Comparisons, mental models, and the action effect in judgments of regret

People tend to attribute more regret to a character who has decided to take action and experienced a negative outcome than to one who has decided not to act and experienced a negative outcome. For some decisions, however, this finding is not observed in a between-participants design and thus appears to rely on comparisons between people's representations of action and their representations of inaction. In this article, we outline a mental models account that explains findings from studies that have used within- and between-participants designs, and we suggest that, for decisions with uncertain counterfactual outcomes, information about the consequences of a decision to act causes people to flesh out their representation of the counterfactual states of affairs for inaction. In three experiments, we confirm our predictions about participants' fleshing out of representations, demonstrating that an action effect occurs only when information about the consequences of action is available to participants as they rate the nonactor and when this information about action is informative with respect to judgments about inaction. It is important to note that the action effect always occurs when the decision scenario specifies certain counterfactual outcomes. These results suggest that people sometimes base their attributions of regret on comparisons among different sets of mental models.

Decoherence-based exploration of d-dimensional one-way quantum computation: Information transfer and basic gates

We study the effects of amplitude and phase damping decoherence in d-dimensional one-way quantum computation. We focus our attention on low dimensions and elementary unidimensional cluster state resources. Our investigation shows how information transfer and entangling gate simulations are affected for d >= 2. To understand motivations for extending the one-way model to higher dimensions, we describe how basic qudit cluster states deteriorate under environmental noise of experimental interest. In order to protect quantum information from the environment, we consider encoding logical qubits into qudits and compare entangled pairs of linear qubit-cluster states to single qudit clusters of equal length and total dimension. A significant reduction in the performance of cluster state resources for d > 2 is found when Markovian-type decoherence models are present.

Hybridization of a class of "second order" models of traffic flow

Despite the simultaneous progress of traffic modelling both on the macroscopic and microscopic front, recent works [E. Bourrel, J.B. Lessort, Mixing micro and macro representation of traffic flow: a hybrid model based on the LWR theory, Transport. Res. Rec. 1852 (2003) 193–200; D. Helbing, M. Treiber, Critical discussion of “synchronized flow”, Coop. Transport. Dyn. 1 (2002) 2.1–2.24; A. Hennecke, M. Treiber, D. Helbing, Macroscopic simulations of open systems and micro–macro link, in: D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, M. Schreckenberg, D.E. Wolf (Eds.), Traffic and Granular Flow ’99, Springer, Berlin, 2000, pp. 383–388] highlighted that one of the most promising way to simulate efficiently traffic flow on large road networks is a clever combination of both traffic representations: the hybrid modelling. Our focus in this paper is to propose two hybrid models for which the macroscopic (resp. mesoscopic) part is based on a class of second order model [A. Aw, M. Rascle, Resurection of second order models of traffic flow?, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 60 (2000) 916–938] whereas the microscopic part is a Follow-the Leader type model [D.C. Gazis, R. Herman, R.W. Rothery, Nonlinear follow-the-leader models of traffic flow, Oper. Res. 9 (1961) 545–567; R. Herman, I. Prigogine, Kinetic Theory of Vehicular Traffic, American Elsevier, New York, 1971]. For the first hybrid model, we define precisely the translation of boundary conditions at interfaces and for the second one we explain the synchronization processes. Furthermore, through some numerical simulations we show that the waves propagation is not disturbed and the mass is accurately conserved when passing from one traffic representation to another.

Assessment of the benefits of Discrete Conditional Survival Models in modelling ambulance response times

Many of the challenges faced in health care delivery can be informed through building models. In particular, Discrete Conditional Survival (DCS) models, recently under development, can provide policymakers with a flexible tool to assess time-to-event data. The DCS model is capable of modelling the survival curve based on various underlying distribution types and is capable of clustering or grouping observations (based on other covariate information) external to the distribution fits. The flexibility of the model comes through the choice of data mining techniques that are available in ascertaining the different subsets and also in the choice of distribution types available in modelling these informed subsets. This paper presents an illustrated example of the Discrete Conditional Survival model being deployed to represent ambulance response-times by a fully parameterised model. This model is contrasted against use of a parametric accelerated failure-time model, illustrating the strength and usefulness of Discrete Conditional Survival models.

Watermarking for Multimedia Security using Complex Wavelets

This paper investigates the application of complex wavelet transforms to the field of digital data hiding. Complex wavelets offer improved directional selectivity and shift invariance over their discretely sampled counterparts allowing for better adaptation of watermark distortions to the host media. Two methods of deriving visual models for the watermarking system are adapted to the complex wavelet transforms and their performances are compared. To produce improved capacity a spread transform embedding algorithm is devised, this combines the robustness of spread spectrum methods with the high capacity of quantization based methods. Using established information theoretic methods, limits of watermark capacity are derived that demonstrate the superiority of complex wavelets over discretely sampled wavelets. Finally results for the algorithm against commonly used attacks demonstrate its robustness and the improved performance offered by complex wavelet transforms.

Cross-validation of geo-electrical and hydrogeological models to evaluate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers

The validation of variable-density flow models simulating seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers requires information about concentration distribution in groundwater. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) provides relevant data for this purpose. However, inverse modeling is not accurate because of the non-uniqueness of solutions. Such difficulties in evaluating seawater intrusion can be overcome by coupling geophysical data and groundwater modeling. First, the resistivity distribution obtained by inverse geo-electrical modeling is established. Second, a 3-D variable-density flow hydrogeological model is developed. Third, using Archie's Law, the electrical resistivity model deduced from salt concentration is compared to the formerly interpreted electrical model. Finally, aside from that usual comparison-validation, the theoretical geophysical response of concentrations simulated with the groundwater model can be compared to field-measured resistivity data. This constitutes a cross-validation of both the inverse geo-electrical model and the groundwater model.
[Comte, J.-C., and O. Banton (2007), Cross-validation of geo-electrical and hydrogeological models to evaluate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L10402, doi:10.1029/2007GL029981.]

Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

The Colorectal cancer disease-specific transcriptome may facilitate the discovery of more biologically and clinically relevant information

BACKGROUND: To date, there are no clinically reliable predictive markers of response to the current treatment regimens for advanced colorectal cancer. The aim of the current study was to compare and assess the power of transcriptional profiling using a generic microarray and a disease-specific transcriptome-based microarray. We also examined the biological and clinical relevance of the disease-specific transcriptome.

METHODS: DNA microarray profiling was carried out on isogenic sensitive and 5-FU-resistant HCT116 colorectal cancer cell lines using the Affymetrix HG-U133 Plus2.0 array and the Almac Diagnostics Colorectal cancer disease specific Research tool. In addition, DNA microarray profiling was also carried out on pre-treatment metastatic colorectal cancer biopsies using the colorectal cancer disease specific Research tool. The two microarray platforms were compared based on detection of probesets and biological information.

RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the disease-specific transcriptome-based microarray was able to out-perform the generic genomic-based microarray on a number of levels including detection of transcripts and pathway analysis. In addition, the disease-specific microarray contains a high percentage of antisense transcripts and further analysis demonstrated that a number of these exist in sense:antisense pairs. Comparison between cell line models and metastatic CRC patient biopsies further demonstrated that a number of the identified sense:antisense pairs were also detected in CRC patient biopsies, suggesting potential clinical relevance.

CONCLUSIONS: Analysis from our in vitro and clinical experiments has demonstrated that many transcripts exist in sense:antisense pairs including IGF2BP2, which may have a direct regulatory function in the context of colorectal cancer. While the functional relevance of the antisense transcripts has been established by many studies, their functional role is currently unclear; however, the numbers that have been detected by the disease-specific microarray would suggest that they may be important regulatory transcripts. This study has demonstrated the power of a disease-specific transcriptome-based approach and highlighted the potential novel biologically and clinically relevant information that is gained when using such a methodology.

Adaptation and Reintegration of Proprioceptive Information in Young and Older Adults' Postural Control

We investigated age-related changes in adaptation and sensory reintegration in postural control without vision. In two sessions, participants adapted their posture to sway reference and to reverse sway reference conditions, the former reducing (near eliminating) and the latter enhancing (near doubling) proprioceptive information for posture by means of support-surface rotations in proportion to body sway. Participants stood on a stable platform for 3 min (baseline) followed by 18 min of sway reference or reverse sway reference (adaptation) and finally again on a stable platform for 3 min (reintegration). Results showed that when inaccurate proprioception was introduced, anterior-posterior (AP) sway path length increased in comparable levels in the two age groups. During adaptation, young and older adults reduced postural sway at the same rate. On restoration of the stable platform in the reintegration phase, a sizeable aftereffect of increased AP path length was observed in both groups, which was greater in magnitude and duration for older adults. In line with linear feedback models of postural control, spectral analyses showed that this aftereffect differed between the two platform conditions. In the sway-referenced condition, a switch from low- to high-frequency COP sway marked the transition from reduced to normal proprioceptive information. The opposite switch was observed in the reverse sway referenced condition. Our findings illustrate age-related slowing in participants' postural control adjustments to sudden changes in environmental conditions. Over and above differences in postural control, our results implicate sensory reweighting as a specific mechanism highly sensitive to age-related decline.

ASR emotional speech: Clarifying the issues and enhancing performance

There are multiple reasons to expect that recognising the verbal content of emotional speech will be a difficult problem, and recognition rates reported in the literature are in fact low. Including information about prosody improves recognition rate for emotions simulated by actors, but its relevance to the freer patterns of spontaneous speech is unproven. This paper shows that recognition rate for spontaneous emotionally coloured speech can be improved by using a language model based on increased representation of emotional utterances. The models are derived by adapting an already existing corpus, the British National Corpus (BNC). An emotional lexicon is used to identify emotionally coloured words, and sentences containing these words are recombined with the BNC to form a corpus with a raised proportion of emotional material. Using a language model based on that technique improves recognition rate by about 20%. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

A New Gradient Descent Approach for Local Learning of Fuzzy Neural Models

The majority of reported learning methods for Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy neural models to date mainly focus on the improvement of their accuracy. However, one of the key design requirements in building an interpretable fuzzy model is that each obtained rule consequent must match well with the system local behaviour when all the rules are aggregated to produce the overall system output. This is one of the distinctive characteristics from black-box models such as neural networks. Therefore, how to find a desirable set of fuzzy partitions and, hence, to identify the corresponding consequent models which can be directly explained in terms of system behaviour presents a critical step in fuzzy neural modelling. In this paper, a new learning approach considering both nonlinear parameters in the rule premises and linear parameters in the rule consequents is proposed. Unlike the conventional two-stage optimization procedure widely practised in the field where the two sets of parameters are optimized separately, the consequent parameters are transformed into a dependent set on the premise parameters, thereby enabling the introduction of a new integrated gradient descent learning approach. A new Jacobian matrix is thus proposed and efficiently computed to achieve a more accurate approximation of the cost function by using the second-order Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method. Several other interpretability issues about the fuzzy neural model are also discussed and integrated into this new learning approach. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the resultant structure of the fuzzy neural models and the effectiveness of the proposed new algorithm, and compared with the results from some well-known methods.

A spatio-temporal 2D-models framework for human pose recovery in monocular sequences

This paper addresses the pose recovery problem of a particular articulated object: the human body. In this model-based approach, the 2D-shape is associated to the corresponding stick figure allowing the joint segmentation and pose recovery of the subject observed in the scene. The main disadvantage of 2D-models is their restriction to the viewpoint. To cope with this limitation, local spatio-temporal 2D-models corresponding to many views of the same sequences are trained, concatenated and sorted in a global framework. Temporal and spatial constraints are then considered to build the probabilistic transition matrix (PTM) that gives a frame to frame estimation of the most probable local models to use during the fitting procedure, thus limiting the feature space. This approach takes advantage of 3D information avoiding the use of a complex 3D human model. The experiments carried out on both indoor and outdoor sequences have demonstrated the ability of this approach to adequately segment pedestrians and estimate their poses independently of the direction of motion during the sequence. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.