Three Types of Temporal Perspective: Characterizing Developmental Changes in Temporal Thought

This paper provides an outline of the development of temporal thinking that is underpinned by the idea that temporal cognition shifts from being event dependent to event independent over the preschool period. I distinguish between three different ways in which it may be possible to have a perspective on time: (1) a perspective that is grounded in script-like representations of repeated events; (2) a more sophisticated perspective that brings in an fundamental categorical distinction between events that have already happened and events that are yet to come; and (3) a mature temporal perspective that involves orienting oneself in time using a linear temporal framework, with a grasp of the distinctions between past, present, and future. I propose that, with development, children possess each of these types of perspective in turn, and that only the last of these involves being able to represent time in an event-independent way.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Cognitive amplify-and-forward relay networks with beamforming under primary user power constraint over Nakagami-m fading channels

In this paper, we analyze the performance of cognitive amplify-and-forward (AF) relay networks with beamforming under the peak interference power constraint of the primary user (PU). We focus on the scenario that beamforming is applied at the multi-antenna secondary transmitter and receiver. Also, the secondary relay network operates in channel state information-assisted AF mode, and the signals undergo independent Nakagami-m fading. In particular, closed-form expressions for the outage probability and symbol error rate (SER) of the considered network over Nakagami-m fading are presented. More importantly, asymptotic closed-form expressions for the outage probability and SER are derived. These tractable closed-form expressions for the network performance readily enable us to evaluate and examine the impact of network parameters on the system performance. Specifically, the impact of the number of antennas, the fading severity parameters, the channel mean powers, and the peak interference power is addressed. The asymptotic analysis manifests that the peak interference power constraint imposed on the secondary relay network has no effect on the diversity gain. However, the coding gain is affected by the fading parameters of the links from the primary receiver to the secondary relay network

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Generalized Selection Combining for Cognitive Relay Networks over Nakagami-m Fading

We consider transmit antenna selection with receive generalized selection combining (TAS/GSC) for cognitive decodeand-forward (DF) relaying in Nakagami-m fading channels. In an effort to assess the performance, the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the endto-end SNR are derived using the moment generating function, from which new exact closed-form expressions for the outage probability and the symbol error rate are derived. We then derive a new closed-form expression for the ergodic capacity. More importantly, by deriving the asymptotic expressions for the outage probability and the symbol error rate, as well as the high SNR approximations of the ergodic capacity, we establish new design insights under the two distinct constraint scenarios: 1) proportional interference power constraint, and 2) fixed interference power constraint. Several pivotal conclusions are reached. For the first scenario, the full diversity order of the
outage probability and the symbol error rate is achieved, and the high SNR slope of the ergodic capacity is 1/2. For the second scenario, the diversity order of the outage probability and the symbol error rate is zero with error floors, and the high SNR slope of the ergodic capacity is zero with capacity ceiling.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Disentangling the Harrisson Archive to Interpret the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Vertebrate Remains at Niah Caves, Sarawak

During the 1950s and 1960s, excavations by the Sarawak Museum at Niah Cave in northwest Borneo produced an enormous archive of records and artefacts, including in excess of 750,000 macro- and micro-vertebrate remains. The excellent state of preservation of the animal bone, dating from the Late Pleistocene (c. 40 kya) to as recently as c. 500 years ago had the potential to provide unparalleled zooarchaeological information about early hunter-gatherer resource procurement, temporal changes in subsistence patterning, and the impact of peoples on the local and regional environment in Island Southeast Asia. However, the coarse-grained methods of excavation employed during the original investigations and the sheer scale of the archaeological record and bone assemblages dissuaded many researchers from attempting to tackle the Niah archives. This paper outlines how important information on the nature of the archaeological record at Niah has now finally been extracted from the archive using a combination of zooarchaeological analysis and reference to the extensive archaeological records from the site. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fusion of Static and Temporal Information for Threat Evaluation in Sensor Networks

In many CCTV and sensor network based intelligent surveillance systems, a number of attributes or criteria are used to individually evaluate the degree of potential threat of a suspect. The outcomes for these attributes are in general from analytical algorithms where data are often pervaded with uncertainty and incompleteness. As a result, such individual threat evaluations are often inconsistent, and individual evaluations can change as time elapses. Therefore, integrating heterogeneous threat evaluations with temporal influence to obtain a better overall evaluation is a challenging issue. So far, this issue has rarely be considered by existing event reasoning frameworks under uncertainty in sensor network based surveillance. In this paper, we first propose a weighted aggregation operator based on a set of principles that constraints the fusion of individual threat evaluations. Then, we propose a method to integrate the temporal influence on threat evaluation changes. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our system with a decision support event modeling framework using an airport security surveillance scenario.

A spatio-temporal contrast of the predatory impact of an invasive freshwater crustacean

Aim: Impacts of invasive species may vary across invasion gradients, owing to trait-based sorting of individuals through dispersal: those aggregating at invasion fronts may be more aggressive and voracious. We examine, in the field and laboratory, variation in the predatory impacts of an invasive Ponto-Caspian crustacean Hemimysis anomala G.O. Sars, 1907 at two sites along a spatio-temporal gradient of invasion.

Location: Republic of Ireland.

Methods: We used reciprocal transplant field-deployed mesocosms to compare predation rates of invasion front and well-established H. anomala on natural zooplankton assemblages. In the laboratory, we measured the functional response (relationship between predation rate and prey supply) of H. anomala from both sites, for a per capita mechanistic comparison of predation efficiency. We also assessed prey selectivity of H. anomala in the mesocosm experiments to further compare feeding behaviour. Finally, we used a correlative approach to assess the community impact of H. anomala across sites, including a nearby uninvaded site, by comparing zooplankton diversities and densities.

Results: Invasion front H. anomala had higher predation rates than well-established H. anomala at high in situ zooplankton densities. Invasion front H. anomala also had higher functional responses - in particular showing higher 'attack rates' - indicating a heightened ability to locate and capture prey. Prey selectivity was consistent across the spatio-temporal contrast, with positive selection for cladocerans. Zooplankton diversity and density declined with time since H. anomala invasion, both being maximal at the uninvaded site.

Main conclusions: Our study, for the first time, (1) reveals differences in predatory per capita effects and associated behavioural traits between two sites along a spatio-temporal invasion gradient and (2) shows a negative community-level impact of the invasive H. anomala in natural water bodies. Further spatio-temporal comparisons of predatory per capita effects of invaders are needed to assess the generality of these results.

Temporal Narrowing of Neutrons Produced by High-Intensity Short-Pulse Lasers

The production of neutron beams having short temporal duration is studied using ultraintense laser pulses. Laser-accelerated protons are spectrally filtered using a laser-triggered microlens to produce a short duration neutron pulse via nuclear reactions induced in a converter material (LiF). This produces a similar to 3 ns duration neutron pulse with 10(4) n/MeV/sr/shot at 0.56 m from the laser-irradiated proton source. The large spatial separation between the neutron production and the proton source allows for shielding from the copious and undesirable radiation resulting from the laser-plasma interaction. This neutron pulse compares favorably to the duration of conventional accelerator sources and should scale up with, present and future, higher energy laser facilities to produce brighter and shorter neutron beams for ultrafast probing of dense materials.

Spatial and temporal regulation of the pesticide dieldrin within industrial catchments

The river catchments of south Yorkshire support a very high density of wool processing industries. Dieldrin was once used as a moth proofing agent, as a sheep dip, and as a pesticide to protect wool fleeces during storage and transport, all of which caused pollution of these catchments due to textile processing. Weekly sampling of four of these rivers revealed two classes of dieldrin contamination: the Aire and Calder (the rivers which support very high concentrations of wool processing industries) had higher concentrations (averaging ~3 ng/l) than the Don and Trent (~1 ng/l). The average flux of dieldrin from these rivers into the Humber estuary was 9.8 g/day, with the Aire (of which the Calder is a tributary) and the Trent contributing almost equally, with a smaller contribution from the Don. The Trent has the highest average flow, explaining its large contribution to dieldrin flux. Less detailed sampling of rivers from the north Humber catchment which drain predominantly rural areas had dieldrin concentrations similar to the heavily industrialized southern catchment rivers. This suggests that dieldrin from agronomic and domestic usage may be more persistent than the pollution caused by textile processing industries. Evidence is presented to suggest that the principle dieldrin sources to the Humber catchments are sewage treatment plants, and that the dieldrin sources are in rapid equilibrium with the water column. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Temporal and spatial patterns in α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane concentrations in industrially contaminated rivers

Fluxes of HCH isomers α- and γ-HCH dynamics were determined in four industrial U.K. rivers feeding the North Sea. Sampling was conducted weekly basis over a 2-year period. This was complemented by discrete studies of events where two hourly sampling periods were used to investigate the fine time scale dynamics of fluxes. Two intensively industrialized rivers had average isomer concentrations of ~20 ng L^-1 for both isomers, while average concentrations in the two less industrialized rivers ranged between 1.5 and 5.0 ng L^-1. α-HCH concentrations showed no strong temporal patterns on any river, which contrasts with γ-HCH levels that increased considerably during late summer/early autumn following sustained periods of low river flow. Sampling during high river flow events on rivers with differing HCH pollution histories both showed the same dynamics in HCH isomer concentrations. γ-HCH concentrations decreased 4-fold during events while α-HCH-concentrations stayed constant. The increases in γ-HCH concentrations under low flow conditions and the rapid dilution of this isomer during events indicate that γ-HCH has current inputs to these river systems. It was calculated that these four rivers export 30.8 kg yr^-1 of γ-HCH and 14.8 kg yr^-1 of α-HCH to the North Sea.