Inference in Credal Networks Through Integer Programming

A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; it offers a compact representation for sets of multivariate distributions. In this paper we present a new algorithm for inference in credal networks based on an integer programming reformulation. We are concerned with computation of lower/upper probabilities for a variable in a given credal network. Experiments reported in this paper indicate that this new algorithm has better performance than existing ones for some important classes of networks.

Anytime Marginal MAP Inference

This paper presents a new anytime algorithm for the marginal MAP problem in graphical models of bounded treewidth. We show asymptotic convergence and theoretical error bounds for any fixed step. Experiments show that it compares well to a state-of-the-art systematic search algorithm.

The Inferential Complexity of Bayesian and Credal Networks

This paper presents new results on the complexity of graph-theoretical models that represent probabilities (Bayesian networks) and that represent interval and set valued probabilities (credal networks). We define a new class of networks with bounded width, and introduce a new decision problem for Bayesian networks, the maximin a posteriori. We present new links between the Bayesian and credal networks, and present new results both for Bayesian networks (most probable explanation with observations, maximin a posteriori) and for credal networks (bounds on probabilities a posteriori, most probable explanation with and without observations, maximum a posteriori).

Propositional and Relational Bayesian Networks Associated with Imprecise and Qualitative Probabilistic Assessments

This paper investigates a representation language with flexibility inspired by probabilistic logic and compactness inspired by relational Bayesian networks. The goal is to handle propositional and first-order constructs together with precise, imprecise, indeterminate and qualitative probabilistic assessments. The paper shows how this can be achieved through the theory of credal networks. New exact and approximate inference algorithms based on multilinear programming and iterated/loopy propagation of interval probabilities are presented; their superior performance, compared to existing ones, is shown empirically.

Inference in credal networks using multilinear programming

A credal network is a graphical tool for representation and manipulation of uncertainty, where probability values may be imprecise or indeterminate. A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; in this context, inference is the computation of tight lower and upper bounds for conditional probabilities. In this paper we present new algorithms for inference in credal networks based on multilinear programming techniques. Experiments indicate that these new algorithms have better performance than existing ones, in the sense that they can produce more accurate results in larger networks.

Belief Updating and Learning in Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively through multilinear programming. We then discuss learning: we consider a maximum likelihood method that generates point estimates given a SQPN and empirical data, and we describe a Bayesian-minded method that employs the Imprecise Dirichlet Model to generate set-valued estimates.

A Stubbornly Large Mass of Cold Dust in the Ejecta of Supernova 1987A

We present new Herschel photometric and spectroscopic observations of Supernova 1987A, carried out in 2012. Our dedicated photometric measurements provide new 70 mu m data and improved imaging quality at 100 and 160 mu m compared to previous observations in 2010. Our Herschel spectra show only weak CO line emission, and provide an upper limit for the 63 mu m [O-I] line flux, eliminating the possibility that line contaminations distort the previously estimated dustmass. The far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) is well fitted by thermal emission from cold dust. The newly measured 70 mu m flux constrains the dust temperature, limiting it to nearly a single temperature. The far-infrared emission can be fitted by 0.5 +/- 0.1M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon, about a factor of two larger than the current nucleosynthetic mass prediction for carbon. The observation of SiO molecules at early and late phases suggests that silicates may also have formed and we could fit the SED with a combination of 0.3M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon and 0.5M(circle dot) of silicates, totalling 0.8M(circle dot) of dust. Our analysis thus supports the presence of a large dust reservoir in the ejecta of SN 1987A. The inferred dust mass suggests that supernovae can be an important source of dust in the interstellar medium, from local to high-redshift galaxies.

Effect of feed space allowance and period of access to food on dairy cow performance

Two experiments were conducted to examine the ‘long-term’ effect of feed space allowance and period of access to feed on dairy cow performance. In Experiment 1, three horizontal feed space allowances (20, 40 and 60 cm cow−1) were examined over a 127-d period (14 cows per treatment). In Experiment 2, 48 dairy cows were used in a continuous design (10-week duration) 2 × 2 factorial design experiment comprising two horizontal feed space allowances (15 and 40 cm cow−1), and two periods of access to feed (unrestricted and restricted). With the former, uneaten feed was removed at 08·00 h, while feeding took place at 09·00 h. With the latter, uneaten feed was removed at 06·00 h, while feeding was delayed until 12·00 h. Mean total dry-matter (DM) intakes were 19·0, 18·7 and 19·3 kg cow−1 d−1 with the 20, 40 and 60 cm cow−1 treatments in Experiment 1, and 18·1 and 18·2 kg cow−1 d−1 with the ‘restricted feeding time’ treatments, and 17·8 and 18·1 kg d−1 with the ‘unrestricted feeding time’ treatments (15 and 40 cm respectively) in Experiment 2. None of milk yield, milk composition, or end-of-study live weight or condition score were significantly affected by treatment in either experiment (P > 0·05), while fat + protein yield was reduced with the 15-cm treatment in Experiment 2 (P < 0·05). When access to feed was restricted by space or time constraints, cows modified their time budgets and increased their rates of intake.

Critical evaluation of pulse-echo ultrasonic test method for the determination of setting and mechanical properties of acrylic bone cement: Influence of mixing technique

Currently there is no reliable objective method to quantify the setting properties of acrylic bone cements within an operating theatre environment. Ultrasonic technology can be used to determine the acoustic properties of the polymerising bone cement, which are linked to material properties and provide indications of the physical and chemical changes occurring within the cement. The focus of this study was the critical evaluation of pulse-echo ultrasonic test method in determining the setting and mechanical properties of three different acrylic bone cement when prepared under atmospheric and vacuum mixing conditions. Results indicated that the ultrasonic pulse-echo technique provided a highly reproducible and accurate method of monitoring the polymerisation reaction and indicating the principal setting parameters when compared to ISO 5833 standard, irrespective of the acrylic bone cement or mixing method used. However, applying the same test method to predict the final mechanical properties of acrylic bone cement did not prove a wholly accurate approach. Inhomogeneities within the cement microstructure and specimen geometry were found to have a significant influence on mechanical property predictions. Consideration of all the results suggests that the non-invasive and non-destructive pulse-echo ultrasonic test method is an effective and reliable method for following the full polymerisation reaction of acrylic bone cement in real-time and then determining the setting properties within a surgical theatre environment. However the application of similar technology for predicting the final mechanical properties of acrylic bone cement on a consistent basis may prove difficult.

Antitussive drugs--past, present, and future

Cough remains a serious unmet clinical problem, both as a symptom of a range of other conditions such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, gastroesophageal reflux, and as a problem in its own right in patients with chronic cough of unknown origin. This article reviews our current understanding of the pathogenesis of cough and the hypertussive state characterizing a number of diseases as well as reviewing the evidence for the different classes of antitussive drug currently in clinical use. For completeness, the review also discusses a number of major drug classes often clinically used to treat cough but that are not generally classified as antitussive drugs. We also reviewed a number of drug classes in various stages of development as antitussive drugs. Perhaps surprising for drugs used to treat such a common symptom, there is a paucity of well-controlled clinical studies documenting evidence for the use of many of the drug classes in use today, particularly those available over the counter. Nonetheless, there has been a considerable increase in our understanding of the cough reflex over the last decade that has led to a number of promising new targets for antitussive drugs being identified and thus giving some hope of new drugs being available in the not too distant future for the treatment of this often debilitating symptom.

Spitzer observations of the asteroid-comet transition object and potential spacecraft target 107P (4015) Wilson-Harrington

Context: Near-Earth asteroid-comet transition object 107P/ (4015) Wilson-Harrington is a possible target of the joint European Space Agency (ESA) and Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Marco Polo sample return mission. Physical studies of this object are relevant to this mission, and also to understanding its asteroidal or cometary nature. Aims: Our aim is to obtain significant new constraints on the surface thermal properties of this object. Methods: We present mid-infrared photometry in two filters (16 and 22 μm) obtained with NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope on February 12, 2007, and results from the application of the Near Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM). We obtained high S/N in two mid-IR bands allowing accurate measurements of its thermal emission. Results: We obtain a well constrained beaming parameter (η = 1.39±0.26) and obtain a diameter and geometric albedo of D = 3.46±0.32 km, and pV = 0.059±0.011. We also obtain similar results when we apply this best-fitting thermal model to single-band mid-IR photometry reported by Campins et al. (1995, P&SS, 43, 733), Kraemer et al. (2005, AJ, 130, 2363) and Reach et al. (2007, Icarus, 191, 298). Conclusions: The albedo of 4015 Wilson-Harrington is low, consistent with those of comet nuclei and primitive C-, P-, D-type asteorids. We establish a rough lower limit for the thermal inertia of W-H of 60 Jm-2s-0.5 K-1 when it is at r = 1 AU, which is slightly over the limit of 30 Jm-2 s-0.5 K-1 derived by Groussin et al. (2009, Icarus, 199, 568) for the thermal inertia of the nucleus of comet 22P/Kopff.

Semi-interpenetrating polymer networks incorporating polygalacturonic acid for medical device applications

Background Over 20 million people in the US are living with an implantable medical device [ADDIN RW.CITE{{3114 Higgins,DavidM 2009}}1], with similar figures anticipated for Europe. Complications in the use of medical implants include the Foreign Body Response (FBR) characterised by macrophage adherence and fusion, and device-related infection due to bacterial biofilm formationADDIN RW.CITE{{3124 Harding,JacquelineL 2014}}2. Both can have detrimental consequences on the structural and functional integrity of the medical device [ADDIN RW.CITE{{3101 Anderson,JamesM 2008; 3124 Harding,JacquelineL 2014}}2,3], often necessitating removal; a painful and expensive procedure [ADDIN RW.CITE{{3121 Mah,Thien-FahC 2001}}4]. Materials are sought to attenuate both the FBR and device-related infection, leading to medical devices with improved biocompatibility and performance. Objectives The present work involves development of a semi-interpenetrating network (SIPN) hydrogel containing polygalacturonic acid (PGA), a biopolysaccharide similar in structure to hyaluronic acid. We aim to synthesise, characterise and determine the in vitro biocompatibility of the developed SIPN. Results & Discussion We have successfully incorporated PGA into a poly(HEMA) based hydrogel, which shows favourable swelling and wettability. The surface topography appears altered in comparison to the control material, with pronounced micrometer-scale features. In terms of in vitro performance, the SIPN showed increased protein adsorption, and biofilm formation (Staphylococcus epidermidis and Escherichia coli, up to 1 Log CFU/sample greater than control). However the SIPN displayed minimal cytotoxicity towards L929 fibroblasts, and was resistant to the adherence of RAW 264.7 macrophages. Conclusions The PGA incorporated SIPN lacks cytotoxicity and shows reduced macrophage adherence, however the increased biofilm formation highlights a concern regarding possible device related infection in clinical use. Future work will focus on strategies to reduce bacterial adherence, while maintaining biocompatibility.

Tonnacypris glacialis (Ostracoda, Cyprididae):taxonomic position, (palaeo)ecology, and zoogeography

The freshwater ostracod Tonnacypris glaciallis (Sars, 1890) is reported from the European Pleistocene for the first time. The historical allocation of the species is discussed, and the species composition and characteristics of Tonnacypris is Diebel & Pietrzeniuk (1975) and its phylozoogeography are considered. The significance of T. glacialis is reviewed, particularly from the viewpoint of the possible implications of parthenogenesis (and occasional-male production) for the Quaternary history of the genus, and for the use of the species in palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. It is suggested that the Pleistocene fossil occurrence of I: glacialis in modern temperate latitudes is a robust indicator of mean summer temperatures of 6 degrees C.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.