Special condition wind power forecasting based on Gaussian process and similar historical data

Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.

Overview of laser-driven generation of electron–positron beams

Electron–positron (e–p) plasmas are widely thought to be emitted, in the form of ultra-relativistic winds or collimated jets, by some of the most energetic or powerful objects in the Universe, such as black-holes, pulsars, and quasars. These phenomena represent an unmatched astrophysical laboratory to test physics at its limit and, given their immense distance from Earth (some even farther than several billion light years), they also provide a unique window on the very early stages of our Universe. However, due to such gigantic distances, their properties are only inferred from the indirect interpretation of their radiative signatures and from matching numerical models: their generation mechanism and dynamics still pose complicated enigmas to the scientific community. Small-scale reproductions in the laboratory would represent a fundamental step towards a deeper understanding of this exotic state of matter. Here we present recent experimental results concerning the laser-driven production of ultra-relativistic e–p beams. In particular, we focus on the possibility of generating beams that present charge neutrality and that allow for collective effects in their dynamics, necessary ingredients for the testing pair-plasma physics in the laboratory. A brief discussion of the analytical and numerical modelling of the dynamics of these plasmas is also presented in order to provide a summary of the novel plasma physics that can be accessed with these objects. Finally, general considerations on the scalability of laboratory plasmas up to astrophysical scenarios are given.

Optimal design of long-span steel portal frames using fabricated beams

This paper considers the optimal design of fabricated steel beams for long-span portal frames. The design optimisation takes into account ultimate as well as serviceability limit states, adopting deflection limits recommended by the Steel Construction Institute (SCI). Results for three benchmark frames demonstrate the efficiency of the optimisation methodology. A genetic algorithm (GA) was used to optimise the dimensions of the plates used for the columns, rafters and haunches. Discrete decision variables were adopted for the thickness of the steel plates and continuous variables for the breadth and depth of the plates. Strategies were developed to enhance the performance of the GA including solution space reduction and a hybrid initial population half of which is derived using Latin hypercube sampling. The results show that the proposed GA-based optimisation model generates optimal and near-optimal solutions consistently. A parametric study is then conducted on frames of different spans. A significant variation in weight between fabricated and conventional hot-rolled steel portal frames is shown; for a 50 m span frame, a 14–19% saving in weight was achieved. Furthermore, since Universal Beam sections in the UK come from a discrete section library, the results could also provide overall dimensions of other beams that could be more efficient for portal frames. Eurocode 3 was used for illustrative purposes; any alternative code of practice may be used.

Performance assessment of cascade control loopswith non-Gaussian disturbances using entropy information

Cascade control is one of the routinely used control strategies in industrial processes because it can dramatically improve the performance of single-loop control, reducing both the maximum deviation and the integral error of the disturbance response. Currently, many control performance assessment methods of cascade control loops are developed based on the assumption that all the disturbances are subject to Gaussian distribution. However, in the practical condition, several disturbance sources occur in the manipulated variable or the upstream exhibits nonlinear behaviors. In this paper, a general and effective index of the performance assessment of the cascade control system subjected to the unknown disturbance distribution is proposed. Like the minimum variance control (MVC) design, the output variances of the primary and the secondary loops are decomposed into a cascade-invariant and a cascade-dependent term, but the estimated ARMA model for the cascade control loop based on the minimum entropy, instead of the minimum mean squares error, is developed for non-Gaussian disturbances. Unlike the MVC index, an innovative control performance index is given based on the information theory and the minimum entropy criterion. The index is informative and in agreement with the expected control knowledge. To elucidate wide applicability and effectiveness of the minimum entropy cascade control index, a simulation problem and a cascade control case of an oil refinery are applied. The comparison with MVC based cascade control is also included.

Deciphering the performance hints hidden in J. S. Bach’s quaver beams

Bach often beamed his quavers beyond the beat-unit indicated by the time-signature, as if to indicate the way he perceived, phrased or articulated a musical line. In my previous study in 2011 I demonstrated the significance for both performers and editors of critical editions of quaver beaming against a broader background of Bach’s notational practice. In this article, I go one step further and demonstrate that Bach’s quaver beams reflect how Bach responded to his pieces in composition and performance, which sheds light on how he engaged with and perceived his music from motivic to structural levels. This enquiry has never before been pursued thoroughly and it promises to uncover the ideas that guided his notational practice as well as his spontaneous responses to the challenges he faced while writing out his music on paper

High-energy monoenergetic proton beams from two stage acceleration with a slow laser pulse

We present a new regime to generate high-energy quasimonoenergetic proton beams in a "slow-pulse" regime, where the laser group velocity vg<c is reduced by an extended near-critical density plasma. In this regime, for properly matched laser intensity and group velocity, ions initially accelerated by the light sail (LS) mode can be further trapped and reflected by the snowplough potential generated by the laser in the near-critical density plasma. These two acceleration stages are connected by the onset of Rayleigh-Taylor-like (RT) instability. The usual ion energy spectrum broadening by RT instability is controlled and high quality proton beams can be generated. It is shown by multidimensional particle-in-cell simulation that quasimonoenergetic proton beams with energy up to hundreds of MeV can be generated at laser intensities of 1021W/cm².

Strength model for end cover separation failure in RC beams strengthened with near-surface mounted (NSM) FRP strips

As an alternative to externally bonded FRP reinforcement, near-surface mounted (NSM) FRP reinforcement can be used to effectively improve the flexural performance of RC beams. In such FRP strengthened RC beams, end cover separation failure is one of the common failure modes. This failuremode involves the detachment of the NSM FRP reinforcement together with the concrete cover along the level of the tension steel reinforcement. This paper presents a new strength model for end cover separation failure in RC beams strengthened in flexure with NSM FRP strips (i.e. rectangular FRP bars with asectional height-to-thickness ratio not less than 5), which was formulated on the basis of extensive numerical results from a parametric study undertaken using an efficient finite element approach. The proposed strength model consists of an approximate equation for the debonding strain of the FRP reinforcement at the critical cracked section and a conventional section analysis to relate this debondingstrain to the moment acting on the same section (i.e. the debonding strain). Once the debonding strain is known, the load level at end cover separation of an FRP-strengthened RC beam can be easily determined for a given load distribution. Predictions from the proposed strength model are compared with those of two existing strength models of the same type and available test results, which shows that the proposed strength model is in close agreement with test results and is far more accurate than the existing strength models.

Finite element modeling of debonding failures in FRP-strengthened RC beams: A dynamic approach

This paper is concerned with the finite element simulation of debonding failures in FRP-strengthened concrete beams. A key challenge for such simulations is that common solution techniques such as the Newton-Raphson method and the arc-length method often fail to converge. This paper examines the effectiveness of using a dynamic analysis approach in such FE simulations, in which debonding failure is treated as a dynamic problem and solved using an appropriate time integration method. Numerical results are presented to show that an appropriate dynamic approach effectively overcomes the convergence problem and provides accurate predictions of test results.

Improved model for interfacial stresses accounting for the effect of shear deformation in plated beams

A significant increase in strength and performance of reinforced concrete, timber and metal beams may be achieved by adhesively bonding a fibre reinforced polymer composite, or metallic such as steel plate to the tension face of a beam. One of the major failure modes in these plated beams is the debonding of the plate from the original beam in a brittle manner. This is commonly attributed to the interfacial stresses between the adherends whose quantification has led to the development of many analytical solutions over the last two decades. The adherends are subjected to axial, bending and shear deformations. However, most analytical solutions have neglected the effect of shear deformation in adherends. Few solutions consider this effect approximately but are limited to one or two specific loading conditions. This paper presents a more rigorous solution for interfacial stresses in plated beams under an arbitrary loading with the shear deformation of the adherends duly considered in closed form using Timoshenko’s beam theory. The solution is general to linear elastic analysis of prismatic beams of arbitrary cross section under arbitrary loading with a plate of any thickness bonded either symmetrically or asymmetrically with respect to the span of the beam.

Bond behavior of NSM FRP strips between two adjacent cracks in concrete beams: A numerical study

Strengthening RC structures with near-surface mounted (NSM) fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has a number of advantages compared with that with externally bonded (EB) FRP sheets/plates. As with EB FRP, the performance of the bond between NSM FRP and concrete is one of the key factors affecting the behaviour of the strengthened structure. This paper presents a numerical investigation into the behaviour of NSM FRP loaded at its both ends to simulate the NSM FRP-toconcrete bond between two adjacent cracks in RC members. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively clarify the effect of the bondline damage during slip reversal on the ultimate load (bond strength). The results show that the bondline damage has a significant effect on the load-carrying capacity of the NSM FRP-to-concrete bonded interface and should be considered in FE modeling of the interface.

Mitigation of concrete cover separation in frpstrengthened RC beams using FRP U-jackets

Concrete cover separation is a common failure mode of reinforced concrete (RC) beams strengthened with a fibre-reinforced polymer (FRP) plate bonded to the tension face (FRP-plated RC beams). Plate-end FRP U-jackets have previously been explored as a mitigation measure to delay or suppress concrete cover separation, although its effectiveness needs further clarification. The paper presents the first systemic experimental study on the use of FRP U-jackets of different forms for mitigating the concrete cover separation failure. A total of ten full-scale FRP-plated RC beams were tested. The test results show that both the ultimate load and the ductility of the beams were enhanced by the U-jackets. Among the forms of U-jackets explored, those inclined at 45o are the most effective.