Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g. Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Talking about colds and flu: The lay diagnosis of two common illnesses among older British people

This paper reports on a study of the ways in which 54 older people in South Wales (UK) talk about the symptoms and causes of cold and influenza (flu). The study was designed to understand why older people might reject or accept the offer of seasonal flu vaccine, and in the course of the interviews respondents were also asked to express their views about the nature and causes of the two key illnesses. The latter are among the most common infections in human beings. In terms of the biomedical paradigm the common cold is caused by numerous respiratory viruses, whilst flu is caused by the influenza virus. Medical diagnosis is usually made on clinical grounds without laboratory confirmation. Symptoms of flu include sudden onset of fever and cough, and colds are characterized by sneezing, sore throat, and runny nose, but in practice the symptoms often overlap. In this study we examine the degree by which the views of lay people with respect to both diagnosis and epidemiology diverge with that which is evident in biomedical discourse. Our results indicate that whilst most of the identified symptoms are common to lay and professional people, the former integrate symptoms into a markedly different observational frame from the latter. And as far as causation is concerned it is clear that lay people emphasize the role of 'resistance' and 'immunity' at least as much as 'infection' in accounting for the onset of colds and flu. The data are analyzed using novel methods that focus on the co-occurrence of concepts and are displayed as semantic networks. As well as reporting on its findings the authors draw out some implications of the study for social scientific and policy discussions concerning lay diagnosis, lay expertise and the concept of an expert patient.

The matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) 5A/6A promoter polymorphism is not associated with ischaemic heart disease: Analysis employing a family based approach

Matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) has been proposed as an important mediator of the atherosclerotic process. The possible role of the functional -1612(.)5A/6A polymorphism of the MMP-3 gene in the susceptibility to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was investigated in a well-defined Irish population using two recently described family based tests of association. One thousand and twelve individuals from 386 families with at least one member prematurely affected with IHD were genotyped. Using the combined transmission disequilibrium test (TDT)/sib-TDT and the pedigree disequilibrium test (PDT), no association between the MMP-3 -1612 5A/6A polymorphism and IHD was found. Our data demonstrate that, in an Irish population, the MMP-3 -1612 5A/6A polymorphism is not associated with IHD.