Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models. The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is 'poolable'. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of Turbine Inlet Temperature on Rotor Blade Tip Leakage Flow and Heat Transfer

One of the most critical gas turbine engine components, the rotor blade tip and casing, is exposed to high thermal load. It becomes a significant design challenge to protect the turbine materials from this severe situation. The purpose of this paper is to study numerically the effect of turbine inlet temperature on the tip leakage flow structure and heat transfer. In this paper, the effect of turbine inlet temperature on the tip leakage flow structure and heat transfer has been studied numerically. Uniform low (LTIT: 444 K) and high (HTIT: 800 K) turbine inlet temperature, as well as non-uniform inlet temperature have been considered. The results showed the higher turbine inlet temperature yields the higher velocity and temperature variations in the leakage flow aerodynamics and heat transfer. For a given turbine geometry and on-design operating conditions, the turbine power output can be increased by 1.33 times, when the turbine inlet temperature increases 1.80 times. Whereas the averaged heat fluxes on the casing and the blade tip become 2.71 and 2.82 times larger, respectively. Therefore, about 2.8 times larger cooling capacity is required to keep the same turbine material temperature. Furthermore, the maximum heat flux on the blade tip of high turbine inlet temperature case reaches up to 3.348 times larger than that of LTIT case. The effect of the interaction of stator and rotor on heat transfer features is also explored using unsteady simulations. The non-uniform turbine inlet temperature enhances the heat flux fluctuation on the blade tip and casing.

Tip leakage flow and heat transfer on turbine blade tip and casing, Part 1: Effect of tip clearance height and rotation speed

Steady simulations were performed to investigate tip leakage flow and heat transfer characteristics on the rotor blade tip and casing in a single-stage gas turbine engine. A typical high-pressure gas turbine stage was modeled with a pressure ratio of 3.2. The predicted isentropic Mach number and adiabatic wall temperature on the casing showed good agreement with available experimental data under similar operating condition. The present numerical study focuses extensively on the effects of tip clearance heights and rotor rotational speeds on the blade tip and casing heat transfer characteristics. It was observed that the tip leakage flow structure is highly dependent on the height of the tip gap and the speed of the rotor. In all cases, the tip leakage flow was seen to separate and recirculate just around the corner of the pressure side of the blade tip. This region of re-circulating flow enlarges with increasing clearance heights. The separated leakage flow reattaches afterwards on the tip surface. Leakage flow reattachment was shown to enhance surface heat transfer at the tip. The interaction between tip leakage flow and secondary flows that is induced by the relative casing motion is found to significantly influence the blade tip and casing heat transfer distribution. A region of critical heat transfer exists on the casing near the blade tip leading edge and along the pressure-side edge for all the clearance heights that were investigated. At high rotation speed, the region of critical heat transfer tends to move towards the trailing edge due to the change in inflow angle.

Low-energy cranberry juice decreases lipid oxidation and increases plasma antioxidant capacity in women with metabolic syndrome

Cranberries, high in polyphenols, have been associated with several cardiovascular health benefits, although limited clinical trials have been reported to validate these findings. We tested the hypothesis that commercially available low-energy cranberry juice (Ocean Spray Cranberries, Inc, Lakeville-Middleboro, Mass) will decrease surrogate risk factors of cardiovascular disease, such as lipid oxidation, inflammation, and dyslipidemia, in subjects with metabolic syndrome. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, participants identified with metabolic syndrome (n = 15-16/group) were assigned to 1 of 2 groups: cranberry juice (480 mL/day) or placebo (480 mL/day) for 8 weeks. Anthropometrics, blood pressure measurements, dietary analyses, and fasting blood draws were conducted at screen and 8 weeks of the study. Cranberry juice significantly increased plasma antioxidant capacity (1.5 ± 0.6 to 2.2 ± 0.4 µmol/L [means ± SD], P <.05) and decreased oxidized low-density lipoprotein and malondialdehyde (120.4 ± 31.0 to 80.4 ± 34.6 U/L and 3.4 ± 1.1 to 1.7 ± 0.7 µmol/L, respectively [means ± SD], P <.05) at 8 weeks vs placebo. However, cranberry juice consumption caused no significant improvements in blood pressure, glucose and lipid profiles, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6. No changes in these parameters were noted in the placebo group. In conclusion, low-energy cranberry juice (2 cups/day) significantly reduces lipid oxidation and increases plasma antioxidant capacity in women with metabolic syndrome.

Using Mesh-Geometry Relationships to Transfer Analysis Models between CAE Tools

Integrating analysis and design models is a complex task due to differences between the models and the architectures of the toolsets used to create them. This complexity is increased with the use of many different tools for specific tasks during an analysis process. In this work various design and analysis models are linked throughout the design lifecycle, allowing them to be moved between packages in a way not currently available. Three technologies named Cellular Modeling, Virtual Topology and Equivalencing are combined to demonstrate how different finite element meshes generated on abstract analysis geometries can be linked to their original geometry. Establishing the equivalence relationships between models enables analysts to utilize multiple packages for specialist tasks without worrying about compatibility issues or rework.

Using mesh-geometry relationships to transfer analysis models between CAE tools

Integrating analysis and design models is a complex task due to differences between the models and the architectures of the toolsets used to create them. This complexity is increased with the use of many different tools for specific tasks using an analysis process. In this work various design and analysis models are linked throughout the design lifecycle, allowing them to be moved between packages in a way not currently available. Three technologies named Cellular Modeling, Virtual Topology and Equivalencing are combined to demonstrate how different finite element meshes generated on abstract analysis geometries can be linked to their original geometry. Cellular models allow interfaces between adjacent cells to be extracted and exploited to transfer analysis attributes such as mesh associativity or boundary conditions between equivalent model representations. Virtual Topology descriptions used for geometry clean-up operations are explicitly stored so they can be reused by downstream applications. Establishing the equivalence relationships between models enables analysts to utilize multiple packages for specialist tasks without worrying about compatibility issues or substantial rework.

Energy compensation in the real world: Good compensation for small portions of chocolate and biscuits over short time periods in complicit consumers using commercially available foods

While investigations using covert food manipulations tend to suggest that individuals are poor at adjusting for previous energy intake, in the real world adults rarely consume foods of which they are ill-informed. This study investigated the impact in fully complicit consumers of consuming commercially available dark chocolate, milk chocolate, sweet biscuits and fruit bars on subsequent appetite. Using a repeated measures design, participants received four small portions (4 × 10-11 g) of either dark chocolate, milk chocolate, sweet biscuits, fruit bars or no food throughout five separate study days (counterbalanced in order), and test meal intake, hunger, liking and acceptability were measured. Participants consumed significantly less at lunch following dark chocolate, milk chocolate and sweet biscuits compared to no food (smallest t(19) = 2.47, p = 0.02), demonstrating very good energy compensation (269-334%). No effects were found for fruit bars (t(19) = 1.76, p = 0.09), in evening meal intakes (F(4,72) = 0.62, p = 0.65) or in total intake (lunch + evening meal + food portions) (F(4,72) = 0.40, p = 0.69). No differences between conditions were found in measures of hunger (largest F(4,76) = 1.26, p = 0.29), but fruit bars were significantly less familiar than all other foods (smallest t(19) = 3.14, p = 0.01). These findings demonstrate good compensation over the short term for small portions of familiar foods in complicit consumers. Findings are most plausibly explained as a result of participant awareness and cognitions, although the nature of these cognitions cannot be discerned from this study. These findings however, also suggest that covert manipulations may have limited transfer to real world scenarios.

Effect of turbine inlet temperature on blade tip leakage flow and heat transfer

One of the most critical gas turbine engine components, rotor blade tip and casing, are exposed to high thermal load. It becomes a significant design challenge to protect the turbine materials from this severe situation. As a result of geometric complexity and experimental limitations, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools have been used to predict blade tip leakage flow aerodynamics and heat transfer at typical engine operating conditions. In this paper, the effect of turbine inlet temperature on the tip leakage flow structure and heat transfer has been studied numerically. Uniform low (LTIT: 444 K) and high (HTIT: 800 K) turbine inlet temperature have been considered. The results showed the higher turbine inlet temperature yields the higher velocity and temperature variations in the leakage flow aerodynamics and heat transfer. For a given turbine geometry and on-design operating conditions, the turbine power output can be increased by 1.48 times, when the turbine inlet temperature increases 1.80 times. Whereas the averaged heat fluxes on the casing and the blade tip become 2.71 and 2.82 times larger, respectively. Therefore, about 2.8 times larger cooling capacity is required to keep the same turbine material temperature. Furthermore, the maximum heat flux on the blade tip of high turbine inlet temperature case reaches up to 3.348 times larger than that of LTIT case. The effect of the interaction of stator and rotor on heat transfer features is also explored using unsteady simulations.

A small supramolecular system which emulates the unidirectional, path-selective photoinduced electron transfer (PET) of the bacterial photosynthetic reaction centre (PRC)

The singlet excited state of the 4-aminonaphthalimide fluorophore in 1a and 1b directs electron transfer from intramolecular but external amine groups along only one of two available paths.

Availability and transfer to grain of As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in a barley agri-system: Impact of biochar, organic and mineral fertilizers

With biochar becoming an emerging soil amendment and a tool to mitigate climate change, there are only a few studies documenting its effects on trace element cycling in agriculture. Zn and Cu are deficient in many human diets, whilst exposures to As, Pb and Cd need to be decreased. Biochar has been shown to affect many of them mainly at a bench or greenhouse scale, but field research is not available. In our experiment we studied the impact of biochar, as well as its interactions with organic (compost and sewage sludge) and mineral fertilisers (NPK and nitrosulfate), on trace element mobility in a Mediterranean agricultural field (east of Madrid, Spain) cropped with barley. At harvesting time, we analysed the soluble fraction, the available fraction (assessed with the diffusive gradients in thin gels technique, DGT) and the concentration of trace elements in barley grain. No treatment was able to significantly increase Zn, Cu or Ni concentration in barley grain, limiting the application for cereal fortification. Biochar helped to reduce Cd and Pb in grain, whereas As concentration slightly increased. Overall biochar amendments demonstrated a potential to decrease Cd uptake in cereals, a substantial pathway of exposure in the Spanish population, whereas mineral fertilisation and sewage sludge increased grain Cd and Pb. In the soil, biochar helped to stabilise Pb and Cd, while marginally increasing As release/mobilisation. Some of the fertilisation practises or treatments increased toxic metals and As solubility in soil, but never to an extent high enough to be considered an environmental risk. Future research may try to fortify Zn, Cu and Ni using other combinations of organic amendments and different parent biomass to produce enriched biochars.

Mitochondrial Transfer via Tunneling Nanotubes (TNT) is an Important Mechanism by which Mesenchymal Stem Cells Enhance Macrophage Phagocytosis in the in vitro and in vivo Models of ARDS

Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) have been reported to improve bacterial clearance in pre-clinical models of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis. The mechanism of this effect is not fully elucidated yet. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that the anti-microbial effect of MSC in vivo depends on their modulation of macrophage phagocytic activity which occurs through mitochondrial transfer. We established that selective depletion of alveolar macrophages (AM) with intranasal (IN) administration of liposomal clodronate resulted in complete abrogation of MSC anti-microbial effect in the in vivo model of E.coli pneumonia. Furthermore, we showed that MSC administration was associated with enhanced AM phagocytosis in vivo. We showed that direct co-culture of MSC with monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) enhanced their phagocytic capacity. By fluorescent imaging and flow cytometry we demonstrated extensive mitochondrial transfer from MSC to macrophages which occurred at least partially through TNT-like structures. We also detected that lung macrophages readily acquire MSC mitochondria in vivo, and macrophages which are positive for MSC mitochondria display more pronounced phagocytic activity. Finally, partial inhibition of mitochondrial transfer through blockage of TNT formation by MSC resulted in failure to improve macrophage bioenergetics and complete abrogation of the MSC effect on macrophage phagocytosis in vitro and the anti-microbial effect of MSC in vivo.

Collectively, this work for the first time demonstrates that mitochondrial transfer from MSC to innate immune cells leads to enhancement in phagocytic activity and reveals an important novel mechanism for the anti-microbial effect of MSC in ARDS.

Prior knowledge transfer across transcriptional data sets and technologies using compositional statistics yields new mislabelled ovarian cell line

Here, we describe gene expression compositional assignment (GECA), a powerful, yet simple method based on compositional statistics that can validate the transfer of prior knowledge, such as gene lists, into independent data sets, platforms and technologies. Transcriptional profiling has been used to derive gene lists that stratify patients into prognostic molecular subgroups and assess biomarker performance in the pre-clinical setting. Archived public data sets are an invaluable resource for subsequent in silico validation, though their use can lead to data integration issues. We show that GECA can be used without the need for normalising expression levels between data sets and can outperform rank-based correlation methods. To validate GECA, we demonstrate its success in the cross-platform transfer of gene lists in different domains including: bladder cancer staging, tumour site of origin and mislabelled cell lines. We also show its effectiveness in transferring an epithelial ovarian cancer prognostic gene signature across technologies, from a microarray to a next-generation sequencing setting. In a final case study, we predict the tumour site of origin and histopathology of epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines. In particular, we identify and validate the commonly-used cell line OVCAR-5 as non-ovarian, being gastrointestinal in origin. GECA is available as an open-source R package.