breast during 2000-2002 were collected in the EUROCARE-4 study from 24 population-based cancer registries in 14 European countries. We estimated relative survival at 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis for women who were alive at some point during 2000-2002, using the period approach. We also estimated 10-year survival conditional on survival to 1 and 5 years after diagnosis. Ten-year survival exceeded 70% in most regions, but was only 54% in Eastern Europe, with the highest value in Northern Europe (about 75%). Ten-year survival conditional on survival for 1 year was 2-6% higher than 10-year survival in all European regions, and geographic differences were smaller. Ten-year survival for women who survived at least 5 years was 88% overall, with the lowest figure in Eastern Europe (79%) and the highest in the UK (91%). Women aged 50-69 years had higher overall survival than older and younger women (79%). Six cancer registries had adequate information on stage at diagnosis; in these jurisdictions, 10-year survival was 89% for local, 62% for regional and 10% for metastatic disease. Data on stage are not collected routinely or consistently, yet these data are essential for meaningful comparison of population-based survival, which provides vital information for improving breast cancer control. What's new? Policy-makers and health-care planners need accurate data on long-term survival to improve cancer control. This Europe-wide study of 10-year survival identified low survival in Eastern Europe for women with breast cancer in 2000-2002, and wide variation by age at diagnosis. Data on stage at diagnosis are crucial for meaningful comparison of population-based survival, and fundamental for improving breast cancer control, but our analyses confirmed that stage data are not collected routinely or consistently Copyright © 2012 UICC.