Spatial and Temporal Changes in Soil Organic Carbon Assessment using an Integrated Geostatistical and Compositional Data Analysis Approach

The Irish and UK governments, along with other countries, have made a commitment to limit the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by reducing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This can be achieved (in part) through increasing the sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere including monitoring the amount stored in vegetation and soils. A large proportion of soil carbon is held within peat due to the relatively high carbon density of peat and organic-rich soils. This is particularly important for a country such as Ireland, where some 16% of the land surface is covered by peat. For Northern Ireland, it has been estimated that the total amount of carbon stored in vegetation is 4.4Mt compared to 386Mt stored within peat and soils. As a result it has become increasingly important to measure and monitor changes in stores of carbon in soils. The conservation and restoration of peat covered areas, although ongoing for many years, has become increasingly important. This is summed up in current EU policy outlined by the European Commission (2012) which seeks to assess the relative contributions of the different inputs and outputs of organic carbon and organic matter to and from soil. Results are presented from the EU-funded Tellus Border Soil Carbon Project (2011 to 2013) which aimed to improve current estimates of carbon in soil and peat across Northern Ireland and the bordering counties of the Republic of Ireland.
Historical reports and previous surveys provide baseline data. To monitor change in peat depth and soil organic carbon, these historical data are integrated with more recently acquired airborne geophysical (radiometric) data and ground-based geochemical data generated by two surveys, the Tellus Project (2004-2007: covering Northern Ireland) and the EU-funded Tellus Border project (2011-2013) covering the six bordering counties of the Republic of Ireland, Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth. The concept being applied is that saturated organic-rich soil and peat attenuate gamma-radiation from underlying soils and rocks. This research uses the degree of spatial correlation (coregionalization) between peat depth, soil organic carbon (SOC) and the attenuation of the radiometric signal to update a limited sampling regime of ground-based measurements with remotely acquired data. To comply with the compositional nature of the SOC data (perturbations of loss on ignition [LOI] data), a compositional data analysis approach is investigated. Contemporaneous ground-based measurements allow corroboration for the updated mapped outputs. This provides a methodology that can be used to improve estimates of soil carbon with minimal impact to sensitive habitats (like peat bogs), but with maximum output of data and knowledge.

Helping the most vulnerable out of the poverty trap and reducing inequality: Policies, strategies, and services for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder, including intellectual and neurodevelopmental disabilities: Benchmarking Autism Services Efficacy: BASE Project (Volume 3) Secondary Data analysis

1) Executive Summary
Legislation (Autism Act NI, 2011), a cross-departmental strategy (Autism Strategy 2013-2020) and a first action plan (2013-2016) have been developed in Northern Ireland in order to support individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) without a prior thorough baseline assessment of need. At the same time, there are large existing data sets about the population in NI that had never been subjected to a secondary data analysis with regards to data on ASD. This report covers the first comprehensive secondary data analysis and thereby aims to inform future policy and practice.
Following a search of all existing, large-scale, regional or national data sets that were relevant to the lives of individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Northern Ireland, extensive secondary data analyses were carried out. The focus of these secondary data analyses was to distill any ASD related data from larger generic data sets. The findings are reported for each data set and follow a lifespan perspective, i.e., data related to children is reported first before data related to adults.
Key findings:
Autism Prevalence:
Of children born in 2000 in the UK,
• 0.9% (1:109) were reported to have ASD, when they were 5-year old in 2005;
• 1.8% (1:55) were reported to have ASD, when they were 7-years old in 2007;
• 3.5% (1:29) were reported to have ASD, when they were 11-year old in 2011.
In mainstream schools in Northern Ireland
• 1.2% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2006/07;
• 1.8% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2012/13.

Economic Deprivation:
• Families of children with autism (CWA) were 9%-18% worse off per week than families of children not on the autism spectrum (COA).
• Between 2006-2013 deprivation of CWA compared to COA nearly doubled as measured by eligibility for free school meals (from near 20 % to 37%)
• In 2006, CWA and COA experienced similar levels of deprivation (approx. 20%), by 2013, a considerable deprivation gap had developed, with CWA experienced 6% more deprivation than COA.
• Nearly 1/3 of primary school CWA lived in the most deprived areas in Northern Ireland.
• Nearly ½ of children with Asperger’s Syndrome who attended special school lived in the most deprived areas.

Unemployment:
• Mothers of CWA were 6% less likely to be employed than mothers of COA.
• Mothers of CWA earned 35%-56% less than mothers of COA.
• CWA were 9% less likely to live in two income families than COA.

Health:
• Pre-diagnosis, CWA were more likely than COA to have physical health problems, including walking on level ground, speech and language, hearing, eyesight, and asthma.
• Aged 3 years of age CWA experienced poorer emotional and social health than COA, this difference increased significantly by the time they were 7 years of age.
• Mothers of young CWA had lower levels of life satisfaction and poorer mental health than mothers of young COA.
Education:
• In mainstream education, children with ASD aged 11-16 years reported less satisfaction with their social relationships than COA.
• Younger children with ASD (aged 5 and 7 years) were less likely to enjoy school, were bullied more, and were more reluctant to attend school than COA.
• CWA attended school 2-3 weeks less than COA .
• Children with Asperger’s Syndrome in special schools missed the equivalent of 8-13 school days more than children with Asperger’s Syndrome in mainstream schools.
• Children with ASD attending mainstream schooling were less likely to gain 5+ GCSEs A*-C or subsequently attend university.



Further and Higher Education:
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Further Education (FE), from 0% to 0.7%.
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Higher Education (HE), from 0.28% to 0.45%.
• Students with ASD chose to study different subjects than students without ASD, although other factors, e.g., gender, age etc. may have played a part in subject selection.
• Students with ASD from NI were more likely than students without ASD to choose Northern Irish HE Institutions rather than study outside NI.

Participation in adult life and employment:
• A small number of adults with ASD (n=99) have benefitted from DES employment provision over the past 12 years.
• It is unknown how many adults with ASD have received employment support elsewhere (e.g. Steps to Work).
•
Awareness and Attitudes in the General Population:
• In both the 2003 and 2012 NI Life and Times Survey (NILTS), NI public reported positive attitudes towards the inclusion of children with ASD in mainstream education (see also BASE Project Vol. 2).

Gap Analysis Recommendations:
This was the first comprehensive secondary analysis with regards to ASD of existing large-scale data sets in Northern Ireland. Data gaps were identified and further replications would benefit from the following data inclusion:
• ASD should be recorded routinely in the following datasets:
o Census;
o Northern Ireland Survey of Activity Limitation (NISALD);
o Training for Success/Steps to work; Steps to Success;
o Travel survey;
o Hate crime; and
o Labour Force Survey.
• Data should be collected on the destinations/qualifications of special school leavers.
• NILT Survey autism module should be repeated in 5 years time (2017) (see full report of 1st NILT Survey autism module 2012 in BASE Project Report Volume 2).
• General public attitudes and awareness should be assessed for children and young people, using the Young Life and Times Survey (YLT) and the Kids Life and Times Survey (KLT); (this work is underway, Dillenburger, McKerr, Schubolz, & Lloyd, 2014-2015).
 

Expansion of pulse responses from temporal analysis of products (TAP) pulse responses for more accurate data analysis

TAP pulse responses are normally analysed using moments, which are integrals of the full TAP pulse response. However, in some cases the entire pulse response may not be recorded due to technical reasons, thereby compromising any data analysis due to moments generated from incomplete pulse responses. The current work discloses the development of a function which mathematically expands the tail of a TAP pulse response, so that the TAP data analysis can be accurately conducted. This newly developed analysis method has been applied to the oxidative dehydrogenation of ethane over Co–Cr–Sn–WOx/α-Al2O3 and Co–Cr–Sn–WOx/α-Al2O3 catalysts as a case study.

RMA with quantile normalization mixes biological signals between different sample groups in microarray data analysis

Quantile normalization (QN) is a technique for microarray data processing and is the default normalization method in the Robust Multi-array Average (RMA) procedure, which was primarily designed for analysing gene expression data from Affymetrix arrays. Given the abundance of Affymetrix microarrays and the popularity of the RMA method, it is crucially important that the normalization procedure is applied appropriately. In this study we carried out simulation experiments and also analysed real microarray data to investigate the suitability of RMA when it is applied to dataset with different groups of biological samples. From our experiments, we showed that RMA with QN does not preserve the biological signal included in each group, but rather it would mix the signals between the groups. We also showed that the Median Polish method in the summarization step of RMA has similar mixing effect. RMA is one of the most widely used methods in microarray data processing and has been applied to a vast volume of data in biomedical research. The problematic behaviour of this method suggests that previous studies employing RMA could have been misadvised or adversely affected. Therefore we think it is crucially important that the research community recognizes the issue and starts to address it. The two core elements of the RMA method, quantile normalization and Median Polish, both have the undesirable effects of mixing biological signals between different sample groups, which can be detrimental to drawing valid biological conclusions and to any subsequent analyses. Based on the evidence presented here and that in the literature, we recommend exercising caution when using RMA as a method of processing microarray gene expression data, particularly in situations where there are likely to be unknown subgroups of samples.

Compositional Data Analysis in Forensic Geoscience

Statistics are regularly used to make some form of comparison between trace evidence or deploy the exclusionary principle (Morgan and Bull, 2007) in forensic investigations. Trace evidence are routinely the results of particle size, chemical or modal analyses and as such constitute compositional data. The issue is that compositional data including percentages, parts per million etc. only carry relative information. This may be problematic where a comparison of percentages and other constraint/closed data is deemed a statistically valid and appropriate way to present trace evidence in a court of law. Notwithstanding an awareness of the existence of the constant sum problem since the seminal works of Pearson (1896) and Chayes (1960) and the introduction of the application of log-ratio techniques (Aitchison, 1986; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Egozcue, 2001; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Buccianti, 2011; Tolosana-Delgado and van den Boogaart, 2013) the problem that a constant sum destroys the potential independence of variances and covariances required for correlation regression analysis and empirical multivariate methods (principal component analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, canonical correlation) is all too often not acknowledged in the statistical treatment of trace evidence. Yet the need for a robust treatment of forensic trace evidence analyses is obvious. This research examines the issues and potential pitfalls for forensic investigators if the constant sum constraint is ignored in the analysis and presentation of forensic trace evidence. Forensic case studies involving particle size and mineral analyses as trace evidence are used to demonstrate the use of a compositional data approach using a centred log-ratio (clr) transformation and multivariate statistical analyses.

Compositional data analysis of Holocene sediments from the West Bengal Sundarbans, India: Geochemical proxies for grain-size variability in a delta environment

This paper is part of a special issue of Applied Geochemistry focusing on reliable applications of compositional multivariate statistical methods. This study outlines the application of compositional data analysis (CoDa) to calibration of geochemical data and multivariate statistical modelling of geochemistry and grain-size data from a set of Holocene sedimentary cores from the Ganges-Brahmaputra (G-B) delta. Over the last two decades, understanding near-continuous records of sedimentary sequences has required the use of core-scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometry, for both terrestrial and marine sedimentary sequences. Initial XRF data are generally unusable in ‘raw-format’, requiring data processing in order to remove instrument bias, as well as informed sequence interpretation. The applicability of these conventional calibration equations to core-scanning XRF data are further limited by the constraints posed by unknown measurement geometry and specimen homogeneity, as well as matrix effects. Log-ratio based calibration schemes have been developed and applied to clastic sedimentary sequences focusing mainly on energy dispersive-XRF (ED-XRF) core-scanning. This study has applied high resolution core-scanning XRF to Holocene sedimentary sequences from the tidal-dominated Indian Sundarbans, (Ganges-Brahmaputra delta plain). The Log-Ratio Calibration Equation (LRCE) was applied to a sub-set of core-scan and conventional ED-XRF data to quantify elemental composition. This provides a robust calibration scheme using reduced major axis regression of log-ratio transformed geochemical data. Through partial least squares (PLS) modelling of geochemical and grain-size data, it is possible to derive robust proxy information for the Sundarbans depositional environment. The application of these techniques to Holocene sedimentary data offers an improved methodological framework for unravelling Holocene sedimentation patterns.

Re-analysis of microarray data reveals insights into altered transcriptional activity of TH17 and TReg signalling in psoriasis

Identifying differential expression of genes in psoriatic and healthy skin by microarray data analysis is a key approach to understand the pathogenesis of psoriasis. Analysis of more than one dataset to identify genes commonly upregulated reduces the likelihood of false positives and narrows down the possible signature genes. Genes controlling the critical balance between T helper 17 and regulatory T cells are of special interest in psoriasis. Our objectives were to identify genes that are consistently upregulated in lesional skin from three published microarray datasets. We carried out a reanalysis of gene expression data extracted from three experiments on samples from psoriatic and nonlesional skin using the same stringency threshold and software and further compared the expression levels of 92 genes related to the T helper 17 and regulatory T cell signaling pathways. We found 73 probe sets representing 57 genes commonly upregulated in lesional skin from all datasets. These included 26 probe sets representing 20 genes that have no previous link to the etiopathogenesis of psoriasis. These genes may represent novel therapeutic targets and surely need more rigorous experimental testing to be validated. Our analysis also identified 12 of 92 genes known to be related to the T helper 17 and regulatory T cell signaling pathways, and these were found to be differentially expressed in the lesional skin samples.

Bayesian network data imputation with application to survival tree analysis

Retrospective clinical datasets are often characterized by a relatively small sample size and many missing data. In this case, a common way for handling the missingness consists in discarding from the analysis patients with missing covariates, further reducing the sample size. Alternatively, if the mechanism that generated the missing allows, incomplete data can be imputed on the basis of the observed data, avoiding the reduction of the sample size and allowing methods to deal with complete data later on. Moreover, methodologies for data imputation might depend on the particular purpose and might achieve better results by considering specific characteristics of the domain. The problem of missing data treatment is studied in the context of survival tree analysis for the estimation of a prognostic patient stratification. Survival tree methods usually address this problem by using surrogate splits, that is, splitting rules that use other variables yielding similar results to the original ones. Instead, our methodology consists in modeling the dependencies among the clinical variables with a Bayesian network, which is then used to perform data imputation, thus allowing the survival tree to be applied on the completed dataset. The Bayesian network is directly learned from the incomplete data using a structural expectation–maximization (EM) procedure in which the maximization step is performed with an exact anytime method, so that the only source of approximation is due to the EM formulation itself. On both simulated and real data, our proposed methodology usually outperformed several existing methods for data imputation and the imputation so obtained improved the stratification estimated by the survival tree (especially with respect to using surrogate splits).

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Multivariate analysis of regional-scale geochemical data for environmental monitoring

A compositional multivariate approach is used to analyse regional scale soil geochemical data obtained as part of the Tellus Project generated by the Geological Survey Northern Ireland (GSNI). The multi-element total concentration data presented comprise XRF analyses of 6862 rural soil samples collected at 20cm depths on a non-aligned grid at one site per 2 km2. Censored data were imputed using published detection limits. Using these imputed values for 46 elements (including LOI), each soil sample site was assigned to the regional geology map provided by GSNI initially using the dominant lithology for the map polygon. Northern Ireland includes a diversity of geology representing a stratigraphic record from the Mesoproterozoic, up to and including the Palaeogene. However, the advance of ice sheets and their meltwaters over the last 100,000 years has left at least 80% of the bedrock covered by superficial deposits, including glacial till and post-glacial alluvium and peat. The question is to what extent the soil geochemistry reflects the underlying geology or superficial deposits. To address this, the geochemical data were transformed using centered log ratios (clr) to observe the requirements of compositional data analysis and avoid closure issues. Following this, compositional multivariate techniques including compositional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and minimum/maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis method were used to determine the influence of underlying geology on the soil geochemistry signature. PCA showed that 72% of the variation was determined by the first four principal components (PC’s) implying “significant” structure in the data. Analysis of variance showed that only 10 PC’s were necessary to classify the soil geochemical data. To consider an improvement over PCA that uses the spatial relationships of the data, a classification based on MAF analysis was undertaken using the first 6 dominant factors. Understanding the relationship between soil geochemistry and superficial deposits is important for environmental monitoring of fragile ecosystems such as peat. To explore whether peat cover could be predicted from the classification, the lithology designation was adapted to include the presence of peat, based on GSNI superficial deposit polygons and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) undertaken. Prediction accuracy for LDA classification improved from 60.98% based on PCA using 10 principal components to 64.73% using MAF based on the 6 most dominant factors. The misclassification of peat may reflect degradation of peat covered areas since the creation of superficial deposit classification. Further work will examine the influence of underlying lithologies on elemental concentrations in peat composition and the effect of this in classification analysis.

A Longitudinal and Contextual Analysis of Media Representation of Business Ethics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of media representation of business ethics within 62 international newspapers to explore the longitudinal and contextual evolution of business ethics and associated terminology. Levels of coverage and contextual analysis of the content of the articles are used as surrogate measures of the penetration of business ethics concepts into society. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a text mining application based on two samples of data: analysis of 62 national newspapers in 21 countries from 1990 to 2008; analysis of the content of two samples of articles containing the term business ethics (comprised of 100 newspaper articles spread over an 18-year period from a sample of US and UK newspapers). Findings – The paper demonstrates increased coverage of sustainability topics within the media over the last 18 years associated with events such as the Rio Summit. Whilst some peaks are associated with business ethics scandals, the overall coverage remains steady. There is little apparent use in the media of concepts such as corporate citizenship. The academic community and company ethical codes appear to adopt a wider definition of business ethics more akin to that associated with sustainability, in comparison with the focus taken by the media, especially in the USA. Coverage demonstrates clear regional bias and contextual analysis of the articles in the UK and USA also shows interesting parallels and divergences in the media representation of business ethics. Originality/value – A promising avenue to explore how the evolution of sustainability issues including business ethics can be tracked within a societal context.