ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Folkbiology doesn’t come from Folkpsychology: evidence from Yukatek Maya in cross-cultural perspective

Nearly all psychological research on basic cognitive processes of category formation and reasoning uses sample populations associated with large research institutions in technologically-advanced societies. Lopsided attention to a select participant pool risks biasing interpretation, no matter how large the sample or how statistically reliable the results. The experiments in this article address this limitation. Earlier research with urban-USA children suggests that biological concepts are (1) thoroughly enmeshed with their notions of naive psychology, and (2) strikingly human-centered. Thus, if children are to develop a causally appropriate model of biology, in which humans are seen as simply one animal among many, they must undergo fundamental conceptual change. Such change supposedly occurs between 7 and 10 years of age, when the human-centered view is discarded. The experiments reported here with Yukatek Maya speakers challenge the empirical generality and theoretical importance of these claims. Part 1 shows that young Maya children do not anthropocentrically interpret the biological world. The anthropocentric bias of American children appears to owe to a lack of cultural familiarity with non-human biological kinds, not to initial causal understanding of folkbiology as such. Part 2 shows that by age of 4-5 (the earliest age tested in this regard) Yukatek Maya children employ a concept of innate species potential or underlying essence much as urban American children seem to, namely, as an inferential framework for understanding the affiliation of an organism to a biological species, and for projecting known and unknown biological properties to organisms in the face of uncertainty. Together, these experiments indicate that folkpsychology cannot be the initial source of folkbiology. They also underscore the possibility of a species-wide and domain-specific basis for acquiring knowledge about the living world that is constrained and modified but not caused or created by prior nonbiological thinking and subsequent cultural experience.

The working practices of Birmingham's Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies

This article offers a history of the working practices of the Birmingham Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies. Based on extensive interviews with former members and on research into a new archive of the Centre, housed in the Cadbury Research Library, University of Birmingham, it argues that cultural studies as practised in the 1970s was always a heterogeneous subject. The CCCS was heavily influenced by the events of 1968 when it tried to develop a new type of radical and collaborative research and teaching agenda. Despite Stuart Hall's efforts to impose a focused link between politics and academic practice, the agenda soon gave way to a series of diverse and fruitful initiatives associated with the ‘sub-groups’ model of research.

The discrepancy between social isolation and loneliness as a clinically meaningful metric: findings from the Irish and English longitudinal studies of ageing (TILDA and ELSA)

Objective
Scant evidence is available on the discordance between loneliness and social isolation among older adults. We aimed to investigate this discordance and any health implications that it may have.

Method
Using nationally representative datasets from ageing cohorts in Ireland (TILDA) and England (ELSA), we created a metric of discordance between loneliness and social isolation, to which we refer as Social Asymmetry. This metric was the categorised difference between standardised scores on a scale of loneliness and a scale of social isolation, giving categories of: Concordantly Lonely and Isolated, Discordant: Robust to Loneliness, or Discordant: Susceptible to Loneliness. We used regression and multilevel modelling to identify potential relationships between Social Asymmetry and cognitive outcomes.

Results
Social Asymmetry predicted cognitive outcomes cross-sectionally and at a two-year follow-up, such that Discordant: Robust to Loneliness individuals were superior performers, but we failed to find evidence for Social Asymmetry as a predictor of cognitive trajectory over time.

Conclusions
We present a new metric and preliminary evidence of a relationship with clinical outcomes. Further research validating this metric in different populations, and evaluating its relationship with other outcomes, is warranted.

Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part I: Modeling Auto- and Cross-Correlation

The work in this paper is of particular significance since it considers the problem of modelling cross- and auto-correlation in statistical process monitoring. The presence of both types of correlation can lead to fault insensitivity or false alarms, although in published literature to date, only autocorrelation has been broadly considered. The proposed method, which uses a Kalman innovation model, effectively removes both correlations. The paper (and Part 2 [2]) has emerged from work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 and is of direct relevance to problems in several application areas including chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring.

Density functional and Monte Carlo studies of sulfur. I. Structure and bonding in S-n rings and chains (n=2-18) (vol 118, pg 9257, 2003)

Density functional calculations have been performed for ring isomers of sulfur with up to 18 atoms, and for chains with up to ten atoms. There are many isomers of both types, and the calculations predict the existence of new forms. Larger rings and chains are very flexible, with numerous local energy minima. Apart from a small, but consistent overestimate in the bond lengths, the results reproduce experimental structures where known. Calculations are also performed on the energy surfaces of S8 rings, on the interaction between a pair of such rings, and the reaction between one S8 ring and the triplet diradical S8 chain. The results for potential energies, vibrational frequencies, and reaction mechanisms in sulfur rings and chains provide essential ingredients for Monte Carlo simulations of the liquid–liquid phase transition. The results of these simulations will be presented in Part II.