Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Predicting forest attributes In southeast Alaska using artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used to predict forest characteristics. The data source is the Southeast Alaska (SEAK) Grid Inventory, a ground survey compiled by the USDA Forest Service at several thousand sites. The main objective of this article is to predict characteristics at unsurveyed locations between grid sites. A secondary objective is to evaluate the relative performance of different ANNs. Data from the grid sites are used to train six ANNs: multilayer perceptron, fuzzy ARTMAP, probabilistic, generalized regression, radial basis function, and learning vector quantization. A classification and regression tree method is used for comparison. Topographic variables are used to construct models: latitude and longitude coordinates, elevation, slope, and aspect. The models classify three forest characteristics: crown closure, species land cover, and tree size/structure. Models are constructed using n-fold cross-validation. Predictive accuracy is calculated using a method that accounts for the influence of misclassification as well as measuring correct classifications. The probabilistic and generalized regression networks are found to be the most accurate. The predictions of the ANN models are compared with a classification of the Tongass national forest in southeast Alaska based on the interpretation of satellite imagery and are found to be of similar accuracy.

Optimization and Prediction of Mechanical and Thermal Properties of Graphene/LLDPE Nanocomposites by Using Artificial Neural Networks

The focus of this work is to develop the knowledge of prediction of the physical and chemical properties of processed linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)/graphene nanoplatelets composites. Composites made from LLDPE reinforced with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 wt% grade C graphene nanoplatelets (C-GNP) were processed in a twin screw extruder with three different screw speeds and feeder speeds (50, 100, and 150 rpm). These applied conditions are used to optimize the following properties: thermal conductivity, crystallization temperature, degradation temperature, and tensile strength while prediction of these properties was done through artificial neural network (ANN). The three first properties increased with increase in both screw speed and C-GNP content. The tensile strength reached a maximum value at 4 wt% C-GNP and a speed of 150 rpm as this represented the optimum condition for the stress transfer through the amorphous chains of the matrix to the C-GNP. ANN can be confidently used as a tool to predict the above material properties before investing in development programs and actual manufacturing, thus significantly saving money, time, and effort.

A taxonomy for wavelet neural networks applied to nonlinear modelling

This article presents a novel classification of wavelet neural networks based on the orthogonality/non-orthogonality of neurons and the type of nonlinearity employed. On the basis of this classification different network types are studied and their characteristics illustrated by means of simple one-dimensional nonlinear examples. For multidimensional problems, which are affected by the curse of dimensionality, the idea of spherical wavelet functions is considered. The behaviour of these networks is also studied for modelling of a low-dimension map.

A new Jacobian matrix for optimal learning of single-layer neural networks

This paper investigates the learning of a wide class of single-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks (SLFNs) with two sets of adjustable parameters, i.e., the nonlinear parameters in the hidden nodes and the linear output weights. The main objective is to both speed up the convergence of second-order learning algorithms such as Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), as well as to improve the network performance. This is achieved here by reducing the dimension of the solution space and by introducing a new Jacobian matrix. Unlike conventional supervised learning methods which optimize these two sets of parameters simultaneously, the linear output weights are first converted into dependent parameters, thereby removing the need for their explicit computation. Consequently, the neural network (NN) learning is performed over a solution space of reduced dimension. A new Jacobian matrix is then proposed for use with the popular second-order learning methods in order to achieve a more accurate approximation of the cost function. The efficacy of the proposed method is shown through an analysis of the computational complexity and by presenting simulation results from four different examples.

A recursive rule base adjustment algorithm for a fuzzy logic controller

This paper introduces a recursive rule base adjustment to enhance the performance of fuzzy logic controllers. Here the fuzzy controller is constructed on the basis of a decision table (DT), relying on membership functions and fuzzy rules that incorporate heuristic knowledge and operator experience. If the controller performance is not satisfactory, it has previously been suggested that the rule base be altered by combined tuning of membership functions and controller scaling factors. The alternative approach proposed here entails alteration of the fuzzy rule base. The recursive rule base adjustment algorithm proposed in this paper has the benefit that it is computationally more efficient for the generation of a DT, and advantage for online realization. Simulation results are presented to support this thesis. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.