Combining vitamin C and carotenoid biomarkers better predicts fruit and vegetable intake than individual biomarkers in dietary intervention studies

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether combining potential biomarkers of fruit and vegetables is better at predicting FV intake within FV intervention studies than single biomarkers.

DESIGN: Data from a tightly controlled randomised FV intervention study (BIOFAV; all food provided and two meals/day on weekdays consumed under supervision) were used. A total of 30 participants were randomised to either 2, 5 or 8 portions FV/day for 4 weeks, and blood samples were collected at baseline and 4 weeks for plasma vitamin C and serum carotenoid analysis. The combined biomarker approach was also tested in three further FV intervention studies conducted by the same research team, with less strict dietary control (FV provided and no supervised meals).

RESULTS: The combined model containing all carotenoids and vitamin C was a better fit than either the vitamin C only (P < 0.001) model or the lutein only (P = 0.006) model in the BIOFAV study. The C-statistic was slightly lower in the lutein only model (0.85) and in the model based upon factor analysis (0.88), and much lower in the vitamin C model (0.68) compared with the full model (0.95). Results for the other studies were similar, although the differences between the models were less marked.

CONCLUSIONS: Although there was some variation between studies, which may relate to the level of dietary control or participant characteristics, a combined biomarker approach to assess overall FV consumption may more accurately predict FV intake within intervention studies than the use of a single biomarker. The generalisability of these findings to other populations and study designs remains to be tested. 

LSQ14bdq: a type Ic Super-luminous Supernova with a double-peaked light curve

We present data for LSQ14bdq, a hydrogen-poor super-luminous supernova (SLSN) discovered by the La Silla QUEST survey and classified by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects. The spectrum and light curve are very similar to slow-declining SLSNe such as PTF12dam. However, detections within ∼1 day after explosion show a bright and relatively fast initial peak, lasting for ∼15 days, prior to the usual slow rise to maximum light. The broader, main peak can be fit with either central engine or circumstellar interaction models. We discuss the implications of the precursor peak in the context of these models. It is too bright and narrow to be explained as a normal ⁵⁶Ni-powered SN, and we suggest that interaction models may struggle to fit the two peaks simultaneously. We propose that the initial peak may arise from the post-shock cooling of extended stellar material, and reheating by a central engine drives the second peak. In this picture, we show that an explosion energy of ∼2 × 10⁵² erg and a progenitor radius of a few hundred solar radii would be required to power the early emission. The competing engine models involve rapidly spinning magnetars (neutron stars) or fallback onto a central black hole. The prompt energy required may favor the black hole scenario. The bright initial peak may be difficult to reconcile with a compact Wolf-Rayet star as a progenitor since the inferred energies and ejected masses become unphysical.

Constraints on explosive silicon burning in core-collapse supernovae from measured Ni/Fe ratios

Measurements of explosive nucleosynthesis yields in core-collapse supernovae provide tests for explosion models. We investigate constraints on explosive conditions derivable from measured amounts of nickel and iron after radioactive decays using nucleosynthesis networks with parameterized thermodynamic trajectories. The Ni/Fe ratio is for most regimes dominated by the production ratio of Ni-58/(Fe-54 + Ni-56), which tends to grow with higher neutron excess and with higher entropy. For SN 2012ec, a supernova (SN) that produced a Ni/Fe ratio of 3.4 +/- 1.2 times solar, we find that burning of a fuel with neutron excess eta approximate to 6 x 10(-3) is required. Unless the progenitor metallicity is over five times solar, the only layer in the progenitor with such a neutron excess is the silicon shell. SNe producing large amounts of stable nickel thus suggest that this deep-lying layer can be, at least partially, ejected in the explosion. We find that common spherically symmetric models of M-ZAMS less than or similar to 13 M-circle dot stars exploding with a delay time of less than one second (M-cut < 1.5 M-circle dot) are able to achieve such silicon-shell ejection. SNe that produce solar or subsolar Ni/Fe ratios, such as SN 1987A, must instead have burnt and ejected only oxygen-shell material, which allows a lower limit to the mass cut to be set. Finally, we find that the extreme Ni/Fe value of 60-75 times solar derived for the Crab cannot be reproduced by any realistic entropy burning outside the iron core, and neutrino-neutronization obtained in electron capture models remains the only viable explanation.

Investigating Intra-individual Dietary Changes and Radiocarbon Ages Using High Resolution δ13C, δ15N Isotope Ratios and 14C Ages Obtained From Dentine Increments

Ten medieval permanent teeth were subjected to incremental dentine sectioning and stable isotope analysis to investigate dietary changes in high resolution. In addition to this, eight increments were also selected for 14C measurements to examine possible intra-individual age differences. Results reveal the cessation of weaning, various dietary profiles and in some cases significantly different 14C ages obtained from a single tooth. This case study illustrates how 14C measurements can function as a proxy alongside the commonly used carbon and nitrogen stable isotope values to interpret the diet of past individuals

Low luminosity TypeII supernovae-II. Pointing towards moderate mass precursors

We present new data for five underluminous Type II-plateau supernovae (SNe IIP), namely SN 1999gn, SN 2002gd, SN 2003Z, SN 2004eg and SN 2006ov. This new sample of lowluminosity SNe IIP (LL SNe IIP) is analysed together with similar objects studied in the past. All of them show a flat light-curve plateau lasting about 100 d, an underluminous late-time exponential tail, intrinsic colours that are unusually red, and spectra showing prominent and narrow P Cygni lines. A velocity of the ejected material below 10³ km s^-1 is inferred from measurements at the end of the plateau. The 56Ni masses ejected in the explosion are very small (≤10^-2 M⊙). We investigate the correlations among ⁵⁶Ni mass, expansion velocity of the ejecta and absolute magnitude in the middle of the plateau, confirming the main findings of Hamuy, according to which events showing brighter plateau and larger expansion velocities are expected to produce more 56Ni. We propose that these faint objects represent the LL tail of a continuous distribution in parameters space of SNe IIP. The physical properties of the progenitors at the explosion are estimated through the hydrodynamical modelling of the observables for two representative events of this class, namely SN 2005cs and SN 2008in. We find that the majority of LL SNe IIP, and quite possibly all, originate in the core collapse of intermediate-mass stars, in the mass range 10-15 M⊙. 

The nebular spectra of SN 2012aw and constraints on stellar nucleosynthesis from oxygen emission lines

We present nebular-phase optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of the Type IIP supernova SN 2012aw combined with non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer calculations applied to ejecta from stellar evolution/explosion models. Our spectral synthesis models generally show good agreement with the ejecta from a M_ZAMS = 15 M_⊙progenitor star. The emission lines of oxygen, sodium, and magnesium are all consistent with the nucleosynthesis in a progenitor in the 14-18 M_⊙ range.We also demonstrate how the evolution of the oxygen cooling lines of [O I] λ5577, [O I] λ6300, and [O I] λ6364 can be used to constrain the mass of oxygen in the non-molecularly cooled ashes to < 1 M_⊙, independent of the mixing in the ejecta. This constraint implies that any progenitor model of initial mass greater than 20 M_⊙ would be difficult to reconcile with the observed line strengths. A stellar progenitor of around M_ZAMS = 15 M_⊙ can consistently explain the directly measured luminosity of the progenitor star, the observed nebular spectra, and the inferred pre-supernova mass-loss rate.We conclude that there is still no convincing example of a Type IIP supernova showing the nucleosynthesis products expected from an M_ZAMS > 20 M_⊙ progenitor. © 2014 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.

On the progenitor of the Type Ic SN 2013dk in the Antennae galaxies

We report the results of our search for the progenitor candidate of SN 2013dk, a Type Ic supernova (SN) that exploded in the Antennae galaxy system. We compare pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST) archival images with SN images obtained using adaptive optics at the ESO Very Large Telescope. We isolate the SN position to within 3σ uncertainty radius of 0.02 arcsec and show that there is no detectable point source in any of the HST filter images within the error circle. We set an upper limit to the absolute magnitude of the progenitor to be MF555W ≳ -5.7, which does not allow Wolf-Rayet (WR) star progenitors to be ruled out. A bright source appears 0.17 arcsec away, which is either a single bright supergiant or compact cluster, given its absolute magnitude of MF555W = -9.02 ± 0.28 extended wings and complex environment. However, even if this is a cluster, the spatial displacement of SN 2013dk means that its membership is not assured. The strongest statement that we can make is that in the immediate environment of SN 2013dk (within 10 pc or so), we find no clear evidence of either a point source coincident with the SN or a young stellar cluster that could host a massive WR progenitor.

The death of massive stars - II. Observational constraints on the progenitors of Type Ibc supernovae

The progenitors of many Type II core-collapse supernovae (SNe) have now been identified directly on pre-discovery imaging. Here, we present an extensive search for the progenitors of Type Ibc SNe in all available pre-discovery imaging since 1998. There are 12 Type Ibc SNe with no detections of progenitors in either deep ground-based or Hubble Space Telescope archival imaging. The deepest absolute BVR magnitude limits are between -4 and - 5 mag. We compare these limits with the observed Wolf-Rayet population in the Large Magellanic Cloud and estimate a 16 per cent probability that we have failed to detect such a progenitor by chance. Alternatively, the progenitors evolve significantly before core-collapse or we have underestimated the extinction towards the progenitors. Reviewing the relative rates and ejecta mass estimates from light-curve modelling of Ibc SNe, we find both incompatible with Wolf-Rayet stars with initial masses >25 M⊙ being the only progenitors. We present binary evolution models that fit these observational constraints. Stars in binaries with initial masses ≲ 20 M⊙ lose their hydrogen envelopes in binary interactions to become low-mass helium stars. They retain a low-mass hydrogen envelope until ≈104 yr before core-collapse; hence, it is not surprising that Galactic analogues have been difficult to identify.

The Unusually Luminous Extragalactic Nova SN 2010U

We present observations of the unusual optical transient SN 2010U, including spectra taken 1.03 days to 15.3 days after maximum light that identify it as a fast and luminous Fe II type nova. Our multi-band light curve traces the fast decline (t 2 = 3.5 ± 0.3 days) from maximum light (MV = -10.2 ± 0.1 mag), placing SN 2010U in the top 0.5% of the most luminous novae ever observed. We find typical ejecta velocities of ≈1100 km s-1 and that SN 2010U shares many spectral and photometric characteristics with two other fast and luminous Fe II type novae, including Nova LMC 1991 and M31N-2007-11d. For the extreme luminosity of this nova, the maximum magnitude versus rate of decline relationship indicates a massive white dwarf (WD) progenitor with a low pre-outburst accretion rate. However, this prediction is in conflict with emerging theories of nova populations, which predict that luminous novae from massive WDs should preferentially exhibit an alternate spectral type (He/N) near maximum light.

, Lexicographic Preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments: Consequences on Individual-Specific Willingness to Pay Estimates

In discrete choice experiments respondents are generally assumed to consider all of the attributes across each of the alternatives, and to choose their most preferred. However, results in this paper indicate that many respondents employ simplified lexicographic decision-making rules, whereby they have a ranking of the attributes, but their choice of an alternative is based solely on the level of their most important attribute(s). Not accounting for these simple decision-making heuristics introduces systemic errors and leads to biased point estimates, as they are a violation of the continuity axiom and a departure from the use of compensatory decision-making. In this paper the implications of lexicographic preferences are examined. In particular, using a mixed logit specification this paper investigates the sensitivity of individual-specific willingness to pay (WTP) estimates conditional on whether lexicographic decision-making rules are accounted for in the modelling of discrete choice responses. Empirical results are obtained from a discrete choice experiment that was carried out to address the value of a number of rural landscape attributes in Ireland

Duration-dependent effects of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on anodal tDCS induced motor cortex plasticity in older adults: a group and individual perspective

The brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism and stimulation duration are thought to play an important role in modulating motor cortex plasticity induced by non-invasive brain stimulation (NBS). In the present study we sought to determine whether these factors interact or exert independent effects in older adults. Fifty-four healthy older adults (mean age = 66.85 years) underwent two counterbalanced sessions of 1.5 mA anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (atDCS), applied over left M1 for either 10 or 20 min. Single pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was used to assess corticospinal excitability (CSE) before and every 5 min for 30 min following atDCS. On a group level, there was an interaction between stimulation duration and BDNF genotype, with Met carriers (n = 13) showing greater post-intervention potentiation of CSE compared to Val66Val homozygotes homozygotes (n = 37) following 20 min (p = 0.002) but not 10 min (p = 0.219) of stimulation. Moreover, Met carriers, but not Val/Val homozygotes, exhibited larger responses to TMS (p = 0.046) after 20 min atDCS, than following 10 min atDCS. On an individual level, two-step cluster analysis revealed a considerable degree of inter-individual variability, with under half of the total sample (42%) showing the expected potentiation of CSE in response to atDCS across both sessions. Intra-individual variability in response to different durations of atDCS was also apparent, with one-third of the total sample (34%) exhibiting LTP-like effects in one session but LTD-like effects in the other session. Both the inter-individual (p = 0.027) and intra-individual (p = 0.04) variability was associated with BDNF genotype. In older adults, the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism along with stimulation duration appears to play a role in modulating tDCS-induced motor cortex plasticity. The results may have implications for the design of NBS protocols for healthy and diseased aged populations.

Adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in early breast cancer: meta-analyses of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates have profound effects on bone physiology, and could modify the process of metastasis. We undertook collaborative meta-analyses to clarify the risks and benefits of adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in breast cancer.

METHODS: We sought individual patient data from all unconfounded trials in early breast cancer that randomised between bisphosphonate and control. Primary outcomes were recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer mortality. Primary subgroup investigations were site of first distant recurrence (bone or other), menopausal status (postmenopausal [combining natural and artificial] or not), and bisphosphonate class (aminobisphosphonate [eg, zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate] or other [ie, clodronate]). Intention-to-treat log-rank methods yielded bisphosphonate versus control first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: We received data on 18 766 women (18 206 [97%] in trials of 2-5 years of bisphosphonate) with median follow-up 5·6 woman-years, 3453 first recurrences, and 2106 subsequent deaths. Overall, the reductions in recurrence (RR 0·94, 95% CI 0·87-1·01; 2p=0·08), distant recurrence (0·92, 0·85-0·99; 2p=0·03), and breast cancer mortality (0·91, 0·83-0·99; 2p=0·04) were of only borderline significance, but the reduction in bone recurrence was more definite (0·83, 0·73-0·94; 2p=0·004). Among premenopausal women, treatment had no apparent effect on any outcome, but among 11 767 postmenopausal women it produced highly significant reductions in recurrence (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·94; 2p=0·002), distant recurrence (0·82, 0·74-0·92; 2p=0·0003), bone recurrence (0·72, 0·60-0·86; 2p=0·0002), and breast cancer mortality (0·82, 0·73-0·93; 2p=0·002). Even for bone recurrence, however, the heterogeneity of benefit was barely significant by menopausal status (2p=0·06 for trend with menopausal status) or age (2p=0·03), and it was non-significant by bisphosphonate class, treatment schedule, oestrogen receptor status, nodes, tumour grade, or concomitant chemotherapy. No differences were seen in non-breast cancer mortality. Bone fractures were reduced (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75-0·97; 2p=0·02).

INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant bisphosphonates reduce the rate of breast cancer recurrence in the bone and improve breast cancer survival, but there is definite benefit only in women who were postmenopausal when treatment began.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-analyses of Randomised Controlled Trials: Guidance on Their Use

Jayne Tierney and colleagues offer guidance on how to spot a well-designed and well-conducted individual participant data meta-analysis.

Summary Points 

• Systematic reviews are most commonly based on aggregate data extracted from publications or obtained from trial investigators. 

• Systematic reviews involving the central collection and analysis of individual participant data (IPD) usually are larger-scale, international, collaborative projects that can bring about substantial improvements to the quantity and quality of data, give greater scope in the analyses, and provide more detailed and robust results. 

• The process of collecting, checking, and analysing IPD is more complex than for aggregate data, and not all IPD meta-analyses are done to the same standard, making it difficult for researchers, clinicians, patients, policy makers, funders, and publishers to judge their quality. 

• Following our step-by-step guide will help reviewers and users of IPD meta-analyses to understand them better and recognise those that are well designed and conducted and so help ensure that policy, practice, and research are informed by robust evidence about the effects of interventions.