46 resultados para Bayesian Statistics, Expert Elicitation, Coral Reefs, Species Richness


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Recent studies predict elevated and accelerating rates of species extinctions over the 21st century, due to climate change and habitat loss. Considering that such primary species loss may initiate cascades of secondary extinctions and push systems towards critical tipping points, we urgently need to increase our understanding of if certain sequences of species extinctions can be expected to be more devastating than others Most theoretical studies addressing this question have used a topological (non-dynamical) approach to analyse the probability that food webs will collapse, below a fixed threshold value in species richness, when subjected to different sequences of species loss. Typically, these studies have neither considered the possibility of dynamical responses of species, nor that conclusions may depend on the value of the collapse threshold. Here we analyse how sensitive conclusions on the importance of different species are to the threshold value of food web collapse. Using dynamical simulations, where we expose model food webs to a range of extinction sequences, we evaluate the reliability of the most frequently used index, R<inf>50</inf>, as a measure of food web robustness. In general, we find that R<inf>50</inf> is a reliable measure and that identification of destructive deletion sequences is fairly robust, within a moderate range of collapse thresholds. At the same time, however, focusing on R<inf>50</inf> only hides a lot of interesting information on the disassembly process and can, in some cases, lead to incorrect conclusions on the relative importance of species in food webs.

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Potential explanatory variables often co-vary in studies of species richness. Where topography varies within a survey it is difficult to separate area and habitat-diversity effects. Topographically complex surfaces may contain more species due to increased habitat diversity or as a result of increased area per se. Fractal geometry can be used to adjust species richness estimates to control for increases in area on complex surfaces. Application of fractal techniques to a survey of rocky shores demonstrated an unambiguous area-independent effect of topography on species richness in the Isle of Man. In contrast, variation in species richness in south-west England reflected surface availability alone. Multivariate tests and variation in limpet abundances also demonstrated regional variation in the area-independent effects of topography. Community composition did not vary with increasing surface complexity in south-west England. These results suggest large-scale gradients in the effects of heterogeneity on community processes or demography.

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1. As many species of marine benthic invertebrates have a limited capacity for movement as adults, dispersal mode is often considered as a determinant of geographical ranges, genetic structure and evolutionary history. Species that reproduce without a larval stage can only disperse by floating or rafting. It is proposed that the colonization processes associated with such direct developing species result in spatial distributions that show relatively greater fine scale patchiness than the distributions of species with a larval dispersal stage. This hypothesis was tested by collecting molluscs at different spatial scales in the Isle of Man. 2. Spatial distribution patterns supported the predictions based on dispersal mode. Estimated variance components for species with larval dispersal suggested that the majority of the spatial variation was associated with variation between shores. In comparison, there was relatively more variability within shores for abundance counts of species with direct development. 3. Multivariate analyses reflected the univariate results. An assemblage of direct developers provided a better discrimination between sites (100 m separation) but the group of species with larval dispersal gave a clearer separation of shores (separated by several km). 4. The fine scale spatial structure of direct developing species was reflected in higher average species diversity within quadrats. Species richness also reflected dispersal mode, with a higher fraction of the regional species pool present for direct developers in comparison to species with larval dispersal. This may reflect the improved local persistence of taxa that avoid the larval dispersal stage.

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The richness and turnover of coastal larval pools set upper limits for biodiversity in coastal systems. For particular local systems, such as embayments, the characteristics of the local larval pool are determined by the relative contributions of locally produced and external larvae. The balance between these sources partially reflects the extent of tidal exchange and is hence related to system size and flushing time. Larvae of benthic marine invertebrates were sampled from 8 bays along the Irish coast to investigate the effect of coastline configuration on the characteristics of the larval pool. Flushing time explained 34.5% of the variability in species richness from a series of daily samples. Many of the potentially relevant environmental variables are correlated, limiting the potential for individual variables to be examined in isolation. We therefore used a principal components analysis to describe the major patterns in environmental variability across bays. The second principal component separated bays along a gradient of increasing depth, salinity, tidal range and flushing time. Scores along this component were generally better predictors of the larval pool than single variables, explaining as much as 61.2% of the variation in species richness, diversity and similarity between dates. Deeper bays, with more saline water and longer flushing times, tended to have richer and more diverse larval pools, with a greater consistency in species composition between sample dates. No relationship was found between environmental variables and larval abundance. Our results suggest that flushing time, particularly when in combination with topographic variables, chlorophyll, tidal range and salinity, may be a useful predictor for the richness and turnover of local larval pools.

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It has traditionally been considered that areas with high natural species richness are likely to be more resistant to non-indigenous species than those with lower numbers of species. However, this theory has been the subject of a debate over the last decade, since some studies have shown the opposite trend. In the present study, a macroalgal survey was carried out at 24 localities in Northern Ireland and southern England, using a quadrat approach in the lower littoral. The two opposing hypotheses were tested (negative versus positive relationship between native and non-indigenous species richness) in this marine environment. The effect of the presence of 'impacts', potential sources of disturbance and species introduction (e.g. marina, harbour or aquaculture), was also tested. A positive relationship was found between the number of non-indigenous species and the native species richness at the three different scales tested (quadrats, sites and localities). At no scale did a richer native assemblage appear to restrict the establishment of introduced species. The analyses revealed greater species richness and different community composition, as well as more non-indigenous species, in southern England relative to Northern Ireland. The presence of the considered impacts had an effect on the community composition and species richness in southern England but not in Northern Ireland. Such impacts had no effect on the non-indigenous species richness in either area.

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Data from a hierarchical study of four Zostera marina beds in Wales were used to identify the spatial scales of variation in epiphyte assemblages. There were significant within and among bed differences in assemblage structure. The differences in assemblage structure with spatial scale generally persisted when species identifications were aggregated into functional groups. There was also significant within and among bed variability in Zostera density and average length. Local variations in Zostera canopy variables at the quadrat scale (total leaf length, average leaf length and leaf density per quadrat) were not related to epiphyte species richness nor to the structure of the assemblage. In contrast, individual leaf length was significantly related to species richness in two of the beds and the structure of epiphyte assemblages was always related to individual leaf lengths. The absence of links between quadrat scale measurements of canopy variables and assemblage structure may reflect the high turnover of individual Zostera leaves. Experimental work is required to discriminate further between the potential causes of epiphyte assemblage variation within and between beds. No bed represented a refuge where a rare species was abundant. If a species was uncommon at the bed scale, it was also uncommon in beds where it occurred. The heterogeneous assemblages found in this study suggest that a precautionary approach to conservation is advisable.

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The efficacy of ‘sod removal’ as a fenland restoration technique was tested using an experimental approach at Montiaghs Moss Nature Reserve, Northern Ireland, from 2006 to 2008. The site suffered from rank growth of purple moor-grass Molinia caerulea which was out-competing herbaceous species. Soil was removed up to a depth of 15 cm completely denuding vegetation in the experimental plot exposing bare peat. By July 2007, 15.2% of sod-removal areas were revegetated; by October 2008 cover had risen to 64.6%. Of this cover, purple moor-grass accounted for only 9-11% compared to 78- 79% on control plots. Cover of other rank-forming grass species was also significantly reduced. Sod removal significantly increased the cover of species characteristic of fenlands including sedges Carex spp., rushes Juncus spp., marsh pennywort Hydrocotyle vulgaris and lesser spearwort Ranunculus flammula. It seems likely that sod removal, which lowered the surface of the peat, restored minerotrophic conditions and exposed the historical seed bank stimulating regeneration of some fenland specialists and pioneer species; this resulted in significantly higher species richness on sod removal plots than control plots two years after treatment. There was no demonstrable effect of sod removal on abundance of devil’s-bit scabious Succisa pratensis, the larval food plant of the Annex II listed marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia. We recommend that consideration should be given to artificially seeding devil’s-bit scabious soon after sod removal treatment to promote early recolonisation and to increase plant abundance on the site.

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The rate of species loss is increasing at a global scale, and human-induced extinctions are biased toward predator species. We examined the effects of predator extinctions on a foundation species, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica). We performed a factorial experiment manipulating the presence and abundance of three of the most common predatory crabs, the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), stone crab (Menippe mercenaria), and mud crab (Panopeus herbstii) in estuaries in the eastern United States. We tested the effects of species richness and identity of predators on juvenile oyster survival, oyster recruitment, and organic matter content of sediment. We also manipulated the density of each of the predators and controlled for the loss of biomass of species by maintaining a constant mass of predators in one set of treatments and simultaneously using an additive design. This design allowed us to test the density dependence of our results and test for functional compensation by other species. The identity of predator species, but not richness, affected oyster populations. The loss of blue crabs, alone or in combination with either of the other species, affected the survival rate of juvenile oysters. Blue crabs and stone crabs both affected oyster recruitment and sediment organic matter negatively. Mud crabs at higher than ambient densities, however, could fulfill some of the functions of blue and stone crabs, suggesting a level of ecological redundancy. Importantly, the strong effects of blue crabs in all processes measured no longer occurred when individuals were present at higher-than-ambient densities. Their role as dominant predator is, therefore, dependent on their density within the system and the density of other species within their guild (e.g., mud crabs). Our findings support the hypothesis that the effects of species loss at higher trophic levels are determined by predator identity and are subject to complex intraguild interactions that are largely density dependent. Understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem functioning or addressing practical concerns, such as loss of predators owing to overharvesting, remains complicated because accurate predictions require detailed knowledge of the system and should be drawn from sound experimental evidence, not based on observations or generalized models.

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The role of habitat structure in controlling the composition of assemblages has often been studied, but is rarely manipulated so that it is distinguishable from other factors. Differences in habitat structure as determined by differences in mussel size structure may affect the diversity of assemblages associated with mussel beds. Previous studies examining the effect of the size of individual mussels in a patch on the diversity of associated macro-faunal assemblages confounded the age of the patch with the size of the mussels. We manipulated the age of mussel patches and the size of the mussels within them to test experimentally whether the size of mussels influenced the structure of associated assemblages. At one of the two locations considered, the structure of macro-faunal assemblages in patches of larger mussels differed significantly from those in patches of the same age composed of smaller mussels. At this location, the size of mussels did not affect species richness but the abundance and proportion of organisms present differed depending on the size of the mussels. Here patches of larger mussels contained greater numbers of Nematodes and Oligochaetes and a lower abundance of taxa, such as faera forsmani and Lepidonotus clava. We also found that invertebrate assemblages in general differed between the two locations. The effect of the size structure of mussels, however, varied spatially demonstrating that the effect of habitat structure on the diversity of associated assemblages is context dependent.

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Beds of nonattached coralline algae (maerl or rhodoliths) are widespread and considered relatively species rich. This habitat is generally found in areas where there is chronic physical disturbance such that maerl thalli are frequently moved. Little is known, however, about how natural disturbance regimes affect the species associated with maerl. This study compared the richness, animal abundance, and algal biomass of maerl-associated species over a two-year period in a wave-disturbed bed and a sheltered maerl bed. Changes in associated species over time were assessed for departures from a neutral model in which the dissimilarity between samples reflects random sampling from a common species pool. Algal biomass and species richness at the wave-exposed site and on stabilized maerl at the sheltered site were reduced at times of higher wind speeds. The changes in species richness were not distinguishable from a neutral model, implying that algal species were added at random to the assemblage as the level of disturbance lessened. Results for animal species were more mixed. Although mobile species were less abundant during windy periods at the exposed site, both neutral and non-neutral patterns were evident in the assemblages. Artificial stabilization of maerl had inconsistent effects on the richness of animals but always resulted in more attached algal species. While the results show that the response of a community to disturbance can be neutral, the domain of neutral changes in communities may be relatively small. Alongside non-neutral responses to natural disturbance, artificial stabilization always resulted in an assemblage that was more distinct than would be expected under random sampling from a common pool. Community responses to stabilization treatments did not consistently follow the predictions of the dynamic equilibrium model, the intermediate disturbance model, or a facilitation model. These inconsistencies may reflect site-specific variation in both the disturbance regime and the adjacent habitats that provide source populations for many of the species found associated with maerl.

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A central question in community ecology is how the number of trophic links relates to community species richness. For simple dynamical food-web models, link density (the ratio of links to species) is bounded from above as the number of species increases; but empirical data suggest that it increases without bounds. We found a new empirical upper bound on link density in large marine communities with emphasis on fish and squid, using novel methods that avoid known sources of bias in traditional approaches. Bounds are expressed in terms of the diet-partitioning function (DPF): the average number of resources contributing more than a fraction f to a consumer's diet, as a function of f. All observed DPF follow a functional form closely related to a power law, with power-law exponents indepen- dent of species richness at the measurement accuracy. Results imply universal upper bounds on link density across the oceans. However, the inherently scale-free nature of power-law diet partitioning suggests that the DPF itself is a better defined characterization of network structure than link density.

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The composition and richness of the microfauna on lime trees was surveyed in relation to the distribution and cover of lichens in Belfast. Parameters used to help interpret the results included distance from the city centre and available data on air quality. The percentage epiphyte cover on the trunks of lime trees was significantly correlated with distance from the city centre whereas that on tree bases as not. In contrast, the number of microfaunal species revealed strong positive correlations with distance for both the bases and the trunks of trees. Most of this increase in microfaunal species richness towards rural areas was due to protistans which are thus proposed as useful bioindicators of air pollution. The total species richness of fauna showed slight negative correlation with smoke but not SO2 levels.

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Effects of agricultural intensification (AI) on biodiversity are often assessed on the plot scale, although processes determining diversity also operate on larger spatial scales. Here, we analyzed the diversity of vascular plants, carabid beetles, and birds in agricultural landscapes in cereal crop fields at the field (n = 1350), farm (n = 270), and European-region (n = 9) scale. We partitioned diversity into its additive components alpha, beta, and gamma, and assessed the relative contribution of beta diversity to total species richness at each spatial scale. AI was determined using pesticide and fertilizer inputs, as well as tillage operations and categorized into low, medium, and high levels. As AI was not significantly related to landscape complexity, we could disentangle potential AI effects on local vs. landscape community homogenization. AI negatively affected the species richness of plants and birds, but not carabid beetles, at all spatial scales. Hence, local AI was closely correlated to beta diversity on larger scales up to the farm and region level, and thereby was an indicator of farm-and region-wide biodiversity losses. At the scale of farms (12.83-20.52%) and regions (68.34-80.18%), beta diversity accounted for the major part of the total species richness for all three taxa, indicating great dissimilarity in environmental conditions on larger spatial scales. For plants, relative importance of alpha diversity decreased with AI, while relative importance of beta diversity on the farm scale increased with AI for carabids and birds. Hence, and in contrast to our expectations, AI does not necessarily homogenize local communities, presumably due to the heterogeneity of farming practices. In conclusion, a more detailed understanding of AI effects on diversity patterns of various taxa and at multiple spatial scales would contribute to more efficient agri-environmental schemes in agroecosystems.

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How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.