Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

Distributed MPC for Frequency Regulation in Multi-Terminal HVDC Grids

High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) lines allow large quantities of power to be
transferred between two points in an electrical power system. A Multi-Terminal HVDC (MTDC) grid consists of a meshed network of HVDC lines, and this allows energy reserves to be shared between a number of AC areas in an efficient manner. Secondary Frequency Control (SFC) algorithms return the frequencies in areas connected by AC or DC lines to their original setpoints after Primary Frequency Controllers have been called following a contingency. Where multiple
TSOs are responsible for different parts of a MTDC grid it may not be possible to implement SFC from a centralised location. Thus, in this paper a simple gain based distributed Model Predictive Control strategy is proposed for Secondary Frequency Control of MTDC grids which allows TSOs to cooperatively perform SFC without the need for centralised coordination.

Optimal Scheduling Methods to Integrate Plug-In Electric Vehicles with the Power System: A Review

The introduction of the Tesla in 2008 has demonstrated to the public of the potential of electric vehicles in terms of reducing fuel consumption and green-house gas from the transport sector. It has brought electric vehicles back into the spotlight worldwide at a moment when fossil fuel prices were reaching unexpected high due to increased demand and strong economic growth. The energy storage capabilities from of fleets of electric vehicles as well as the potentially random discharging and charging offers challenges to the grid in terms of operation and control. Optimal scheduling strategies are key to integrating large numbers of electric vehicles and the smart grid. In this paper, state-of-the-art optimization methods are reviewed on scheduling strategies for the grid integration with electric vehicles. The paper starts with a concise introduction to analytical charging strategies, followed by a review of a number of classical numerical optimization methods, including linear programming, non-linear programming, dynamic programming as well as some other means such as queuing theory. Meta-heuristic techniques are then discussed to deal with the complex, high-dimensional and multi-objective scheduling problem associated with stochastic charging and discharging of electric vehicles. Finally, future research directions are suggested.

Towards a Cyber-physical Resilience Framework for Smart Grids

As modern power grids move towards becoming a smart grid, there is an increasing reliance on the data that is transmitted and processed by ICT systems. This reliance introduces new digital attack vectors. Many of the proposed approaches that aim to address this problem largely focus on applying well-known ICT security solutions. However, what is needed are approaches that meet the complex concerns of the smart grid as a cyber-physical system. Furthermore, to support the automatic control loops that exist in a power grid, similarly automatic security and resilience mechanisms are needed that rely on minimal operator intervention. The research proposed in this paper aims to develop a framework that ensures resilient smart grid operation in light of successful cyber-attacks.

Optimization of Controller Parameters for Energy Saving

Among various technologies to tackle the twin challenges of sustainable energy supply and climate change, energy saving through advanced control plays a crucial role in decarbonizing the whole energy system. Modern control technologies, such as optimal control and model predictive control do provide a framework to simultaneously regulate the system performance and limit control energy. However, few have been done so far to exploit the full potential of controller design in reducing the energy consumption while maintaining desirable system performance. This paper investigates the correlations between control energy consumption and system performance using two popular control approaches widely used in the industry, namely the PI control and subspace model predictive control. Our investigation shows that the controller design is a delicate synthesis procedure in achieving better trade-o between system performance and energy saving, and proper choice of values for the control parameters may potentially save a significant amount of energy

On Variable Selection of a Nonlinear Non-parametric System with a Limited Data Set: A Stepwise Algorithm

his paper considers a problem of identification for a high dimensional nonlinear non-parametric system when only a limited data set is available. The algorithms are proposed for this purpose which exploit the relationship between the input variables and the output and further the inter-dependence of input variables so that the importance of the input variables can be established. A key to these algorithms is the non-parametric two stage input selection algorithm.

On Infinite Time Performance of Nonlinear Model Predictive Controllers

This paper addresses the problem of infinite time performance of model predictive controllers applied to constrained nonlinear systems. The total performance is compared with a finite horizon optimal cost to reveal performance limits of closed-loop model predictive control systems. Based on the Principle of Optimality, an upper and a lower bound of the ratio between the total performance and the finite horizon optimal cost are obtained explicitly expressed by the optimization horizon. The results also illustrate, from viewpoint of performance, how model predictive controllers approaches to infinite optimal controllers as the optimization horizon increases.

A statistical process control approach for automatic anti-islanding detection using synchrophasors

Anti-islanding protection is becoming increasingly important due to the rapid installation of distributed generation from renewable resources like wind, tidal and wave, solar PV, bio-fuels, as well as from other resources like diesel. Unintentional islanding presents a potential risk for damaging utility plants and equipment connected from the demand side, as well as to public and personnel in utility plants. This paper investigates automatic islanding detection. This is achieved by deploying a statistical process control approach for fault detection with the real-time data acquired through a wide area measurement system, which is based on Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) technology. In particular, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to project the data into principal component subspace and residual space, and two statistics are used to detect the occurrence of fault. Then a fault reconstruction method is used to identify the fault and its development over time. The proposed scheme has been used in a real system and the results have confirmed that the proposed method can correctly identify the fault and islanding site.

Automatic extruder for processing recycled polymers with ultrasound and temperature control system

Melt viscosity is one of the main factors affecting product quality in extrusion processes particularly with regard to recycled polymers. However, due to wide variability in the physical properties of recycled feedstock, it is difficult to maintain the melt viscosity during extrusion of polymer blends and obtain good quality product without generating scrap. This research investigates the application of ultrasound and temperature control in an automatic extruder controller, which has ability to maintain constant melt viscosity from variable recycled polymer feedstock during extrusion processing. An ultrasonic modulation system has been developed and fitted to the extruder prior to the die to convey ultrasonic energy from a high power ultrasonic generator to the polymer melt. Two separate control loops have been developed to run simultaneously in one controller: the first loop controls the ultrasonic energy or temperature to maintain constant die pressure, the second loop is used to control extruder screw speed to maintain constant throughput at the extruder die. Time response and energy consumption of the control methods in real-time experiments are also investigated and reported this paper.

Control Strategues for Automatic Generation Control over MTDC Grid

Increasingly in power systems, there is a trend towards the sharing of reserves and integration of markets over wide areas in order to enable increased penetration of renewable sources in interconnected power systems. In this paper, a number of simple PI and gain based Model Predictive Control algorithms are proposed for Automatic Generation Control in AC areas connected to Multi-Terminal Direct Current grids. The paper discusses how this approach improves the sharing of secondary reserves and could assist in achieving EU energy targets for 2030 and beyond.

Dual task performance of working memory and postural control in major depressive disorder

Objective: Previous studies with patients diagnosed with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) revealed deficits in working memory and executive functions. In the present study we investigated whether patients with MDD have the ability to allocate cognitive resources in dual task performance of a highly challenging cognitive task (working memory) and a task that is seemingly automatic in nature (postural control). Method: Fifteen young (18–35 years old) patients with MDD and 24 healthy age-matched controls performed a working memory task and two postural control tasks (standing on a stable or on a moving platform) both separately (single task) and concurrently (dual task). Results: Postural stability under single task conditions was similar in the two groups, and in line with earlier studies, MDD patients recalled fewer working memory items than controls. To equate working memory challenges for patients and controls, task difficulty (number of items presented) in dual task was individually adjusted such that accuracy of working memory performance was similar for the two groups under single task conditions. Patients showed greater postural instability in dual task performance on the stable platform, and more importantly when posture task difficulty increased (moving platform) they showed deficits in both working memory accuracy and postural stability compared with healthy controls. Conclusions: We interpret our results as evidence for executive control deficits in MDD patients that affect their task coordination. In multitasking, these deficits affect not only cognitive but also sensorimotor task performance.

A qualitative study of psychological, social and behavioral barriers to appropriate food portion size control

Background: Given the worldwide prevalence of overweight and obesity, there is a clear need for meaningful practical healthy eating advice - not only in relation to food choice, but also on appropriate food portion sizes. As the majority of portion size research to date has been overwhelmingly quantitative in design, there is a clear need to qualitatively explore consumers’ views in order to fully understand how food portion size decisions are made. Using qualitative methodology this present study aimed to explore consumers’ views about factors influencing their portion size selection and consumption and to identify barriers to appropriate portion size control.

Methods: Ten focus groups with four to nine participants in each were formed with a total of 66 persons (aged 19–64 years) living on the island of Ireland. The semi-structured discussions elicited participants’ perceptions of suggested serving size guidance and explored the influence of personal, social and environmental factors on their food portion size consumption. Audiotapes of the discussions were professionally transcribed verbatim, loaded into NVivo 9, and analysed using an inductive thematic analysis procedure.
Results: The rich descriptive data derived from participants highlight that unhealthy portion size behaviors emanate from various psychological, social and behavioral factors. These bypass reflective and deliberative control, and converge to constitute significant barriers to healthy portion size control. Seven significant barriers to healthy portion size control were apparent: (1) lack of clarity and irrelevance of suggested serving size guidance; (2) guiltless eating; (3) lack of self-control over food cues; (4) distracted eating; (5) social pressures; (6) emotional eating rewards;
and (7) quantification habits ingrained from childhood.

Conclusions: Portion size control strategies should empower consumers to overcome these effects so that the consumption of appropriate food portion sizes becomes automatic and habitual.
Keywords: Food portion size, Barriers, Obesity, Consumers, Qualitative study. © 2013 Spence et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd