The British conservative party and Europe:The choosing of John Major

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the diagnosis and management of Barrett's oesophagus

These guidelines provide a practical and evidence-based resource for the management of patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related early neoplasia. The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) instrument was followed to provide a methodological strategy for the guideline development. A systematic review of the literature was performed for English language articles published up until December 2012 in order to address controversial issues in Barrett's oesophagus including definition, screening and diagnosis, surveillance, pathological grading for dysplasia, management of dysplasia, and early cancer including training requirements. The rigour and quality of the studies was evaluated using the SIGN checklist system. Recommendations on each topic were scored by each author using a five-tier system (A+, strong agreement, to D+, strongly disagree). Statements that failed to reach substantial agreement among authors, defined as >80% agreement (A or A+), were revisited and modified until substantial agreement (>80%) was reached. In formulating these guidelines, we took into consideration benefits and risks for the population and national health system, as well as patient perspectives. For the first time, we have suggested stratification of patients according to their estimated cancer risk based on clinical and histopathological criteria. In order to improve communication between clinicians, we recommend the use of minimum datasets for reporting endoscopic and pathological findings. We advocate endoscopic therapy for high-grade dysplasia and early cancer, which should be performed in high-volume centres. We hope that these guidelines will standardise and improve management for patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related neoplasia.

Breaking the Intimate Screen: Pre-Recording, Special Effects and the Aesthetics of Early British Television

The technological constraints of early British television encouraged drama productions which emphasised the immediate, the enclosed and the close-up, an approach which Jason Jacobs described in the title of his seminal study as 'the intimate screen'. While Jacobs' book showed that this conception of early British television drama was only part of the reality, he did not focus on the role that special effects played in expanding the scope of the early television screen. This article will focus upon this role, showing that special effects were not only of use in expanding the temporal and spatial scope of television, but were also considered to be of interest to the audience as a way of exploring the new medium, receiving coverage in the popular press. These effects included pre-recorded film inserts, pre-recorded narration, multiple sets, model work and animation, combined with the live studio performances. Drawing upon archival research into television production files and scripts as well as audience responses and periodical coverage of television at the time of broadcast, this article will focus on telefantasy. This genre offered particular opportunities for utilising effects in ways that seemed appropriate for the experimentation with the form of television and for the drama narratives. This period also saw a variety of shifts within television as the BBC sought to determine a specific identity and understand the possibilities for the new medium.
This research also incorporates the BBC's own research and internal dialogue concerning audiences and how their tastes should best be met, at a time when the television audience was not only growing in terms of number but was also expanding geographically and socially beyond the moneyed Londoners who could afford the first television sets and were within range of the Alexandra Palace transmissions. The primary case study for this article will be the 1949 production of H.G.Wells’ The Time Machine, which incorporated pre-recorded audio and film inserts, which expanded the narrative out of the live studio performance both temporally and spatially, with the effects work receiving coverage in the popular magazine Illustrated. Other productions considered will be the 1938 and 1948 productions of RUR, the 1948 production of Blithe Spirit, and the 1950 adaptation of The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Despite the focus on telefantasy, this article will also include examples from other genres, both dramatic and factual, showing how the BBC's response to the changing television audience was to restrict drama to a more 'realistic' aesthetic and to move experimentation with televisual form to non-drama productions such as variety performances.

The geographical structure of British bird distributions:diversity, spatial turnover and scale

1. Using data on the spatial distribution of the British avifauna, we address three basic questions about the spatial structure of assemblages: (i) Is there a relationship between species richness (alpha diversity) and spatial turnover of species (beta diversity)? (ii) Do high richness locations have fewer species in common with neighbouring areas than low richness locations?, and (iii) Are any such relationships contingent on spatial scale (resolution or quadrat area), and do they reflect the operation of a particular kind of species-area relationship (SAR)?

2. For all measures of spatial turnover, we found a negative relationship with species richness. This held across all scales, with the exception of turnover measured as beta (sim).

3. Higher richness areas were found to have more species in common with neighbouring areas.

4. The logarithmic SAR fitted better than the power SAR overall, and fitted significantly better in areas with low richness and high turnover.

5. Spatial patterns of both turnover and richness vary with scale. The finest scale richness pattern (10 km) and the coarse scale richness pattern (90 km) are statistically unrelated. The same is true of the turnover patterns.

6. With coarsening scale, locations of the most species-rich quadrats move north. This observed sensitivity of richness 'hotspot' location to spatial scale has implications for conservation biology, e.g. the location of a reserve selected on the basis of maximum richness may change considerably with reserve size or scale of analysis.

7. Average turnover measured using indices declined with coarsening scale, but the average number of species gained or lost between neighbouring quadrats was essentially scale invariant at 10-13 species, despite mean richness rising from 80 to 146 species (across an 81-fold area increase). We show that this kind of scale invariance is consistent with the logarithmic SAR.