System oriented neural networks - Problem formulation, methodology and application

A novel methodology is proposed for the development of neural network models for complex engineering systems exhibiting nonlinearity. This method performs neural network modeling by first establishing some fundamental nonlinear functions from a priori engineering knowledge, which are then constructed and coded into appropriate chromosome representations. Given a suitable fitness function, using evolutionary approaches such as genetic algorithms, a population of chromosomes evolves for a certain number of generations to finally produce a neural network model best fitting the system data. The objective is to improve the transparency of the neural networks, i.e. to produce physically meaningful

Turbo channel estimation and equalisation for a superposition-based cooperative system

This study investigates the superposition-based cooperative transmission system. In this system, a key point is for the relay node to detect data transmitted from the source node. This issued was less considered in the existing literature as the channel is usually assumed to be flat fading and a priori known. In practice, however, the channel is not only a priori unknown but subject to frequency selective fading. Channel estimation is thus necessary. Of particular interest is the channel estimation at the relay node which imposes extra requirement for the system resources. The authors propose a novel turbo least-square channel estimator by exploring the superposition structure of the transmission data. The proposed channel estimator not only requires no pilot symbols but also has significantly better performance than the classic approach. The soft-in-soft-out minimum mean square error (MMSE) equaliser is also re-derived to match the superimposed data structure. Finally computer simulation results are shown to verify the proposed algorithm.

Bit error rate performance enhancement of a retrodirective array over a conventional fixed beam array in a dynamic multipath environment

In this paper, we provide experimental evidence to show that enhanced bit error rate (BER) performance is possible using a retrodirective array operating in a dynamically varying multipath environment. The operation of such a system will be compared to that obtained by a conventional nonretrodirective array. The ability of the array to recover amplitude shift keyed encoded data transmitted from a remote location whose position is not known a priori is described. In addition, its ability to retransmit data inserted at the retrodirective array back to a spatially remote beacon location whose position is also not known beforehand is also demonstrated. Comparison with an equivalent conventional fixed beam antenna array utilizing an identical radiating aperture arrangement to that of the retrodirective array are given. These show that the retrodirective array can effectively exploit the presence of time varying multipath in order to give significant reductions in BER over what can be otherwise achieved. Additionally, the retrodirective system is shown to be able to deliver low BER regardless of whether line of sight is present or absent.

Learning design contingent valuation (LDCV): NOAA guidelines, preference learning and coherent arbitrariness

We extend the contingent valuation (CV) method to test three differing conceptions of individuals' preferences as either (i) a-priori well-formed or readily divined and revealed through a single dichotomous choice question (as per the NOAA CV guidelines [K. Arrow, R. Solow, P.R. Portney, E.E. Learner, R. Radner, H. Schuman, Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation, Fed. Reg. 58 (1993) 4601-4614]); (ii) learned or 'discovered' through a process of repetition and experience [J.A. List, Does market experience eliminate market anomalies? Q. J. Econ. (2003) 41-72; C.R. Plott, Rational individual behaviour in markets and social choice processes: the discovered preference hypothesis, in: K. Arrow, E. Colombatto, M. Perleman, C. Schmidt (Eds.), Rational Foundations of Economic Behaviour, Macmillan, London, St. Martin's, New York, 1996, pp. 225-250]; (iii) internally coherent but strongly influenced by some initial arbitrary anchor [D. Ariely, G. Loewenstein, D. Prelec, 'Coherent arbitrariness': stable demand curves without stable preferences, Q. J. Econ. 118(l) (2003) 73-105]. Findings reject both the first and last of these conceptions in favour of a model in which preferences converge towards standard expectations through a process of repetition and learning. In doing so, we show that such a 'learning design CV method overturns the 'stylised facts' of bias and anchoring within the double bound dichotomous choice elicitation format. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of Advertising Wars

Comparative advertising by one brand against another showcases its merits versus the demerits of the other. In a two-stage game with finitely many firms, firms decide first how much to advertise against whom. In the second stage, given the advertising configuration, firms compete as Cournot oligopolists. In the symmetric case, equilibrium advertising constitutes a clear welfare loss. In the asymmetric case, depending on parameter values, a variety of outcomes are possible in equilibrium. An a priori disadvantaged firm (in terms of advertising costs or advertising effectiveness) may advertise more. Advertising can affect firms that are not advertisers or targets themselves.

Use of weaning protocols for reducing duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill adult patients: Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective To investigate the effects of weaning protocols on the total duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality, adverse events, quality of life, weaning duration, and length of stay in the intensive care unit and hospital.

Design Systematic review.

Data sources Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, ISI Web of Science, ISI Conference Proceedings, Cambridge Scientific Abstracts, and reference lists of articles. We did not apply language restrictions.

Review methods We included randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials of weaning from mechanical ventilation with and without protocols in critically ill adults.

Data selection Three authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. A priori subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed. We contacted study authors for additional information.

Results Eleven trials that included 1971 patients met the inclusion criteria. Compared with usual care, the geometric mean duration of mechanical ventilation in the weaning protocol group was reduced by 25% (95% confidence interval 9% to 39%, P=0.006; 10 trials); the duration of weaning was reduced by 78% (31% to 93%, P=0.009; six trials); and stay in the intensive care unit length by 10% (2% to 19%, P=0.02; eight trials). There was significant heterogeneity among studies for total duration of mechanical ventilation (I(2)=76%, P

Conclusion There is evidence of a reduction in the duration of mechanical ventilation, weaning, and stay in the intensive care unit when standardised weaning protocols are used, but there is significant heterogeneity among studies and an insufficient number of studies to investigate the source of this heterogeneity. Some studies suggest that organisational context could influence outcomes, but this could not be evaluated as it was outside the scope of this review.

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Childhood Trauma and Hippocampal and Amygdalar Volumes in First-Episode Psychosis

Objective: A history of childhood trauma is common in individuals who later develop psychosis. Similar neuroanatomical abnormalities are observed in people who have been exposed to childhood trauma and people with psychosis. However, the relationship between childhood trauma and such abnormalities in psychosis has not been investigated. This study aimed to explore the association between the experience of childhood trauma and hippocampal and amygdalar volumes in a first-episode psychosis (FEP) population. Methods: The study employed an observational retrospective design. Twenty-one individuals, who had previously undergone magnetic resonance imaging procedures as part of the longitudinal Northern Ireland First-Episode Psychosis Study, completed measures assessing traumatic experiences and were included in the analysis. Data were subject to correlation analyses (rand rob). Potential confounding variables (age at FEP and delay to scan from recruitment) were selected a priori for inclusion in multiple regression analyses. Results: There was a high prevalence of lifetime (95%) and childhood (76%) trauma in the sample. The experience of childhood trauma was a significant predictor of left hippocampal volume, although age at FEP also significantly contributed to this model. There was no significant association between predictor variables and right hippocampal volume. The experience of childhood trauma was a significant predictor of right and total amygdalar volumes and the hippocampal/amygdalar complex volume as a whole. Conclusions: The findings indicate that childhood trauma is associated with neuroanatomical measures in FEP. Future research controlling for childhood traumatic experiences may contribute to explaining brain morphology in people with psychosis.

Incidence and risk factors for pulmonary exacerbation treatment failures in cystic fibrosis patients chronically infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Background: Pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) are responsible for much of the morbidity and mortality associated with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, there is a paucity of data on outcomes in CF PEx and factors influencing outcomes.

Methods: We reviewed all PEx in patients infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa treated with parenteral antibiotics over 4 years at our center. Treatment failures were categorized a priori as those PEx requiring antibiotic regimen change, prolongation of therapy > 20 days because of failure to respond, an early recurrent event within < 45 days, or failure to recover lung function to > 90% of baseline FEV1.

Results: A total of 101 patients were followed for 452 PEx. Treatment failures were observed in 125 (28%) of PEx; antibiotic regimen change was observed in 27 (6%), prolongation of therapy in 29 (6%), early recurrent events in 63 (14%), and failure to recover lung function to > 90% of baseline FEV1 in 66 (15%). Demographic factors associated with one or more treatment failures per year included advanced airways disease, use of enteric feeds, CF-related diabetes, and CF liver disease but did not include female sex or F508del homozygosity. Increased treatment failure risk was associated with lower admission FEV1 and increased markers of inflammation. At therapeutic completion, increased inflammatory markers correlated with treatment failure. Failure rates decreased with increasing number of active antimicrobial agents used based on in vitro susceptibility (zero, 28/65 [43%]; one, 38/140 [27%]; two, 59/245 [24%]; three, 0/2 [0%]; P = .02).

Conclusions: One-fourth of PEx fail to respond adequately to initial management. Patient demographic and episode-specific clinical information can be used to identify individuals at increased risk of initial management failure.

Automated versus non-automated weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation for critically ill adults and children (Review)

Abstract
Background: Automated closed loop systems may improve adaptation of the mechanical support to a patient's ventilatory needs and
facilitate systematic and early recognition of their ability to breathe spontaneously and the potential for discontinuation of
ventilation.

Objectives: To compare the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation for critically ill ventilated adults and children when managed
with automated closed loop systems versus non-automated strategies. Secondary objectives were to determine differences
in duration of ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, and adverse events.

Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 2); MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1948 to August 2011); EMBASE (OvidSP) (1980 to August 2011); CINAHL (EBSCOhost) (1982 to August 2011); and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). In addition we received and reviewed auto-alerts for our search strategy in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL up to August 2012. Relevant published reviews were sought using the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA Database). We also searched the Web of Science Proceedings; conference proceedings; trial registration websites; and reference lists of relevant articles.

Selection criteria: We included randomized controlled trials comparing automated closed loop ventilator applications to non-automated weaning
strategies including non-protocolized usual care and protocolized weaning in patients over four weeks of age receiving invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU).

Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed risk of bias. We combined data into forest plots using random-effects modelling. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted according to a priori criteria.

Main results: Pooled data from 15 eligible trials (14 adult, one paediatric) totalling 1173 participants (1143 adults, 30 children) indicated that automated closed loop systems reduced the geometric mean duration of weaning by 32% (95% CI 19% to 46%, P =0.002), however heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 89%, P < 0.00001). Reduced weaning duration was found with mixed or
medical ICU populations (43%, 95% CI 8% to 65%, P = 0.02) and Smartcare/PS™ (31%, 95% CI 7% to 49%, P = 0.02) but not in surgical populations or using other systems. Automated closed loop systems reduced the duration of ventilation (17%, 95% CI 8% to 26%) and ICU length of stay (LOS) (11%, 95% CI 0% to 21%). There was no difference in mortality rates or hospital LOS. Overall the quality of evidence was high with the majority of trials rated as low risk.

Authors' conclusions: Automated closed loop systems may result in reduced duration of weaning, ventilation, and ICU stay. Reductions are more
likely to occur in mixed or medical ICU populations. Due to the lack of, or limited, evidence on automated systems other than Smartcare/PS™ and Adaptive Support Ventilation no conclusions can be drawn regarding their influence on these outcomes. Due to substantial heterogeneity in trials there is a need for an adequately powered, high quality, multi-centre randomized
controlled trial in adults that excludes 'simple to wean' patients. There is a pressing need for further technological development and research in the paediatric population.

Dietary patterns and smoking in Northern Irish men: a population at High risk of coronary heart disease

This study evaluated dietary habits of Northern Irish men who are at high risk of cardiovascular disease, stratified as never-, ex-, moderate-, or heavy-smokers. Participants were male volunteers (30 - 49 years) from a single workforce in Belfast (n = 765). Dietary information was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. For 'a priori' diet scores, never- and ex-smokers had a significantly higher fruit and vegetable score, Mediterranean diet score, and alternative Mediterranean diet score than moderate or heavy-smokers (all p

Dietary patterns and bone mineral status in young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Studies of individual nutrients or foods have revealed much about dietary influences on bone. Multiple food or nutrient approaches, such as dietary pattern analysis, could offer further insight but research is limited and largely confined to older adults. We examined the relationship between dietary patterns, obtained by a posteriori and a priori methods, and bone mineral status (BMS; collective term for bone mineral content (BMC) and bone mineral density (BMD)) in young adults (20-25 years; n 489). Diet was assessed by 7 d diet history and BMD and BMC were determined at the lumbar spine and femoral neck (FN). A posteriori dietary patterns were derived using principal component analysis (PCA) and three a priori dietary quality scores were applied (dietary diversity score (DDS), nutritional risk score and Mediterranean diet score). For the PCA-derived dietary patterns, women in the top compared to the bottom fifth of the 'Nuts and Meat' pattern had greater FN BMD by 0.074 g/cm(2) (P=0.049) and FN BMC by 0.40 g (P=0.034) after adjustment for confounders. Similarly, men in the top compared to the bottom fifth of the 'Refined' pattern had lower FN BMC by 0.41 g (P-0.049). For the a priori DDS, women in the top compared to the bottom third had lower FN BMD by 0.05 g/cm(2) after adjustments (P=0.052), but no other relationships with BMS were identified. In conclusion, adherence to a 'Nuts and Meat' dietary pattern may be associated with greater BMS in young women and a 'Refined' dietary pattern may be detrimental for bone health in young men.

Non-parametric nonlinear system identification: A data-driven orthogonal basis function approach

In this paper, a data driven orthogonal basis function approach is proposed for non-parametric FIR nonlinear system identification. The basis functions are not fixed a priori and match the structure of the unknown system automatically. This eliminates the problem of blindly choosing the basis functions without a priori structural information. Further, based on the proposed basis functions, approaches are proposed for model order determination and regressor selection along with their theoretical justifications. © 2008 IEEE.

A Novel Method to Enable Trade-offs Across the Whole Product Life of an Aircraft Using Value Driven Design

The increasing need to understand complex products and systems with long life spans, presents a significant challenge to designers who increasingly require a broader understanding of the operational aspects of the system. This demands an evolution in current design practice, as designers are often constrained to provide a subsystem solution without full knowledge of the global system operation. Recently there has been a push to consider value centric approaches which should facilitate better or more rapid convergence to design solutions with predictable completion schedules. Value Driven Design is one such approach, in which value is used as the system top level objective function. This provides a broader view of the system and enables all sub-systems and components to be designed with a view to the effect on project value. It also has the capacity to include value expressions for more qualitative aspects, such as environmental impact. However, application of the method to date has been restricted to comparing value in a programme where the lifespan is fixed and known a priori. This paper takes a novel view of value driven design through the surplus value objective function, and shows how it can be used to identify key sensitivities to guide designers in design trade-off decisions. By considering a new time based approach it can be used to identify optimum programme life-span and hence allow trade-offs over the whole product life.

Element-Free Galerkin modelling of composite damage

Delamination and matrix cracking are routine damage mechanisms, observed by post-mortem analysis of laminated structures containing geometrical features such as notches or bolts. Current finite element tools cannot explicitly model an intralaminar matrix microcrack, except if the location of the damage is specified a priori. In this work, a meshless technique, the Element-Free Galerkin (EFG) method, is utilized for the first time to simulate delamination (interlaminar) and intralaminar matrix microcracking in composite laminates.