Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models. The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is 'poolable'. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Covariance Averaging for Improved Estimation and Portfolio Allocation

We propose a new method for estimating the covariance matrix of a multivariate time series of nancial returns. The method is based on estimating sample covariances from overlapping windows of observations which are then appropriately weighted to obtain the nal covariance estimate. We extend the idea of (model) covariance averaging o ered in the covariance shrinkage approach by means of greater ease of use, exibility and robustness in averaging information over different data segments. The suggested approach does not su er from the curse of dimensionality and can be used without problems of either approximation or any demand for numerical optimization.

Low-power DWT-based quasi-averaging algorithm and architecture for epileptic seizure detection

In this paper, we have developed a low-complexity algorithm for epileptic seizure detection with a high degree of accuracy. The algorithm has been designed to be feasibly implementable as battery-powered low-power implantable epileptic seizure detection system or epilepsy prosthesis. This is achieved by utilizing design optimization techniques at different levels of abstraction. Particularly, user-specific critical parameters are identified at the algorithmic level and are explicitly used along with multiplier-less implementations at the architecture level. The system has been tested on neural data obtained from in-vivo animal recordings and has been implemented in 90nm bulk-Si technology. The results show up to 90 % savings in power as compared to prevalent wavelet based seizure detection technique while achieving 97% average detection rate. Copyright 2010 ACM.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Role of IP(3) in modulation of spontaneous activity in pacemaker cells of rabbit urethra.

Isolated interstitial ("pacemaker") cells from rabbit urethra were examined using the perforated-patch technique. Under voltage clamp at -60 mV, these cells fired large spontaneous transient inward currents (STICs), averaging -860 pA and >1 s in duration, which could account for urethral pacemaker activity. Spontaneous transient outward currents (STOCs) were also observed and fell into two categories, "fast" (1 s in duration). The latter were coupled to STICs, suggesting that they shared the same mechanism, while the former occurred independently at faster rates. All of these currents were abolished by cyclopiazonic acid, caffeine, or ryanodine, suggesting that they were activated by Ca(2+) release. When D-myo-inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP(3))-sensitive stores were blocked with 2-aminoethoxydiphenyl borate, the STICs and slow STOCs were abolished, but the fast STOCs remained. In contrast, the fast STOCs were more nifedipine sensitive than the STICs or the slow STOCs. These results suggest that while fast STOCs are mediated by a mechanism similar to STOCs in smooth muscle, STICs and slow STOCs are driven by IP(3). These results support the hypothesis that pacemaker activity in the urethra is driven by the IP(3)-sensitive store. PMID: 11287348 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

On subspace lattices II. Continuity of Lat

We study the continuity of the map Lat sending an ultraweakly closed operator algebra to its invariant subspace lattice. We provide an example showing that Lat is in general discontinuous and give sufficient conditions for the restricted continuity of this map. As consequences we obtain that Lat is continuous on the classes of von Neumann and Arveson algebras and give a general approximative criterion for reflexivity, which extends Arvesonâ??s theorem on the reflexivity of commutative subspace lattices.

Effective collision strengths for electron impact excitation of C1III

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the phosphorus-like ion Cl III are presented for all fine- structure transitions among the levels arising from the lowest 23 LS states. The collisional cross sections are computed in the multichannel close-coupling R-matrix approximation, where sophisticated configuration-interaction wave functions are used to represent the target states. The 23 LS states are formed from the basis configurations 3s(2)3p(3). 3s3p(4). 3s(2)3p(2)3d, and 3s(2)3p(2)4s, and correspond to 49 fine- structure levels, leading to a total possible 1176 fine- structure transitions. The effective collision strengths. obtained by averaging the electron collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities. are tabulated in this paper for all 1176 transitions and for electron temperatures in the ranges T(K) = 7500-25.000 and log T(K) = 4.4-5.3. The former range encompasses the temperatures of particular importance for application to gaseous nebulae. while the latter range is more applicable to the study of solar and laboratory-type plasmas. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Effective collision strengths for electron impact excitation of Si VIII

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the nitrogen-like ion Si VIII are presented over the wide range of electron temperatures log T(K) = 4.0-6.5. All 231 fine- structure transitions among the 22 fine-structure levels arising from the lowest 11 LS target states (2s(2)2p(3), 2s2p(4), 2p(5), and 2s(2)2p(2)3s) are considered in the tabulation. The collision strengths are evaluated in a multi- channel R-matrix approach, and the corresponding effective collision strengths are obtained by averaging these over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities. Comparisons are made with recent distorted-wave results at high incident electron energies. Differences of up to 20% are found, particularly for some allowed transitions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative energetics and structural properties of zirconia using a self-consistent tight-binding model

We describe an empirical, self-consistent, orthogonal tight-binding model for zirconia, which allows for the polarizability of the anions at dipole and quadrupole levels and for crystal field splitting of the cation d orbitals, This is achieved by mixing the orbitals of different symmetry on a site with coupling coefficients driven by the Coulomb potentials up to octapole level. The additional forces on atoms due to the self-consistency and polarizabilities are exactly obtained by straightforward electrostatics, by analogy with the Hellmann-Feynman theorem as applied in first-principles calculations. The model correctly orders the zero temperature energies of all zirconia polymorphs. The Zr-O matrix elements of the Hamiltonian, which measure covalency, make a greater contribution than the polarizability to the energy differences between phases. Results for elastic constants of the cubic and tetragonal phases and phonon frequencies of the cubic phase are also presented and compared with some experimental data and first-principles calculations. We suggest that the model will be useful for studying finite temperature effects by means of molecular dynamics.

New Zealand chironomids as proxies for human-induced and natural environmental change: Transfer functionsfor temperature and lake production (chlorophyll a)

The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 lg l)1) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination (r2 jack) of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack) of 1.31C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an r2 jack of 0.49 and an RMSEPjack of 0.46 Log10lg l)1. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.

An analogue of the Magnus problem for associative algebras

We prove an analogue of Magnus theorem for associative algebras without unity over arbitrary fields. Namely, if an algebra is given by $n+k$ generators and $k$ relations and has an $n$-element system of generators, then this algebra is a free algebra of rank $n$.