Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

Corrigendum Vol. 30, Issue 2, 259, Article first published online: 15 MAR 2009 to correct the order of authors names: Bu R., K. Hadri, and B. McCabe.

Labor unions and Nash bargaining using coalition formation games

In this paper we examine the properties of stable coalitions under sequential and simultaneous bargaining by competing labor unions. We do this using the Nash bargaining solution and various notions of stability, namely, Nash, coalitional, contractual and core stability. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

Explaining young mortality

Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20's are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5-89, rather than 20-89 or 50-89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.

Hybrid image/ray-shooting UHF radio propagation predictor for populated indoor environments

A novel model for indoor wireless communication, based on a dual image and ray-shooting approach, is presented. The model, capable of improved site-specific indoor propagation prediction, considers multiple human bodies moving within the environment. In a modern office at 2.45GHz, the combined effect of pedestrian traffic and a moving receiver causes rapid temporal fading of up to 30dB.

Identification and molecular cloning of a novel amphibian Bowman Birk-type trypsin inhibitor from the skin of the Hejiang Odorous Frog; Odorrana hejiangensis.

In this study, an amphibian (Odorrana hejiangensis) skin extract was fractionated by reverse phase HPLC and fractions were screened for trypsin inhibitory activity. Using this initial approach, a novel trypsin inhibitory peptide was detected with an apparent protonated molecular mass of 1804.83Da, as determined by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry. It was named Hejiang trypsin inhibitor (HJTI) in accordance. The primary structure of the biosynthetic precursor of HJTI was deduced from a cDNA sequence cloned from a skin-derived cDNA library. The primary structure of the encoded predicted mature active peptide was established as: GAPKGCWTKSYPPQPCS (non-protonated monoisotopic molecular mass - 1802.81Da). On the basis of this unequivocal amino acid sequence, a synthetic replicate was synthesized by solid phase Fmoc chemistry. This replicate displayed a moderately potent trypsin inhibition with a K(i) of 388nM. Bioinformatic analysis of the primary structure of this peptide indicated that it was a member of the Bowman-Birk family of protease inhibitors. The substitutions of Gln-14 and Ser-17 by Lys, resulted in an increase in cationicity and a small increase in potency to a K(i) value of 218nM. Neither HJTI nor its synthetic analog, possessed any significant antimicrobial activity.

Nash equilibria of network formation games under consent

We investigate the Nash equilibria of game theoretic models of network formation based on explicit consent in link formation. These so-called “consent models” explicitly take account of link formation costs. We provide characterizations of Nash equilibria of such consent models under both one-sided and two-sided costs of link formation. We relate these equilibrium concepts to link-based stability concepts, in particular strong link deletion proofness.

Field fluxes and speciation of arsines emanating from soils

The biogeochemical cycle of arsenic (As) has been extensively studied over the past decades because As is an environmentally ubiquitous, nonthreshold carcinogen, which is often elevated in drinking water and food. It has been known for over a century that micro-organisms can volatilize inorganic As salts to arsines (arsine AsH(3), mono-, di-, and trimethylarsines, MeAsH(2), Me(2)AsH, and TMAs, respectively), but this part of the As cycle, with the exception of geothermal environs, has been almost entirely neglected because of a lack of suited field measurement approaches. Here, a validated, robust, and low-level field-deployable method employing arsine chemotrapping was used to quantify and qualify arsines emanating from soil surfaces in the field. Up to 240 mg/ha/y arsines was released from low-level polluted paddy soils (11.3 ± 0.9 mg/kg As), primarily as TMAs, whereas arsine flux below method detection limit was measured from a highly contaminated mine spoil (1359 ± 212 mg/kg As), indicating that soil chemistry is vital in understanding this phenomenon. In microcosm studies, we could show that under reducing conditions, induced by organic matter (OM) amendment, a range of soils varied in their properties, from natural upland peats to highly impacted mine-spoils, could all volatilize arsines. Volatilization rates from 0.5 to 70 µg/kg/y were measured, and AsH(3), MeAsH(2), Me(2)AsH, and TMAs were all identified. Addition of methylated oxidated pentavalent As, namely monomethylarsonic acid (MMAA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMAA), to soil resulted in elevated yearly rates of volatilization with up to 3.5% of the total As volatilized, suggesting that the initial conversion of inorganic As to MMAA limits the rate of arsine and methylarsines production by soils. The nature of OM amendment altered volatilization quantitatively and qualitatively, and total arsines release from soil showed correlation between the quantity of As and the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the soil porewater. The global flux of arsines emanating from soils was estimated and placed in the context of As atmospheric inputs, with arsines contributing from 0.9 to 2.6% of the global budget.

Nonparametric Estimation of Data Dimensionality Prior to Data Compression: the case of the Human Development Index

In many applications in applied statistics researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually has high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data does not have to be linearized. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension three and the index loses information.

Peer effects in UK adolescent substance use: Never mind the classmates?

This article estimates peer influences on the alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use of UK adolescents. We present evidence of large, positive and statistically significant peer effects in all three behaviours when classmates are taken as the reference group. We also find large, positive and statistically significant associations between own substance use and friends' substance use. When both reference groups are considered simultaneously, the influence of classmates either disappears or is much reduced, whereas the association between own and friends' behaviours does not change. The suggestion is that classmate behaviour is primarily relevant only inasmuch as it proxies for friends' behaviour.

Beaufort trout MicroPlex:A high-throughput multiplex platform comprising 38 informative microsatellite loci for use in resident and anadromous (sea trout) brown trout Salmo trutta genetic studies

A flexible panel consisting of 38 informative microsatellite markers for Salmo trutta is described. These markers were selected from a pool of over 150 candidate loci that can be readily amplified in four multiplex PCR groups but other permutations are also possible. The basic properties of each markers were assessed in six population samples from both the Burrishoole catchment, in the west of Ireland, and Lough Neagh, in Northern Ireland. A method to assess the relative utility of individual markers for the detection of population genetic structuring is also described. Given its flexibility, technical reliability and high degree of informativeness, the use of this panel of markers is advocated as a standard for S. trutta genetic studies. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Secure Implementation in Production Economies

This paper shows that, in production economies, the generalized serial social choice functions defined by Shenker (1992) are securely implementable (in the sense of Saijo et al., 2007) and that they include the well-known fixed path social choice functions.

New insights on postglacial colonization in western Europe: the phylogeography of the Leisler’s bat (Nyctalus leisleri)

Despite recent advances in the understanding of the interplay between a dynamic physical environment and phylogeography in Europe, the origins of contemporary Irish biota remain uncertain. Current thinking is that Ireland was colonized post-glacially from southern European refugia, following the end of the last glacial maximum(LGM), some 20 000 years BP. The Leisler’s bat (Nyctalus leisleri), one of the few native Irish mammal species, is widely distributed throughout Europe but, with the exception of Ireland, is generally rare and considered vulnerable. We investigate the origins and phylogeographic relationships of Irish populations in relation to those across Europe, including the closely related species N. azoreum. We use a combination of approaches, including mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers, in addition to approximate Bayesian computation and palaeo-climatic species distribution modelling. Molecular analyses revealed two distinct and diverse European mitochondrialDNAlineages,which probably diverged in separate glacial refugia. Awestern lineage, restricted to Ireland, Britain and the Azores, comprises Irish and British N. leisleri and N. azoreum specimens; an eastern lineage is distributed throughout mainland Europe. Palaeo-climatic projections indicate suitable habitats during the LGM, including known glacial refugia, in addition to potential novel cryptic refugia along the western fringe of Europe. These results may be applicable to populations of many species.