Evolutionary agglomeration theory: increasing returns, diminishing returns, and the industry life cycle

According to Marshall’s agglomeration theory, Krugman’s New Economic Geography models, and Porter’s cluster policies, firms should receive increasing returns from a trinity of agglomeration economies: a local pool of skilled labour, local supplier linkages, and local knowledge spillovers. Recent evolutionary theories suggest that whether agglomeration economies generate increasing returns or diminishing returns depends on time, and especially the evolution of the industry life cycle. At the start of the twenty-first century, we re-examine Marshall’s trinity of agglomeration economies in the city-region where he discovered them. The econometric results from our multivariate regression models are the polar opposite of Marshall’s. During the later stages of the industry life cycle, Marshall’s agglomeration economies decrease the economic performance of firms and create widespread diminishing returns for the economic development of the city-region, which has evolved to become one of the poorest city-regions in Europe.

Information Disclosure, Market Discipline and the Management of Bank Capital: Evidence from the Chinese Financial Sector

Is there evidence that market forces effectively discipline risk management behaviour within Chinese financial institutions? This study analyses information from a comprehensive sample of Chinese banks over the 1998-2008 period. Market discipline is captured through the impact of four sets of factors namely, market concentration, interbank deposits, information disclosure, and ownership structure. We find some evidence of a market disciplining effect in that: (i) higher (lower) levels of market concentration lead banks to operate with a lower (higher) capital buffer; (ii) joint-equity banks that disclose more information to the public maintain larger capital ratios; (iii) full state ownership reduces the sensitivity of changes in a bank's capital buffer to its level of risk;(iv) banks that release more transparent financial information hold more capital against their non-performing loans. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Increasing Returns and Competitive Equilibrium--The Content and Development of Marshall's Theory

This paper reviews Alfred Marshall's attempts to reconcile increasing returns and competition from the early economic writings to the later editions of his Principles. It is shown that while Marshall's final solution to the problem involved naming external economies the cause of increasing returns in a regime of competition , both the life cycle of the firm and internal economies remained necessary to his argument. Their function was to give some operation al content to the elusive concept of external economies.

Commonality in Returns, Order Flows, and Liquidity in the Greek Stock Market

Using a unique high-frequency data-set on a comprehensive sample of Greek blue-chip stocks, spanning from September 2003 through March 2006, this note assesses the extent and role of commonality in returns, order flows (OFs), and liquidity. It also formally models aggregate equity returns in terms of aggregate equity OF, in an effort to clarify OF's importance in explaining returns for the Athens Exchange market. Almost a quarter of the daily returns in the FTSE/ATHEX20 index is explained by aggregate own OF. In a second step, using principal components and canonical correlation analyses, we document substantial common movements in returns, OFs, and liquidity, both on a market-wide basis and on an individual security basis. These results emphasize that asset pricing and liquidity cannot be analyzed in isolation from each other.

Palmprint Recognition Based on Subspace Analysis of Gabor Filter Bank

This paper introduces a new technique for palmprint recognition based on Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis (FLDA) and Gabor filter bank. This method involves convolving a palmprint image with a bank of Gabor filters at different scales and rotations for robust palmprint features extraction. Once these features are extracted, FLDA is applied for dimensionality reduction and class separability. Since the palmprint features are derived from the principal lines, wrinkles and texture along the palm area. One should carefully consider this fact when selecting the appropriate palm region for the feature extraction process in order to enhance recognition accuracy. To address this problem, an improved region of interest (ROI) extraction algorithm is introduced. This algorithm allows for an efficient extraction of the whole palm area by ignoring all the undesirable parts, such as the fingers and background. Experiments have shown that the proposed method yields attractive performances as evidenced by an Equal Error Rate (EER) of 0.03%.

Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

Rule Britannia!: British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870

This article presents a new series of monthly equity returns for the British stock market for the period 1825-1870. In addition to calculating capital appreciation and dividend yields, the article also estimates the effect of survivorship bias on returns. Three notable findings emerge from this study. First, stock market returns in the 1825-1870 period are broadly similar for Britain and the United States, although the British market is less risky. Second, real returns in the 1825-1870 period are higher than in subsequent epochs of British history. Third, unlike the modern era, dividends are the most important component of returns.

'Diminishing Returns' (diary)

Diary

Maximising trace soil evidence: An improved recovery method developed during investigation of a $26 million bank robbery

Obtaining as much particulate material as possible from questioned items is desirable in forensic science as this allows a range of analyses to be undertaken and the retention of material for others to check. A method of maximising particulate recovery is described using a kidnap case, where minimal staining on clothing (socks) remained as possible indications of where the victim had been held captive. Police intelligence led to a hostage scene that was sampled. Brushing of the socks recovered about 50 sand grains with some silt: ultrasonic agitation and centrifuging recovered over 300 grains of sand, silt and clay. These were visually compared to scene and control samples, allowing exclusion of 52 samples and the retention of one comparison sample as well as other possibles, saving time and money, but maximising sample quantity and quality. © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.