The British conservative party and Europe:The choosing of John Major

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

Wind generation and electricity demand during the severe winter of 2009/10 in Ireland

Throughout the world the share of wind power in the generation mix is increasing. In the All Island Grid, of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland there is now over 1.5 GW of installed wind power. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

'Regina v John Terry': The Discursive Construction of an Alleged Racist Event

This article explores the conformation in discourse of a verbal exchange and its subsequent mediatised and legal ramifications. The event concerns an allegedly racist insult directed by high profile English professional footballer John Terry towards another player, Anton Ferdinand, during a televised match in October 2011. The substance of Terry’s utterance, which included the noun phrase ‘fucking black cunt’, was found by a Chief Magistrate not to be a racist insult, although the fact that these actual words were framed within the utterance was not in dispute. The upshot of this ruling was that Terry was acquitted of a racially aggravated public order offence. A subsequent investigation by the regulatory commission of the English Football Association (FA) ruled, almost a year after the event, that Terry was guilty of racially abusing Ferdinand. Terry was banned for four matches and fined £220,000.

It is our contention that this event, played out in legal rulings, social media and print and broadcast media, constitutes a complex web of linguistic structures and strategies in discourse, and as such lends itself well to analysis with a broad range of tools from pragmatics, discourse analysis and cognitive linguistics. Amongst other things, such an analysis can help explain the seemingly anomalous - even contradictory - position adopted in the legal ruling with regard to the speech act status of ‘fucking black cunt’; namely, that the racist content of the utterance was not contested but that the speaker was found not to have issued a racist insult. Over its course, the article addresses this broader issue by making reference to the systemic-functional interpersonal function of language, particularly to the concepts of modality, polarity and modalisation. It also draws on models of verbal irony from linguistic pragmatics, notably from the theory of irony as echoic mention (c.f. Sperber and Wilson, 1981; Wilson and Sperber, 1992). Furthermore, the article makes use of the cognitive-linguistic framework, Text World Theory (c.f. Gavins, 2007; Werth, 1999) to examine the discourse positions occupied by key actors and adapts, from cognitive poetics, the theory of mind-modelling (c.f. Stockwell, 2009) to explore the conceptual means through which these actors discursively negotiate the event.

It is argued that the pragmatic and cognitive strategies that frame the entire incident go a long way towards mitigating the impact of so ostensibly stark an act of racial abuse. Moreover, it is suggested here that the reconciliation of Terry’s action was a result of the confluence of strategies of discourse with relations of power as embodied by the media, the law and perceptions of nationhood embraced by contemporary football culture. It is further proposed that the outcome of this episode, where the FA was put in the spotlight, and where both the conflict and its key antagonists were ‘intranational’, was strongly impelled by the institution of English football and its governing body both to reproduce and maintain social, cultural and ethnic cohesion and to avoid any sense that the event featured a discernable ‘out-group’.

The Complete Works of John Milton: Volume III: The Shorter Poems (826pp.)

Stephen B. Dobranski, Milton Quarterly 49.3 (October, 2015), 181-4:

'By addressing classical and neo-Latin works with which Milton's poems appear to engage, Haan has pursued something unattempted yet. Her erudite and engaging commentary on the Poemata is the most extensive and impressive that I have encountered in any edition ... Haan's discussion of Milton's Poemata - including the Testimonia, the one Italian and four Latin encomia by the poet's acquaintances published in 1645 and 1673 - is remarkably detailed and well-researched. In these sections, readers learn, for example, how Milton's Epitaphium Damonis borrows from both classical writers (Theocritus, Moschus) and contemporary models (Castiglione, Zanchi) while transcending all of them through a pattern of resurrection motifs. Or, readers can discover affinities between Milton's lament on the death of the Bishop of Ely and a poem by the Italian humanist Hieronymo Aleander, Jr., or learn about the connections between Milton's Elegia Quinta and George Buchanan's Maiae Calendae ... The Shorter Poems is a scholarly achievement of the highest order.'

Noam Reisner, Review of English Studies 65 (2014), 744-5:
‘Haan shines with her Neo-Latinist expertise by offering a vivid separate introduction to the Latin poems, which sets up Milton’s poemata specifically within the Neo-Latin contexts of the seventeenth century, thereby dispelling any remaining view of these poems as juvenilia (a view which results from reading the poems chronologically). … The present volume will instantly establish itself as the definitive resource for any reader interested in Milton’s shorter poems, and it is scarcely imaginable that it will ever be eclipsed or be in need of replacing. Its contribution is important in all areas, especially in providing for the first time in a single volume truly valuable documents which can teach us a lot more about Milton’s poetic development than simply reading the poems in chronological sequence. But perhaps, this edition’s greatest achievement is the way in which it succeeds in giving Milton’s Latin poems the pride of place they have long deserved as fully integral to Milton’s complete poetic imagination. Haan’s specific achievement in this regard is less in updating the translations than in providing a different context through which to look at the Latin poems themselves. Haan’s detailed commentaries set the Latin poems in a completely fresh light which looks beyond the obvious classical references and allusions, noted by Carey and many other editors, to Milton’s complex engagement with the Neo-Latin literary culture of his time. It is this aspect of the volume, more than anything else, which vindicates its essentialness.'

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

John Birks: Pioneer in quantitative palaeoecology

We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.

Which biomarkers are predictive specifically for cardiovascular or for non-cardiovascular mortality in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

OBJECTIVE: To examine a panel of 28 biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD mortality in a population-based cohort of men.

METHODS: Starting in 1979, middle-aged men in Caerphilly underwent detailed medical examination. Subsequently 2171 men were re-examined during 1989-1993, and fasting blood samples obtained from 1911 men (88%). Fibrinogen, viscosity and white cell count (WCC), routine biochemistry tests and lipids were analysed using fresh samples. Stored aliquots were later analysed for novel biomarkers. Statistical analysis of CVD and non-CVD mortality follow-up used competing risk Cox regression models with biomarkers in thirds tested at the 1% significance level after covariate adjustment.

RESULTS: During an average of 15.4years follow-up, troponin (subhazard ratio per third 1.71, 95% CI 1.46-1.99) and B-natriuretic peptide (BNP) (subhazard ratio per third 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) showed strong trends with CVD death but not with non-CVD death. WCC and fibrinogen showed similar weaker findings. Plasma viscosity, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were associated positively with both CVD death and non-CVD death while total cholesterol was associated positively with CVD death but negatively with non-CVD death. C-reactive protein (C-RP), alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), retinol binding protein 4 (RBP-4) and vitamin B6 were significantly associated only with non-CVD death, the last two negatively. Troponin, BNP and IL-6 showed evidence of diminishing associations with CVD mortality through follow-up.

CONCLUSION: Biomarkers for cardiac necrosis were strong, specific predictors of CVD mortality while many inflammatory markers were equally predictive of non-CVD mortality.