Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.

Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

New radiocarbon calibration curves, IntCal04 and Marine04, have been constructed and internationally ratified to replace the terrestrial and marine components of IntCal98. The new calibration data sets extend an additional 2000 yr, from 0–26 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950), and provide much higher resolution, greater precision, and more detailed structure than IntCal98. For the Marine04 curve, dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples, converted with a box diffusion model to marine mixed-layer ages, cover the period from 0–10.5 cal kyr BP. Beyond 10.5 cal kyr BP, high-resolution marine data become available from foraminifera in varved sediments and U/Th-dated corals. The marine records are corrected with site-specific 14C reservoir age information to provide a single global marine mixed-layer calibration from 10.5–26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the 14C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed here. The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are presented in detail in a companion paper by Reimer et al. (this issue).

High-precision radiocarbon measurements of contemporaneous tree-ring wood from the British Isles and New Zealand: AD 1850-950.

The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand and The Queen's University of Belfast, Northern Ireland radiocarbon dating laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus petraea) from Great Britain and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) and silver pine (Lagarostrobos colensoi) from New Zealand. The results show an average hemispheric offset over the 900 yr of measurement of 40±13 yr. This value is not constant but varies with a periodicity of about 130 yr. The Northern Hemisphere measurements confirm the validity of the Pearson et al. (1986) calibration dataset.

Calibration of the Radiocarbon Time Scale for the Southern Hemisphere: AD 1850-950

We have conducted a series of radiocarbon measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated wood from both hemispheres, spanning 1000 years (McCormac et al. 1998; Hogg et al. this issue). Using the data presented in Hogg et al., we show that during the period AD 950-1850 the 14C offset between the hemispheres is not constant, but varies periodically (~130 yr periodicity) with amplitudes varying between 1 and 10‰ (i.e. 8-80 yr), with a consequent effect on the 14C calibration of material from the Southern Hemisphere. A large increase in the offset occurs between AD 1245 and 1355. In this paper, we present a Southern Hemisphere high-precision calibration data set (SHCal02) that comprises measurements from New Zealand, Chile, and South Africa. This data, and a new value of 41 ± 14 yr for correction of the IntCal98 data for the period outside the range given here, is proposed for use in calibrating Southern Hemisphere 14C dates.

Radiocarbon calibration in the Anglo-Saxon period: AD 495-725

Radiocarbon dating has been rarely used for chronological problems relating to the Anglo-Saxon period. The "flatness" of the calibration curve and the resultant wide range in calendrical dates provide little advantage over traditional archaeological dating in this period. Recent advances in Bayesian methodology have, however, created the possibility of refining and checking the established chronologies, based on typology of artifacts, against 14C dates. The calibration process, within such a confined age range, however, relies heavily on the structural accuracy of the calibration curve. We have therefore re-measured, at decadal intervals, a section of the Irish oak chronology for the period AD 495–725. These measurements have been included in IntCal04.

Problems with identifying the '8200-year cold event' in terrestrial records of the Atlantic seaboard: a case study from Dooagh, Achill Island, Ireland.

The Northern Hemisphere cooling event 8200 years ago is believed to represent the last known major freshwater pulse into the North Atlantic as a result of the final collapse of the North American Laurentide ice sheet. This pulse of water is generally believed to have occurred independently of orbital variations and provides an analogue for predicted increases in high-latitude precipitation and ice melt as a result of anthropogenically driven future climate change. The precise timing, duration and magnitude of this event, however, are uncertain, with suggestions that the 100-yr meltwater cooling formed part of a longer-term cold period in the early Holocene. Here we undertook a multiproxy, high-resolution investigation of a peat sequence at Dooagh, Achill Island, on the west coast of Ireland, to determine whether the 8200-year cold event impacted upon the terrestrial vegetation immediately downwind of the proposed changes in the North Atlantic. We find clear evidence for an oscillation in the early Holocene using various measures of pollen, indicating a disruption in the vegetation leading to a grassland-dominated landscape, most probably driven by changes in precipitation rather than temperature. Radiocarbon dating was extremely problematic, however, with bulk peat samples systematically too young for the North Atlantic event, suggesting significant contamination from downward root penetration. The sustained disruption to vegetation over hundreds of years at Dooagh indicates the landscape was impacted by a long-term cooling event in the early Holocene, and not the single century length 8200-year meltwater event proposed in many other records in the North Atlantic region.