Utility in Willingness to Pay Space: A Tool to Address Confounding Random Scale Effects in Destination Choice to the Alps

We compare two approaches for estimating the distribution of consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) in discrete choice models. The usual procedure is to estimate the distribution of the utility coefficients and then derive the distribution of WTP, which is the ratio of coefficients. The alternative is to estimate the distribution of WTP directly. We apply both approaches to data on site choice in the Alps. We find that the alternative approach fits the data better, reduces the incidence of exceedingly large estimated WTP values, and provides the analyst with greater control in specifying and testing the distribution of WTP. © 2008 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

Interpreting the near-infrared spectra of the 'golden standard' Type Ia supernova 2005cf

We present nine near-infrared (NIR) spectra of supernova (SN) 2005cf at epochs from -10 to +42d with respect to B-band maximum, complementing the existing excellent data sets available for this prototypical Type Ia SN at other wavelengths. The spectra show a time evolution and spectral features characteristic of normal Type Ia SNe, as illustrated by a comparison with SNe 1999ee, 2002bo and 2003du. The broad-band spectral energy distribution (SED) of SN 2005cf is studied in combined ultraviolet (UV), optical and NIR spectra at five epochs between ~8d before and ~10d after maximum light. We also present synthetic spectra of the hydrodynamic explosion model W7, which reproduce the key properties of SN 2005cf not only at UV-optical as previously reported, but also at NIR wavelengths. From the radiative-transfer calculations we infer that fluorescence is the driving mechanism that shapes the SED of SNe Ia. In particular, the NIR part of the spectrum is almost devoid of absorption features, and instead dominated by fluorescent emission of both iron-group material and intermediate-mass elements at pre-maximum epochs, and pure iron-group material after maximum light. A single P-Cygni feature of Mgii at early epochs and a series of relatively unblended Coii lines at late phases allow us to constrain the regions of the ejecta in which the respective elements are abundant. © 2012 The Authors Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2012 RAS.

School entry age outcomes for infants with birth weight ≤ 800 grams

To evaluate the mortality and long-term morbidity rates of extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs).

Single-laboratory validation of a multiplex flow cytometric immunoassay for the simultaneous detection of coccidiostats in eggs and feed

Coccidiostats are authorized in the European Union (EU) to be used as poultry feed additives. Maximum (residue) levels (M(R)Ls) have been set within the EU for consumer and animal protection against unintended carry-over, and monitoring is compulsory. This paper describes the single-laboratory validation of a previously developed multiplex flow cytometric immunoassay (FCIA) as screening method for coccidiostats in eggs and feed and provides and compares different approaches for the calculation of the cut-off levels which are not described in detail within Commission Decision 2002/657/EC. Comparable results were obtained between the statistical (reference) approach and the rapid approaches. With the most rapid approach, the cut-off levels for narasin/salinomycin, lasalocid, diclazuril, nicarbazin (DNC) and monensin in egg, calculated as percentages of inhibition (%B/B0), were 60, 32, 76, 80 and 84, respectively. In feed, the cut-off levels for narasin/salinomycin, lasalocid, nicarbazin (DNC) and monensin were 70, 64, 72 and 78, respectively, and could not be determined for diclazuril. For all analytes, except for diclazuril in feed, the rate of false positives (false non-compliant) in blank samples was lower than 1 %, and the rate of false negatives (false compliant) at the M(R)Ls was below 5 %. Additionally, very good correlations (r ranging from 0.994 to 0.9994) were observed between two different analysers, a sophisticated flow cytometer (FlexMAP 3D(®)) and a more cost-efficient and transportable planar imaging detector (MAGPIX(®)), hence demonstrating adequate transferability.

The feasibility of using near infrared and Raman spectroscopic techniques to detect fraudulent adulteration of chili powders with Sudan dye

Chili powder is a globally traded commodity which has been found to be adulterated with Sudan dyes from 2003 onwards. In this study, chili powders were adulterated with varying quantities of Sudan I dye (0.1-5%) and spectra were generated using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and Raman
spectroscopy (on a spectrometer with a sample compartment modified as part of the study). Chemometrics were applied to the spectral data to produce quantitative and qualitative calibration models and prediction statistics. For the quantitative models coefficients of determination (R2) were found to be
0.891-0.994 depending on which spectral data (NIRS/Raman) was processed, the mathematical algorithm used and the data pre-processing applied. The corresponding values for the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) were found to be 0.208-0.851%
and 0.141-0.831% respectively, once again depending on the spectral data and the chemometric treatment applied to the data. Indications are that the NIR spectroscopy based models are superior to the models produced from Raman spectral data based on a comparison of the values of the chemometric
parameters. The limit of detection (LOD) based on analysis of 20 blank chili powders against each calibration model gave 0.25% and 0.88% for the NIR and Raman data, respectively. In addition, adopting a qualitative approach with the spectral data and applying PCA or PLS-DA, it was possible to discriminate
between adulterated chili powders from non-adulterated chili powders.

Large panel-survey data demonstrated country-level and ethnic minority variation in consent for health record linkage

Objectives
To investigate individual, household and country variation in consent to health record linkage.

Study Design and Setting
Data from 50,994 individuals aged 16-74 years recruited to wave 1 of a large UK general purpose household survey (January 2009 – December 2010) were analysed using multi-level logistic regression models.

Results
Overall, 70.7% of respondents consented to record linkage. Younger age, marriage, tenure, car ownership and education were all significantly associated with consent, though there was little deviation from 70% in subgroups defined by these variables. There were small increases in consent rates in individuals with poor health when defined by self-reported long term limiting illness (adjusted OR 1.11; 95%CIs 1.06, 1.16), less so when defined by General Health Questionnaire score (adjusted OR=1.05; 95%CIs 1.00, 1.10), but the range in absolute consent rates between categories was generally less than 10%. Larger differences were observed for those of non-white ethnicity who were 38% less likely to consent (adjusted OR 0.62; 95%CIs 0.59, 0.66). Consent was higher in Scotland than England (adjusted OR 1.17; 95%CIs 1.06, 1.29) but lower in Northern Ireland (adjusted OR 0.56; 95%CIs 0.50, 0.63).

Conclusion
The modest overall level of systematic bias in consent to record linkage provides reassurance for record linkage potential in general purpose household surveys. However, the low consent rates amongst non-white ethnic minority survey respondents will further compound their low survey participation rates. The reason for the country-level variation requires further study.

A closer look at Carver and White's BIS/BAS scales: Factor analysis and age group differences

The Behavioural Inhibition and Behavioural Activation System (BIS/BAS) scales were developed by Carver and White (1994) and comprise four scales which measure individual differences in personality (Gray 1982, 1991). More recent modifications, namely the five-factor model derived from Gray and McNaughton's (2000) revised Reward Sensitivity Theory (RST) suggests that Anxiety and Fear are separable components of inhibition. This study employed exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses on the scales in order to test whether the four or five-factor model was the better fit in a sample of 994 participants aged 11–30 years. Consistent with RST, superior model fit was shown for the five-factor model with all variables correlated. Significant age effects were observed for BIS Fear and BIS Anxiety, with scores peaking in middle and late adolescence respectively. The BAS subscales showed differential effects of age group. Significantly increasing scores from early to mid and from mid to late adolescence were found for Drive, but the effect of age on Fun Seeking and Reward Responsiveness was not significant.

Effectiveness of Community versus Hospital Eye Service follow-up for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration with quiescent disease (ECHoES): a virtual non-inferiority trial

OBJECTIVES: To compare the ability of ophthalmologists versus optometrists to correctly classify retinal lesions due to neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD).

DESIGN: Randomised balanced incomplete block trial. Optometrists in the community and ophthalmologists in the Hospital Eye Service classified lesions from vignettes comprising clinical information, colour fundus photographs and optical coherence tomographic images. Participants' classifications were validated against experts' classifications (reference standard).

SETTING: Internet-based application.

PARTICIPANTS: Ophthalmologists with experience in the age-related macular degeneration service; fully qualified optometrists not participating in nAMD shared care.

INTERVENTIONS: The trial emulated a conventional trial comparing optometrists' and ophthalmologists' decision-making, but vignettes, not patients, were assessed. Therefore, there were no interventions and the trial was virtual. Participants received training before assessing vignettes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome-correct classification of the activity status of a lesion based on a vignette, compared with a reference standard. Secondary outcomes-potentially sight-threatening errors, judgements about specific lesion components and participants' confidence in their decisions.

RESULTS: In total, 155 participants registered for the trial; 96 (48 in each group) completed all assessments and formed the analysis population. Optometrists and ophthalmologists achieved 1702/2016 (84.4%) and 1722/2016 (85.4%) correct classifications, respectively (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.25; p=0.543). Optometrists' decision-making was non-inferior to ophthalmologists' with respect to the prespecified limit of 10% absolute difference (0.298 on the odds scale). Optometrists and ophthalmologists made similar numbers of sight-threatening errors (57/994 (5.7%) vs 62/994 (6.2%), OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.57; p=0.789). Ophthalmologists assessed lesion components as present less often than optometrists and were more confident about their classifications than optometrists.

CONCLUSIONS: Optometrists' ability to make nAMD retreatment decisions from vignettes is not inferior to ophthalmologists' ability. Shared care with optometrists monitoring quiescent nAMD lesions has the potential to reduce workload in hospitals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN07479761; pre-results registration.