How do grazers achieve their distribution? A continuum of models from random diffusion to the ideal free distribution using biased random walks

A conceptual model is described for generating distributions of grazing animals, according to their searching behavior, to investigate the mechanisms animals may use to achieve their distributions. The model simulates behaviors ranging from random diffusion, through taxis and cognitively aided navigation (i.e., using memory), to the optimization extreme of the Ideal Free Distribution. These behaviors are generated from simulation of biased diffusion that operates at multiple scales simultaneously, formalizing ideas of multiple-scale foraging behavior. It uses probabilistic bias to represent decisions, allowing multiple search goals to be combined (e.g., foraging and social goals) and the representation of suboptimal behavior. By allowing bias to arise at multiple scales within the environment, each weighted relative to the others, the model can represent different scales of simultaneous decision-making and scale-dependent behavior. The model also allows different constraints to be applied to the animal's ability (e.g., applying food-patch accessibility and information limits). Simulations show that foraging-decision randomness and spatial scale of decision bias have potentially profound effects on both animal intake rate and the distribution of resources in the environment. Spatial variograms show that foraging strategies can differentially change the spatial pattern of resource abundance in the environment to one characteristic of the foraging strategy.</

Migratory navigation in birds: new opportunities in an era of fast-developing tracking technology

Birds have remained the dominant model for studying the mechanisms of animal navigation for decades, with much of what has been discovered coming from laboratory studies or model systems. The miniaturisation of tracking technology in recent years now promises opportunities for studying navigation during migration itself (migratory navigation) on an unprecedented scale. Even if migration tracking studies are principally being designed for other purposes, we argue that attention to salient environmental variables during the design or analysis of a study may enable a host of navigational questions to be addressed, greatly enriching the field. We explore candidate variables in the form of a series of contrasts (e. g. land vs ocean or night vs day migration), which may vary naturally between migratory species, populations or even within the life span of a migrating individual. We discuss how these contrasts might help address questions of sensory mechanisms, spatiotemporal representational strategies and adaptive variation in navigational ability. We suggest that this comparative approach may help enrich our knowledge about the natural history of migratory navigation in birds.

Visualising Textual Knowledge about Risks to Aid Risk Communication

This paper demonstrates a potential application for latent semantic analysis and similar techniques in visualising the differences between two levels of knowledge about a risk issue. The HIV/AIDS risk issue will be examined and the semantic clusters of key words in a technical corpora derived from specific literature about HIV/AIDS will be compared with the semantic clusters of those in more general corpora. It is hoped that these comparisons will create a fast and efficient complementary approach to the articulation of mental models of risk issues that could be used to target possible inconsistencies between expert and lay mental models.

Supply Chain Management in Confined Site Construction: Strategies to Reduce Delay in the Delivery of Materials to Site

With the increase in construction in dense urban environments, the delays associated with managing the material supply chain to site is called into question. Purpose: The aim of this investigation is to gain the perspective of construction contractors operating in a dense urban environment and the resulting strategies adopted to reduce delays in the delivery of materials to site. Methodology: This is achieved through incorporating a comprehensive literature review on the subject in conjunction with industry interviews with construction professionals in the identification of various management issues and corresponding strategies in the reduction of delays in the delivery of materials to site. Findings: The key issue which emerges is the lack of space for unloading bays while the corresponding key strategy is to schedule deliveries outside peak congestion times. Practical Implication: With confined site construction evident throughout the industry and the noted importance of an effective supply chain, the findings here in further assist on-site management in the daily task of ensuring the effective delivery and off-loading of materials in a complex and hazardous environment. Originality/Value: This research aids on-site management of confined site environments in the coordination of the material supply chain to site.

Flexibility of Continental Navigation and Migration in European Mallards

The ontogeny of continent-wide navigation mechanisms of the individual organism, despite being crucial for the understanding of animal movement and migration, is still poorly understood. Several previous studies, mainly conducted on passerines, indicate that inexperienced, juvenile birds may not generally correct for displacement during fall migration. Waterbirds such as the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos, Linnaeus 1758) are more flexible in their migration behavior than most migratory songbirds, but previous experiments with waterbirds have not yet allowed clear conclusions about their navigation abilities. Here we tested whether immature mallard ducks correct for latitudinal displacement during fall migration within Europe. During two consecutive fall migration periods, we caught immature females on a stopover site in southeast Sweden, and translocated a group of them ca. 1,000 km to southern Germany. We followed the movements of the ducks via satellite GPS-tracking and observed their migration decisions during the fall and consecutive spring migration. The control animals released in Ottenby behaved as expected from banding recoveries: they continued migration during the winter and in spring returned to the population's breeding grounds in the Baltics and Northwest Russia. Contrary to the control animals, the translocated mallards did not continue migration and stayed at Lake Constance. In spring, three types of movement tactics could be observed: 61.5% of the ducks (16 of 26) stayed around Lake Constance, 27% (7 of 26) migrated in a northerly direction towards Sweden and 11.5% of the individuals (3 of 26) headed east for ca. 1,000 km and then north. We suggest that young female mallards flexibly adjust their migration tactics and develop a navigational map that allows them to return to their natal breeding area.

Advantages and limitations of navigation-based multicriteria optimization (MCO) for localized prostate cancer IMRT planning

Efficacy of inverse planning is becoming increasingly important for advanced radiotherapy techniques. This study's aims were to validate multicriteria optimization (MCO) in RayStation (v2.4, RaySearch Laboratories, Sweden) against standard intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) optimization in Oncentra (v4.1, Nucletron BV, the Netherlands) and characterize dose differences due to conversion of navigated MCO plans into deliverable multileaf collimator apertures. Step-and-shoot IMRT plans were created for 10 patients with localized prostate cancer using both standard optimization and MCO. Acceptable standard IMRT plans with minimal average rectal dose were chosen for comparison with deliverable MCO plans. The trade-off was, for the MCO plans, managed through a user interface that permits continuous navigation between fluence-based plans. Navigated MCO plans were made deliverable at incremental steps along a trajectory between maximal target homogeneity and maximal rectal sparing. Dosimetric differences between navigated and deliverable MCO plans were also quantified. MCO plans, chosen as acceptable under navigated and deliverable conditions resulted in similar rectal sparing compared with standard optimization (33.7 ± 1.8Gy vs 35.5 ± 4.2Gy, p = 0.117). The dose differences between navigated and deliverable MCO plans increased as higher priority was placed on rectal avoidance. If the best possible deliverable MCO was chosen, a significant reduction in rectal dose was observed in comparison with standard optimization (30.6 ± 1.4Gy vs 35.5 ± 4.2Gy, p = 0.047). Improvements were, however, to some extent, at the expense of less conformal dose distributions, which resulted in significantly higher doses to the bladder for 2 of the 3 tolerance levels. In conclusion, similar IMRT plans can be created for patients with prostate cancer using MCO compared with standard optimization. Limitations exist within MCO regarding conversion of navigated plans to deliverable apertures, particularly for plans that emphasize avoidance of critical structures. Minimizing these differences would result in better quality treatments for patients with prostate cancer who were treated with radiotherapy using MCO plans.

Integrating Multiple Point Statistics with Aerial Geophysical Data to assist Groundwater Flow Models

The process of accounting for heterogeneity has made significant advances in statistical research, primarily in the framework of stochastic analysis and the development of multiple-point statistics (MPS). Among MPS techniques, the direct sampling (DS) method is tested to determine its ability to delineate heterogeneity from aerial magnetics data in a regional sandstone aquifer intruded by low-permeability volcanic dykes in Northern Ireland, UK. The use of two two-dimensional bivariate training images aids in creating spatial probability distributions of heterogeneities of hydrogeological interest, despite relatively ‘noisy’ magnetics data (i.e. including hydrogeologically irrelevant urban noise and regional geologic effects). These distributions are incorporated into a hierarchy system where previously published density function and upscaling methods are applied to derive regional distributions of equivalent hydraulic conductivity tensor K. Several K models, as determined by several stochastic realisations of MPS dyke locations, are computed within groundwater flow models and evaluated by comparing modelled heads with field observations. Results show a significant improvement in model calibration when compared to a simplistic homogeneous and isotropic aquifer model that does not account for the dyke occurrence evidenced by airborne magnetic data. The best model is obtained when normal and reverse polarity dykes are computed separately within MPS simulations and when a probability threshold of 0.7 is applied. The presented stochastic approach also provides improvement when compared to a previously published deterministic anisotropic model based on the unprocessed (i.e. noisy) airborne magnetics. This demonstrates the potential of coupling MPS to airborne geophysical data for regional groundwater modelling.

Robot and insect navigation by polarized skylight

A study of a large number of published experiments on the behaviour of insects navigating by skylight has led to the design of a system for navigation in lightly clouded skies, suitable for a robot or drone. The design is based on the measurement of the directions in the sky at which the polarization angle, i.e. the angle χ between the polarized E-vector and the meridian, equals ±π/4 or ±(π/4 + π/3) or ±(π/4 - π/3). For any one of these three options, at any given elevation, there are usually 4 such directions and these directions can give the azimuth of the sun accurately in a few short steps, as an insect can do. A simulation shows that this compass is accurate as well as simple and well suited for an insect or robot. A major advantage of this design is that it is close to being invariant to variable cloud cover. Also if at least two of these 12 directions are observed the solar azimuth can still be found by a robot, and possibly by an insect.

Desire for fertility and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in selected antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, North West Oromia, Ethiopia- A cross sectional study

Background: Most recently fertility issues in HIV positive men and women are becoming increasingly important. Because of ART access and its good life effect, it is expected that the need and desire to get married, to have children and to have sexual partners for PLWHA would change with the regard to reproductive health. In Ethiopia HIV positive individuals may or may not have desire to have children. And the extent of this desire and how it varies by individual, health and demographic characteristics is not well known.

Objective: the aim of the study was to assess desire for fertility and associated factors among PLWHA in selected ART clinics of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods: A cross-sectional, institutional-based study that employed quantitative and qualitative in-depth interviews was conducted. Three hundred twenty one study subjects were selected using systematic random sampling technique and the data was collected using interviewer administered structured questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using EPI Info version 3.5.1 and SPSS version 16. P-value <0.05 was taken as statistically significant and logistic regression was used to control potential confounding factors.

Results: Seventy three (57.9%) of the males and seventy six (39%) of the females desired to have children, giving a total of 149(46.4%) of all study participants. PLWHA who desired children were younger (AOR:3.3, 95%CI: 1.3-8.9), married (AOR: 5.8, 95%CI: 2.7-12.8), had no children (AOR: 75, 95%CI: 20.1-273.3) and males (AOR; 1.9, 95%CI: 1.02-3.62) compared with their counter parts. The major reason for those people who did not desire children were having desired number of children 80 (46.5%) followed by fear of HIV transmission to child reported by 42 (24.4%) of them.

Conclusion: A considerable number of PLWHA wants to have a child currently or in the near future. Many variables like socio demography, partner related, number of alive children and HIV related disease condition were significantly associated with fertility desire.

Is the multiracial congregation an answer to the problem of race? Comparative perspectives from South Africa and the USAF

This paper uses a comparative perspective to analyze how multiracial congregations may contribute to racial reconciliation in South Africa. Drawing on the large-scale study of multiracial congregations in the USA by Emerson et al., it examines how they help transform antagonistic identities and make religious contributions to wider reconciliation processes. It compares the American research to an ethnographic study of a congregation in Cape Town, identifying cross-national patterns and South African distinctives, such as discourses about restitution, AIDS, inequality and women. The extent that multiracial congregations can contribute to reconciliation in South Africa is linked to the content of their worship and discourses, but especially to their ability to dismantle racially aligned power structures. © Koninklijke Brill NV, 2008.

Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

True navigation in migrating gulls requires intact olfactory nerves

During migratory journeys, birds may become displaced from their normal migratory route. Experimental evidence has shown that adult birds can correct for such displacements and return to their goal. However, the nature of the cues used by migratory birds to perform long distance navigation is still debated. In this experiment we subjected adult lesser black-backed gulls migrating from their Finnish/Russian breeding grounds (from >60°N) to Africa (to < 5°N) to sensory manipulation, to determine the sensory systems required for navigation. We translocated birds westward (1080 km) or eastward (885 km) to simulate natural navigational challenges. When translocated westwards and outside their migratory corridor birds with olfactory nerve section kept a clear directional preference (southerly) but were unable to compensate for the displacement, while intact birds and gulls with the ophthalmic branch of the trigeminal nerve sectioned oriented towards their population-specific migratory corridor. Thus, air-borne olfactory information seems to be important for migrating gulls to navigate successfully in some circumstances.

Technological aids for the rehabilitation of memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury (Review).

Background The use of technology in healthcare settings is on the increase and may represent a cost-effective means of delivering rehabilitation. Reductions in treatment time, and delivery in the home, are also thought to be benefits of this approach. Children and adolescents with brain injury often experience deficits in memory and executive functioning that can negatively affect their school work, social lives, and future occupations. Effective interventions that can be delivered at home, without the need for high-cost clinical involvement, could provide a means to address a current lack of provision. We have systematically reviewed studies examining the effects of technology-based interventions for the rehabilitation of deficits in memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Objectives To assess the effects of technology-based interventions compared to placebo intervention, no treatment, or other types of intervention, on the executive functioning and memory of children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Search methods We ran the search on the 30 September 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid MEDLINE(R) In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE(R) Daily and Ovid OLDMEDLINE(R), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE (OvidSP), ISI Web of Science (SCI-EXPANDED, SSCI, CPCI-S, and CPSI-SSH), CINAHL Plus (EBSCO), two other databases, and clinical trials registers. We also searched the internet, screened reference lists, and contacted authors of included studies. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing the use of a technological aid for the rehabilitation of children and adolescents with memory or executive-functioning deficits with placebo, no treatment, or another intervention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently reviewed titles and abstracts identified by the search strategy. Following retrieval of full-text manuscripts, two review authors independently performed data extraction and assessed the risk of bias. Main results Four studies (involving 206 participants) met the inclusion criteria for this review. Three studies, involving 194 participants, assessed the effects of online interventions to target executive functioning (that is monitoring and changing behaviour, problem solving, planning, etc.). These studies, which were all conducted by the same research team, compared online interventions against a 'placebo' (participants were given internet resources on brain injury). The interventions were delivered in the family home with additional support or training, or both, from a psychologist or doctoral student. The fourth study investigated the use of a computer program to target memory in addition to components of executive functioning (that is attention, organisation, and problem solving). No information on the study setting was provided, however a speech-language pathologist, teacher, or occupational therapist accompanied participants. Two studies assessed adolescents and young adults with mild to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), while the remaining two studies assessed children and adolescents with moderate to severe TBI. Risk of bias We assessed the risk of selection bias as low for three studies and unclear for one study. Allocation bias was high in two studies, unclear in one study, and low in one study. Only one study (n = 120) was able to conceal allocation from participants, therefore overall selection bias was assessed as high. One study took steps to conceal assessors from allocation (low risk of detection bias), while the other three did not do so (high risk of detection bias). Primary outcome 1: Executive functioning: Technology-based intervention versus placebo Results from meta-analysis of three studies (n = 194) comparing online interventions with a placebo for children and adolescents with TBI, favoured the intervention immediately post-treatment (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.66 to -0.09; P = 0.62; I2 = 0%). (As there is no 'gold standard' measure in the field, we have not translated the SMD back to any particular scale.) This result is thought to represent only a small to medium effect size (using Cohen’s rule of thumb, where 0.2 is a small effect, 0.5 a medium one, and 0.8 or above is a large effect); this is unlikely to have a clinically important effect on the participant. The fourth study (n = 12) reported differences between the intervention and control groups on problem solving (an important component of executive functioning). No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. The quality of evidence for this outcome according to GRADE was very low. This means future research is highly likely to change the estimate of effect. Primary outcome 2: Memory One small study (n = 12) reported a statistically significant difference in improvement in sentence recall between the intervention and control group following an eight-week remediation programme. No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. Secondary outcomes Two studies (n = 158) reported on anxiety/depression as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and were included in a meta-analysis. We found no evidence of an effect with the intervention (mean difference -5.59, 95% CI -11.46 to 0.28; I2 = 53%). The GRADE quality of evidence for this outcome was very low, meaning future research is likely to change the estimate of effect. A single study sought to record adverse events and reported none. Two studies reported on use of the intervention (range 0 to 13 and 1 to 24 sessions). One study reported on social functioning/social competence and found no effect. The included studies reported no data for other secondary outcomes (that is quality of life and academic achievement). Authors' conclusions This review provides low-quality evidence for the use of technology-based interventions in the rehabilitation of executive functions and memory for children and adolescents with TBI. As all of the included studies contained relatively small numbers of participants (12 to 120), our findings should be interpreted with caution. The involvement of a clinician or therapist, rather than use of the technology, may have led to the success of these interventions. Future research should seek to replicate these findings with larger samples, in other regions, using ecologically valid outcome measures, and reduced clinician involvement.

An evaluation of portion size estimation aids precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use of portion size estimation aids (PSEA).

DESIGN: A range of PSEA were used to estimate the serving sizes of a range of commonly eaten foods and rated for ease of use and likelihood of future usage.

SETTING: For each food, participants selected their preferred PSEA from a range of options including: quantities and measures; reference objects; measuring; and indicators on food packets. These PSEA were used to serve out various foods (e.g. liquid, amorphous, and composite dishes). Ease of use and likelihood of future use were noted. The foods were weighed to determine the precision of each PSEA.

SUBJECTS: Males and females aged 18-64 years (n 120).

RESULTS: The quantities and measures were the most precise PSEA (lowest range of weights for estimated portion sizes). However, participants preferred household measures (e.g. 200 ml disposable cup) - deemed easy to use (median rating of 5), likely to use again in future (all scored either 4 or 5 on a scale from 1='not very likely' to 5='very likely to use again') and precise (narrow range of weights for estimated portion sizes). The majority indicated they would most likely use the PSEA preparing a meal (94 %), particularly dinner (86 %) in the home (89 %; all P<0·001) for amorphous grain foods.

CONCLUSIONS: Household measures may be precise, easy to use and acceptable aids for estimating the appropriate portion size of amorphous grain foods.

Autonomous COLREGs Compliant Ship Navigation, Using BridgeSimulators and an Unmanned Vessel

This paper presents an approach to COLREGs compliant ship navigation. A system architecture is proposed, which will be implemented and tested on two platforms: networked bridge simulators and at sea trials using an autonomous unmanned surface vessel. Attention is paid to collision avoidance software and its risk mitigation.