Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates

Reducible diffusions (RDs) are nonlinear transformations of analytically solvable Basic Diffusions (BDs). Hence, by construction RDs are analytically tractable and flexible diffusion processes. Existing literature on RDs has mostly focused on time-homogeneous transformations, which to a significant extent fail to explore the full potential of RDs from both theoretical and practical points of view. In this paper, we propose flexible and economically justifiable time variations to the transformations of RDs. Concentrating on the Constant Elasticity Variance (CEV) RDs, we consider nonlinear dynamics for our time-varying transformations with both deterministic and stochastic designs. Such time variations can greatly enhance the flexibility of RDs while maintaining sufficient tractability of the resulting models. In the meantime, our modeling approach enjoys the benefits of classical inferential techniques such as the Maximum Likelihood (ML). Our application to the UK and the US short-term interest rates suggests that from an empirical point of view time-varying transformations are highly relevant and statistically significant. We expect that the proposed models can describe more truthfully the dynamic time-varying behavior of economic and financial variables and potentially improve out-of-sample forecasts significantly.

Short comment: To Nail a Jellyfish? Finding a progressive agenda for EU anti-discrimination law

The title of this short (about 4500 words) intervention translates to "To Nail a Jellyfish? Finding a progressive agenda for EU anti-discrimination law". I engage with those criticising EU anti-discrimination law as yet another emanation of the EU's "neo-liberal" nature which fails to establish a viable social policy regime. I criticise this in two directions. First, I take issue with the theory that anti-discrimination law and policy has to be part of social policy. Actually, the field has a mission which differs from social policy, in that it addresses disadvantage resulting from othering, combating stereotypes as well as promoting accomodation of difference. Second, I show how the critique of judicialisation of policy is not unique to anti-discrimination law and policy. The so called turn to rights based employment law has been criticised under this mantra by those who fear that collective labour law mechanisms will become less prevalent. Further, those who have engaged with anti-discrimination law for a much longer time than those criticising it have also devised means to overcome the individualistic tendencies of rights adjudication. They have (partly successfully) argued in favour of establishing equality bodies and creating positive obligations. Thus, the critique neglects the field it takes on, and does not accept the fact that anti-discrimination law and policy must be considered a field in its own right instead of the servant of social law and policy.
Now, this is more a summary than an abstract - since I realise that not everyone reads German.

Energy compensation in the real world: Good compensation for small portions of chocolate and biscuits over short time periods in complicit consumers using commercially available foods

While investigations using covert food manipulations tend to suggest that individuals are poor at adjusting for previous energy intake, in the real world adults rarely consume foods of which they are ill-informed. This study investigated the impact in fully complicit consumers of consuming commercially available dark chocolate, milk chocolate, sweet biscuits and fruit bars on subsequent appetite. Using a repeated measures design, participants received four small portions (4 × 10-11 g) of either dark chocolate, milk chocolate, sweet biscuits, fruit bars or no food throughout five separate study days (counterbalanced in order), and test meal intake, hunger, liking and acceptability were measured. Participants consumed significantly less at lunch following dark chocolate, milk chocolate and sweet biscuits compared to no food (smallest t(19) = 2.47, p = 0.02), demonstrating very good energy compensation (269-334%). No effects were found for fruit bars (t(19) = 1.76, p = 0.09), in evening meal intakes (F(4,72) = 0.62, p = 0.65) or in total intake (lunch + evening meal + food portions) (F(4,72) = 0.40, p = 0.69). No differences between conditions were found in measures of hunger (largest F(4,76) = 1.26, p = 0.29), but fruit bars were significantly less familiar than all other foods (smallest t(19) = 3.14, p = 0.01). These findings demonstrate good compensation over the short term for small portions of familiar foods in complicit consumers. Findings are most plausibly explained as a result of participant awareness and cognitions, although the nature of these cognitions cannot be discerned from this study. These findings however, also suggest that covert manipulations may have limited transfer to real world scenarios.

Scyphozoan jellyfish provide short-term reproductive habitat for hyperiid amphipods in a temperate near-shore environment

Hyperiid amphipods (Order Amphipoda, Suborder Hyperiidea) are known to infest gelatinous zooplankton. However, the temporal backdrop to these associations is less clear, given that data are often gathered during discrete sampling events rather than over time. In general, hyperiids are considered to be pelagic: however, for individuals associated with metagenic jellyfishes in temperate shallow shelf seas, this may not always be the case, as the majority of their gelatinous hosts are present in the water column from spring to the onset of autumn. Here, we explored the temporal patterns of colonisation and overall duration of the association between Hyperia galba and 3 scyphozoan jellyfish species (Aurelia aurita, Cyanea capillata and C. lamarckii) in a temperate coastal system (Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland) during 2010 and 2012. Concomitantly, we used carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios to examine whether hyperiid infestation represented a permanent association with their host or was part of a more complex life history. We found that jellyfish were colonised by H. galba ca. 2 mo after they are first observed in the lough and that H. galba reached 100% prevalence in the different jellyfish species shortly before the medusae of each species disappeared from the water column. It is possible that some jellyfish overwintered in deeper water, prolonging the association between H. galba and their hosts. However, all the medusae sampled during the spring and early summer (whether they were newly emerged or had overwintered from the previous season) were not infected with hyperiids, suggesting that such behaviour was uncommon or that individuals had become dissociated from their host during the winter. Further evidence of temporary association came from stable isotope data, where δ13C and δ15N isotope ratios were indicative of feeding outside of their host prior to jellyfish colonisation. In combination, these findings suggest alternating habitat associations for H. galba, with the amphipods spending the majority of the year outside of the 3 scyphozoan species considered here.

Development of a Short Stay Unit in an Emergency Department

In 2009, the Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast, established a nine-bed, short-stay unit in its emergency department. This article explains the rationale for the model of care delivery adopted, and the importance of developing and working with integrated care pathways. It also discusses four areas essential to the effective running of the unit: interdisciplinary collaboration, training for clinical nurse leaders, management of change and leadership.

Dipolar emission in trench metal-insulator-metal waveguides for short-scale plasmonic communications: numerical optimization

Here we consider the numerical optimization of active surface plasmon polariton (SPP) trench waveguides suited for integration with luminescent polymers for use as highly localized SPP source devices in short-scale communication integrated circuits. The numerical analysis of the SPP modes within trench waveguide systems provides detailed information on the mode field components, effective indices, propagation lengths and mode areas. Such trench waveguide systems offer extremely high confinement with propagation on length scales appropriate to local interconnects, along with high efficiency coupling of dipolar emitters to waveguided plasmonic modes which can be close to 80%. The large Purcell factor exhibited in these structures will further lead to faster modulation capabilities along with an increased quantum yield beneficial for the proposed plasmon-emitting diode, a plasmonic analog of the light-emitting diode. The confinement of studied guided modes is on the order of 50 nm and the delay over the shorter 5 μm length scales will be on the order of 0.1 ps for the slowest propagating modes of the system, and significantly less for the faster modes.

The Application of Computational Chemistry and Chemometrics to Developing a Method for Online Monitoring of Polymer Degradation in the Manufacture of Bioresorbable Medical Implants

Bioresorbable polymers such as PLA have an important role to play in the development of temporary implantable medical devices with significant benefits over traditional therapies. However, development of new devices is hindered by high manufacturing costs associated with difficulties in processing the material. A major problem is the lack of insight on material degradation during processing. In this work, a method of quantifying degradation of PLA using IR spectroscopy coupled with computational chemistry and chemometric modeling is examined. It is shown that the method can predict the quantity of degradation products in solid-state samples with reasonably good accuracy, indicating the potential to adapt the method to developing an on-line sensor for monitoring PLA degradation in real-time during processing.

A table-top laser-based source of short, collimated, ultra-relativistic positron beams

An ultra-relativistic electron beam passing through a thick, high-Z solid target triggers an electromagnetic cascade, whereby a large number of high energy photons and electron-positron pairs are produced. By exploiting this physical process, we present here the first experimental evidence of the generation of ultra-short, highly collimated and ultra-relativistic positron beams following the interaction of a laser-wake field accelerated electron beam with high-Z solid targets. Clear evidence has also been obtained of the generation of GeV electron-positron jets with variable composition depending on the solid target material and thickness. The percentage of positrons in the overall leptonic beam has been observed to vary from a few per cent up to almost fifty per cent, implying a quasi-neutral electron-positron beam. We anticipate that these beams will be of direct relevance to the laboratory study of astrophysical leptonic jets and their interaction with the interstellar medium.

Nanoscale reinforced orthopaedic bone cement with graphene oxide - a possible solution to aseptic loosening of cemented hip implants? Preliminary results of an ongoing study

Hip replacement surgery is amongst the most common orthopaedic operations performed in the UK. Aseptic loosening is responsible for 40% of hip revision procedures. Aseptic loosening is a result of cement mantle fatigue. The aim of the current study is to analyse the effect of nanoscale Graphene Oxide (GO) on the mechanical properties of orthopaedic bone cement. Study Design A experimental thermal and mechanical analysis was conducted in a laboratory set up conforming to international standards for bone cement testing according to ISO 5583. Testing was performed on control cement samples of Colacryl bone cement, and additional samples reinforced with variable wt% of Graphene Oxide containing composites – 0.1%, 0.25%, 0.5% and 1.0% GO loading. Pilot Data Porosity demonstrated a linear relationship with increasing wt% loading compared to control (p<0.001). Thermal characterisation demonstrated maximal temperature during polymerization, and generated exotherm were inversely proportional to w%t loading (p<0.05) Fatigue strength performed on the control and 0.1 and 0.25%wt loadings of GO demonstrate increased average cycles to failure compared to control specimens. A right shift of the Weibull curve was demonstrated for both wt% available currently. Logistic regression analysis for failure demonstrated significant increases in number of cycles to failure for both specimens compared to a control (p<0.001). Forward Plan Early results convey positive benefits at low wt% loadings of GO containing bone cement. Study completion and further analysis is required in order to elude to the optimum w%t of GO which conveys the greatest mechanical advantage.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 European centers during 1989-2008: little short-term influence of sunshine hours or average temperature

BACKGROUND: The month of diagnosis in childhood type 1 diabetes shows seasonal variation.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the pattern and investigate if year-to-year irregularities are associated with meteorological factors using data from 50 000 children diagnosed under the age of 15 yr in 23 population-based European registries during 1989-2008.

METHODS: Tests for seasonal variation in monthly counts aggregated over the 20 yr period were performed. Time series regression was used to investigate if sunshine hour and average temperature data were predictive of the 240 monthly diagnosis counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.

RESULTS: Significant sinusoidal pattern was evident in all but two small centers with peaks in November to February and relative amplitudes ranging from ±11 to ±38% (median ±17%). However, most centers showed significant departures from a sinusoidal pattern. Pooling results over centers, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, with least seasonal variation in those under 5 yr. Boys showed greater seasonal variation than girls, particularly those aged 10-14 yr. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four 5-yr sub-periods. Departures from the sinusoidal trend in monthly diagnoses in the period were significantly associated with deviations from the norm in average temperature (0.8% reduction in diagnoses per 1 °C excess) but not with sunshine hours.

CONCLUSIONS: Seasonality was consistently apparent throughout the period in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5 s showed less marked variation. Neither sunshine hour nor average temperature data contributed in any substantial way to explaining departures from the sinusoidal pattern.

Detection Limits of Organic Compounds Achievable with Intense, Short-Pulse Lasers

Many organic molecules have strong absorption bands which can be accessed by ultraviolet short pulse lasers to produce efficient ionization. This resonant multiphoton ionization scheme has already been exploited as an ionization source in time-of-flight mass spectrometers used for environmental trace analysis. In the present work we quantify the ultimate potential of this technique by measuring absolute ion yields produced from the interaction of 267 nm femtosecond laser pulses with the organic molecules indole and toluene, and gases Xe, N2 and O2. Using multiphoton ionization cross sections extracted from these results, we show that the laser pulse parameters required for real-time detection of aromatic molecules at concentrations of one part per trillion in air and a limit of detection of a few attomoles are achievable with presently available commercial laser systems. The potential applications for the analysis of human breath, blood and tissue samples are discussed.

System flexibility provision using short term grid scale storage

This paper presents a novel analysis of the utilisation of small grid scale energy storage to mitigate negative system operational impacts due to high penetrations of wind power. This was investigated by artificially lowering the minimum stable generation level of a gas thermal generating unit coupled to a storage device over a five hour storage charging window using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model. The key findings of the analysis were a 0.18% reduction in wind curtailment, a 2.35 MW/min reduction in the ramping rate required to be met by all generators in the test system during a representative period and a total generation cost reduction of €6.5 million.