Earthquake aftershock anxiety: An examination of psychosocial contributing factors and symptomatic outcomes.

This study examined the direct and indirect effects of cognitions and anxiety associated with aftershocks on psychological symptoms (anxiety, depression, acute stress) and daily functioning (general and relationship). Participants were 600 adults from Christchurch. Data collection was approximately four months after the fatal 2011 earthquake. Path analysis was used. Socioeconomic status was directly associated with appraisals of uncontrollability of response to aftershocks. These cognitions were directly related to aftershock anxiety, which heightened general anxiety, depression and acute stress symptoms. These symptoms were directly associated with relationship and general life dysfunction. Aftershock anxiety plays a significant role in ongoing psychological distress associated with earthquakes.

Towards core outcome set (COS) development: a follow-up descriptive survey of outcomes in Cochrane reviews

BACKGROUND: A core outcome set (COS) can address problems of outcome heterogeneity and outcome reporting bias in trials and systematic reviews, including Cochrane reviews, helping to reduce waste. One of the aims of the international Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) Initiative is to link the development and use of COS with the outcomes specified and reported in Cochrane reviews, including the outcomes listed in the summary of findings (SoF) tables. As part of this work, an earlier exploratory survey of the outcomes of newly published 2007 and 2011 Cochrane reviews was performed. This survey examined the use of COS, the variety of specified outcomes, and outcome reporting in Cochrane reviews by Cochrane Review Group (CRG). To examine changes over time and to explore outcomes that were repeatedly specified over time in Cochrane reviews by CRG, we conducted a follow-up survey of outcomes in 2013 Cochrane reviews.

METHODS: A descriptive survey of outcomes in Cochrane reviews that were first published in 2013. Outcomes specified in the methods sections and reported in the results section of the Cochrane reviews were examined by CRG. We also explored the uptake of SoF tables, the number of outcomes included in these, and the quality of the evidence for the outcomes.

RESULTS: Across the 50 CRGs, 375 Cochrane reviews that included at least one study specified a total of 3142 outcomes. Of these outcomes, 32 % (1008) were not reported in the results section of these reviews. For 23 % (233) of these non-reported outcomes, we did not find any reason in the text of the review for this non-report. Fifty-seven percent (216/375) of reviews included a SoF table.

CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of specified outcomes that were reported in Cochrane reviews had increased in 2013 (68 %) compared to 2007 (61 %) and 2011 (65 %). Importantly, 2013 Cochrane reviews that did not report specified outcomes were twice as likely to provide an explanation for why the outcome was not reported. There has been an increased uptake of SoF tables in Cochrane reviews. Outcomes that were repeatedly specified in Cochrane reviews by CRG in 2007, 2011, and 2013 may assist COS development.

Survey of new 2007 and 2011 Cochrane reviews found 37% of prespecified outcomes not reported

OBJECTIVES: To survey the outcomes used in Cochrane Reviews, as part of our work within the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials Initiative.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A descriptive survey of Cochrane Reviews, divided by Cochrane Review Group (CRG), published in full for the first time in 2007 and 2011. Outcomes specified in the methods section of each review and outcomes reported in the results section of each review were of interest, in this exploration of the common use of outcomes and core outcome sets (COS).

RESULTS: Seven hundred eighty-eight reviews, specifying 6,127 outcomes, were included. When we excluded specified outcomes from the 86 reviews that did not include any studies, we found that 1,996 (37%) specified outcomes were not reported. Of the 361 new reviews with studies from 2011, 113 (31%) had a "summary of findings" table (SoF). Fifteen broad outcome categories were identified and used to manage the outcome data. We found consistency in the use of these categories across CRGs but inconsistency in outcomes within these categories.

CONCLUSION: COS have been used rarely in Cochrane Reviews, but the introduction of SoF makes the development and application of COS timelier than ever.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

Treatment of retinopathy of prematurity in Northern Ireland, 2000-2011: a population-based study

Purpose To evaluate the incidence of treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) over a 12-year-period in Northern Ireland. Methods The medical records of all infants treated for ROP from January 2000 to December 2011were retrospectively reviewed and cross-referenced with the Neonatal Intensive Care Outcomes Research and Evaluation (NICORE) database. Results The Northern Ireland population data showed an increase in the number of live births from 2000 to 2011. The proportion of babies born with a birth weight <1501 g and/or <32 weeks’ gestational age remained constant (χ2 trend = 3.220, P = 0.0727), although the proportion of these babies who died prior to 42 weeks’ gestation decreased from 2000 to 2011 (P = 0.0196 using χ2 for trend = 5.445; P = 0.0354 using χ2 = 20.809). The prevalence of treatment-requiring ROP in these infants increased from 1.05% in 2000 to 5.78% in 2011 (P < 0.001 using χ2 trend = 16.309; P < 0.001 using χ2 = 31.378). Conclusions The present population-based study highlights that the incidence of treatment- requiring ROP is increasing in Northern Ireland. The increasing number of infants requiring treatment will need to be taken into consideration in the commissioning process for ROP services in Northern Ireland.

Still Unequal at Birth: Birth Weight, Socioeconomic Status and Outcomes at Age 9

The prevalence of low birth weight is an important aspect of public health which has been linked to increased risk of infant death, increased cost of care, and a range of later life outcomes. Using data from a new Irish cohort study, I document the relationship between birth weight and socio-economic status. The association of maternal education with birth weight does not appear to be due to the timing of birth or complications during pregnancy, even controlling for a wide range of background characteristics. However, results do suggest intergenerational persistence in the transmission of poor early life conditions. Birth weight predicts a number of outcomes at age 9, including test scores, hospital stays and health. An advantage of the data is that I am able to control for a number of typically unmeasured variables. I determine whether parental investments (as measured by the quality of interaction with the child, parenting style, or school quality) mediate the association between birth weight and later indicators. For test scores, there is evidence of non-linearity, and boys are more adversely affected than girls. I also consider whether there are heterogeneous effects by ability using quantile regression. These results are consistent with a literature which finds that there is a causal relationship between early life conditions and later outcomes.

Cord blood adipokines, neonatal anthropometrics and postnatal growth in offspring of Hispanic and Native American women with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND: Offspring of women with diabetes mellitus (DM) during pregnancy have a risk of developing metabolic disease in adulthood greater than that conferred by genetics alone. The mechanisms responsible are unknown, but likely involve fetal exposure to the in utero milieu, including glucose and circulating adipokines. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of maternal DM on fetal adipokines and anthropometry in infants of Hispanic and Native American women.

METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of offspring of mothers with normoglycemia (Con-O; n = 79) or type 2 or gestational DM (DM-O; n = 45) pregnancies. Infant anthropometrics were measured at birth and 1-month of age. Cord leptin, high-molecular-weight adiponectin (HMWA), pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF) and C-peptide were measured by ELISA. Differences between groups were assessed using the Generalized Linear Model framework. Correlations were calculated as standardized regression coefficients and adjusted for significant covariates.

RESULTS: DM-O were heavier at birth than Con-O (3.7 ± 0.6 vs. 3.4 ± 0.4 kg, p = 0.024), but sum of skinfolds (SSF) were not different. At 1-month, there was no difference in weight, SSF or % body fat or postnatal growth between groups. Leptin was higher in DM-O (20.1 ± 14.9 vs. 9.5 ± 9.9 ng/ml in Con-O, p < 0.0001). Leptin was positively associated with birth weight (p = 0.0007) and SSF (p = 0.002) in Con-O and with maternal hemoglobin A1c in both groups (Con-O, p = 0.023; DM-O, p = 0.006). PEDF was positively associated with birth weight in all infants (p = 0.004). Leptin was positively associated with PEDF in both groups, with a stronger correlation in DM-O (p = 0.009). At 1-month, HMWA was positively associated with body weight (p = 0.004), SSF (p = 0.025) and % body fat (p = 0.004) across the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS: Maternal DM results in fetal hyperleptinemia independent of adiposity. HMWA appears to influence postnatal growth. Thus, in utero exposure to DM imparts hormonal differences on infants even without aberrant growth.

The influence of area level social deprivation on preoperative disease severity and postoperative outcomes following unicompartmental knee joint replacement

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the effect of socioeconomic deprivation on preoperative disease and outcome following unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR).

METHODS: 307 Oxford UKRs implanted between 2008 and 2013 under the care of one surgeon using the same surgical technique were analysed. Deprivation was quantified using the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure. Preoperative disease severity and postoperative outcome were measured using the Oxford Knee Score (OKS).

RESULTS: There was no difference in preoperative OKS between deprivation groups. Preoperative knee range of motion (ROM) was significantly reduced in more deprived patients with 10° less ROM than least deprived patients. Postoperatively there was no difference in OKS improvement between deprivation groups (p=0.46), with improvements of 19.5 and 21.0 units in the most and least deprived groups respectively. There was no significant association between deprivation and OKS improvement on unadjusted or adjusted analysis. Preoperative OKS, Short Form 12 mental component score and length of stay were significant independent predictors of OKS improvement. A significantly lower proportion of the most deprived group (15%) reported being able to walk an unlimited distance compared to the least deprived group (41%) one year postoperatively.

CONCLUSION: More deprived patients can achieve similar improvements in OKS to less deprived patients following UKR.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2b - retrospective cohort study of prognosis.