Temporal changes in the diet of Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula overwintering at Lough Neagh

Numbers of Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula wintering at Lough Neagh declined dramatically following the winter of 2000/01. The abundance and biomass of benthic macroinvertebrates, their main food source, declined significantly between the winters of 1997/98 and 2010. Therefore, information on recent diet was required to determine if there had been any significant changes before and after the observed declines in numbers of both macroinvertebrates and birds. Here, we used oesophageal content analysis to characterise the contemporary diet of Tufted Ducks at Lough Neagh during 2010-12. Out of 75 shot ducks, only three individuals had prey items in their oesophagi while all four ducks that accidentally drowned in gill nets contained prey items. Oesophageal contents were then compared with data collected during a study conducted in the late 1990s. Contemporary diet of Tufted Ducks was dominated by Asellus aquaticus (48%), but molluscs (14%), grain (13%) and chironomid larvae (11%) were also consumed. Between 1998-99 and 2010-12, the contribution of Asellus aquaticus to the diet significantly decreased while the proportions of chironomid larvae, grain, Gammarus spp. and Mysis spp. increased. Alternative methods of dietary analysis, for example stable isotope analysis, are recommended in future studies of diving duck diet at Lough Neagh.

Limits of Dissent, Perils of Activism: Spaces of Resistance and the New Security Logic

On 26 December 2003 an Israeli activist was shot by the Israeli Army while he was participating in a demonstration organized by Anarchists Against the Wall (AAtW) in the West Bank. This was the first time Israeli Soldiers have deliberately shot live bullets at a Jewish-Israeli activist. This paper is an attempt to understand the set of conditions, the enveloping frameworks, and the new discourses that have made this event, and similar shootings that soon followed, possible. Situating the actions of AAtW within a much wider context of securitization—of identities, movements, and bodies—we examine strategies of resistance which are deployed in highly securitized public spaces. We claim that an unexpected matrix of identity in which abnormality is configured as security threat render the bodies of activists especially precarious. The paper thus provides an account of the new rationales of security technologies and tactics which increasingly govern public spaces.

Three Types of Temporal Perspective: Characterizing Developmental Changes in Temporal Thought

This paper provides an outline of the development of temporal thinking that is underpinned by the idea that temporal cognition shifts from being event dependent to event independent over the preschool period. I distinguish between three different ways in which it may be possible to have a perspective on time: (1) a perspective that is grounded in script-like representations of repeated events; (2) a more sophisticated perspective that brings in an fundamental categorical distinction between events that have already happened and events that are yet to come; and (3) a mature temporal perspective that involves orienting oneself in time using a linear temporal framework, with a grasp of the distinctions between past, present, and future. I propose that, with development, children possess each of these types of perspective in turn, and that only the last of these involves being able to represent time in an event-independent way.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Taking Baby Steps in Molecular Logic-based Computation

Molecular logic-based computation is a broad umbrella covering molecular sensors at its simplest level and logic gate arrays involving steadily increasing levels of parallel and serial integration. The fluorescent PET(photoinduced electron transfer) switching principle remains a loyal servant of this entire field. Applications arise from the convenient operation of molecular information processors in very small spaces.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Building pH Sensors into Paper-based Small-molecular Logic Sys-tems for Very Simple Detection of Edges of Objects

Genetically-engineered bacteria and reactive DNA networks detect edges of objects, as done in our retinas and as also found within computer vision. We now demonstrate that simple molecular logic systems (a combination of a pH sensor, a photo acid generator and a pH buffer spread on paper) without any organization can achieve this relatively complex computational goal with good-fidelity. This causes a jump in the complexity achievable by molecular logic-based computation and extends its applicability. The molecular species involved in light dose-driven 'off-on-off' fluorescence is diverted in the ‘on’ state by proton diffusion from irradiated to unirradiated regions where it escapes a strong quencher, thus visualizing the edge of a mask.

Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments.

Probabilistic logic with independence

This paper investigates probabilistic logics endowed with independence relations. We review propositional probabilistic languages without and with independence. We then consider graph-theoretic representations for propositional probabilistic logic with independence; complexity is analyzed, algorithms are derived, and examples are discussed. Finally, we examine a restricted first-order probabilistic logic that generalizes relational Bayesian networks.

Multi-bubble sonoluminescence: Laboratory curiosity, or real world application?

Sonoluminescence (SL) involves the conversion of mechanical [ultra]sound energy into light. Whilst the phenomenon is invariably inefficient, typically converting just 10^-4 of the incident acoustic energy into photons, it is nonetheless extraordinary, as the resultant energy density of the emergent photons exceeds that of the ultrasonic driving field by a factor of some 10 ¹². Sonoluminescence has specific [as yet untapped] advantages in that it can be effected at remote locations in an essentially wireless format. The only [usual] requirement is energy transduction via the violent oscillation of microscopic bubbles within the propagating medium. The dependence of sonoluminescent output on the generating sound field's parameters, such as pulse duration, duty cycle, and position within the field, have been observed and measured previously, and several relevant aspects are discussed presently. We also extrapolate the logic from a recently published analysis relating to the ensuing dynamics of bubble 'clouds' that have been stimulated by ultrasound. Here, the intention was to develop a relevant [yet computationally simplistic] model that captured the essential physical qualities expected from real sonoluminescent microbubble clouds. We focused on the inferred temporal characteristics of SL light output from a population of such bubbles, subjected to intermediate [0.5-2MPa] ultrasonic pressures. Finally, whilst direct applications for sonoluminescent light output are thought unlikely in the main, we proceed to frame the state-of-the- art against several presently existing technologies that could form adjunct approaches with distinct potential for enhancing present sonoluminescent light output that may prove useful in real world [biomedical] applications.

A comparison of merging operators in possibilistic logic.

In this paper, we compare merging operators in possibilistic logic. We rst propose an approach to evaluating the discriminating power of a merging operator. After that, we analyze the computational complexity of existing possibilistic merging operators. Finally, we consider the compatibility of possibilistic merging operators with propositional merging operators.