An Extended Event Reasoning Framework for Decision Support under Uncertainty

To provide in-time reactions to a large volume of surveil- lance data, uncertainty-enabled event reasoning frameworks for CCTV and sensor based intelligent surveillance system have been integrated to model and infer events of interest. However, most of the existing works do not consider decision making under uncertainty which is important for surveillance operators. In this paper, we extend an event reasoning framework for decision support, which enables our framework to predict, rank and alarm threats from multiple heterogeneous sources.

An Adaptive Machine Learning Decision System for Flexible Predictive Maintenance

Process monitoring and Predictive Maintenance (PdM) are gaining increasing attention in most manufacturing environments as a means of reducing maintenance related costs and downtime. This is especially true in industries that are data intensive such as semiconductor manufacturing. In this paper an adaptive PdM based flexible maintenance scheduling decision support system, which pays particular attention to associated opportunity and risk costs, is presented. The proposed system, which employs Machine Learning and regularized regression methods, exploits new information as it becomes available from newly processed components to refine remaining useful life estimates and associated costs and risks. The system has been validated on a real industrial dataset related to an Ion Beam Etching process for semiconductor manufacturing.

Impact of tooth replacement on the nutritional status of partially dentate elders

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the impact of two different tooth replacement strategies on the nutritional status of partially dentate older patients. Nutritional status was measured using the full version of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and the short form of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A randomised controlled clinical trial was conducted (Trial Registration no. ISRCTN26302774). Partially dentate patients aged 65 years and older were recruited and randomly allocated to the two different treatment groups: the removable partial dentures (RPD) group and the shortened dental arch (SDA) group. Nutritional status was measured using the MNA and MNA-SF administered at baseline and 1, 6 and 12 months after treatment intervention by a research nurse blinded to the treatment group allocation of all participants.

RESULTS: Data collected using the full version of the MNA showed significant improvements in mean MNA scores over the length of the study (p < 0.05). For the entire patient group, there was a mean increase of 0.15 points at 6 months and a further increase of 0.19 points at 12 months. These increases were similar within the treatment groups (p > 0.05). For MNA-SF, the analysis showed that there were no significant differences recorded over the data collection points after treatment intervention (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Tooth replacement using conventional and functionally orientated treatment for the partially dentate elderly showed significant improvements in MNA score 12 months after intervention.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Prosthodontic rehabilitation may play an important role in the nutritional status of partially dentate elders.

Comparison of functionally orientated tooth replacement and removable partial dentures on the nutritional status of partially dentate older patients: a randomised controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to conduct a randomised controlled clinical trial (RCT) of partially dentate older adults comparing functionally orientated treatment based on the SDA concept with conventional treatment using RPDs to replace missing natural teeth. The two treatment strategies were evaluated according to their impact on nutritional status measured using haematological biomarkers.

METHODS: A randomised controlled clinical trial (RCT) was conducted of partially dentate patients aged 65 years and older (Trial Registration no. ISRCTN26302774). Each patient provided haematological samples which were screened for biochemical markers of nutritional status. Each sample was tested in Cork University Hospital for serum Albumin, serum Cholesterol, Ferritin, Folate, Vitamin B12 and 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (Vitamin D).

RESULTS: A mixed model analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) indicated that for Vitamin B12 (p=0.9392), serum Folate (p=0.5827), Ferritin (p=0.6964), Albumin (p=0.8179), Serum Total Cholesterol (p=0.3670) and Vitamin D (p=0.7666) there were no statistically significant differences recorded between the two treatment groups. According to the mixed model analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) for Vitamin D there was a significant difference between levels recorded at post-operative time points after treatment intervention (p=0.0470). There was an increase of 7% in 25-hydroxycholecalciferol levels recorded at 6 months compared to baseline (p=0.0172). There was no further change in recorded levels at 12 months (p=0.6482) and these increases were similar within the two treatment groups (p>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: The only measure which illustrated consistent significant improvements in nutritional status for either group were Vitamin D levels. However no significant difference was recorded between the two treatment groups.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Functionally orientated prosthodontic rehabilitation for partially dentate older patients was no worse than conventional removable partial dentures in terms of impact on nutritional status.

Cost-effectiveness of tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate elderly: a randomized controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing two different tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate older patients, namely partial removable dental prostheses (RDP) and functionally orientated treatment based on the shortened dental arch concept (SDA).

METHODS: Ninety-two partially dentate older patients completed a randomized controlled clinical trial. Patients were randomly allocated to two treatment groups: the RDP group and the SDA group. Treatment effect was measured using impact on oral health-related quality of life (OHrQOL), and the costs involved in providing and maintaining care were recorded for all patients. Patients were followed for 12 months after treatment intervention. All treatment was provided by a single operator.

RESULTS: The total cost of achieving the minimally important clinical difference (MID) in OHrQOL for an average patient in the RDP group was €464.64. For the SDA group, the cost of achieving the MID for an average patient was €252.00. The cost-effectiveness ratio was therefore 1:1.84 in favour of SDA treatment.

CONCLUSION: With an increasingly ageing population, many patients will continue to benefit from removable prostheses to replace their missing natural teeth. From a purely economic standpoint, the results from this analysis suggest that the treatment of partially dentate older adults should be focused on functionally orientated treatment because it is simply more cost-effective.

A preliminary report of the cost-effectiveness of tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate elders

OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of conventional treatment using partial dentures with functionally orientated treatment to replace missing teeth for partially dentate elders using a randomised controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, including the Republic of Ireland, the only publically funded treatment option offered to partially dentate older patients is a removable partial denture. However, evidence suggests that these removable prostheses are unpopular with patients and can potentially increase the risk of further dental disease and subsequent tooth loss.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourty-four partially dentate patients aged 65 years and older were recruited. Patients were randomly assigned to the two treatment arms of the study. The conventional treatment group received removable partial dentures to replace all missing natural teeth. The functionally orientated group was restored to a Shortened Dental Arch (SDA) of 10 occluding contacts using resin-bonded bridgework (RBB). The costs associated with each treatment were recorded. Effectiveness was measured in terms of the impact on oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) using OHIP-14.

RESULTS: Both groups reported improvements in OHRQoL 1 month after completion of treatment. The conventional treatment group required 8.3 clinic visits as compared to 4.4 visits for the functionally orientated group. The mean total treatment time was 183 min 19 s for the conventional group vs. 124 min 8 s for the functionally orientated group. The average cost of treatment for the conventional group was 487.74 Euros compared to 356.20 Euros for the functional group.

CONCLUSIONS: Functionally orientated treatment was more cost-effective than conventional treatment in terms of treatment effect and opportunity costs to the patients' time.

Impact of tooth replacement strategies on the nutritional status of partially-dentate elders

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of tooth replacement on the nutritional status of partially dentate older patients, and, to compare two different tooth replacement strategies; conventional treatment using removable partial dentures and functionally orientated treatment based on the shortened dental arch.

BACKGROUND: Amongst older patients, diet plays a key role in disease prevention, as poor diets have been linked to numerous illnesses. Poor oral health and loss of teeth can have very significant negative effects on dietary intake and nutritional status for elderly patients. There is evidence that good oral health generally, has positive effects on the nutritional intake of older adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A randomised, controlled clinical trial was designed to investigate the impact of tooth replacement on the nutritional status of partially dentate elders. Forty-four patients aged over 65 years completed the trial, with 21 allocated to conventional treatment and 23 allocated to functionally orientated treatment. Nutritional status was accessed at baseline and after treatment using the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and a range of haematological markers.

RESULTS: At baseline, relationships were observed between the number of occluding tooth contacts and some measures of nutritional status. As the number of contacts increased, MNA scores (R = 0.16), in addition to vitamin B12 (R = 0.21), serum folate (R = 0.32) and total lymphocyte count (R = 0.35), also increased. After treatment intervention, the only measure of nutritional status that showed a statistically significant improvement for both treatment groups was MNA score (p = 0.03). No significant between group differences were observed from analysis of the haematological data.

CONCLUSION: In this study, prosthodontic rehabilitation with both conventional treatment and functionally orientated treatment resulted in an improvement in MNA score. Haematological markers did not illustrate a clear picture of improvement in nutritional status for either treatment group.

Caries incidence following tooth replacement for partially dentate elders

Objective: To compare caries incidence following two different tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate older patients; namely functionally orientated treatment according to the principles of the Shortened Dental Arch (SDA) and conventional treatment using Removable Partial Dentures (RPDs). Method:A randomised controlled clinical trial (RCT) was conducted of partially dentate patients aged 65 years and older. Patients were randomly allocated to two different treatment groups: the RPD group and the SDA group. Each member of the RPD group was restored to complete arches with cobalt-chromium RPDs used to replace missing teeth. Patients in the SDA group were restored to a shortened arch of 10 occluding pairs of natural and replacement teeth using adhesive bridgework. All of the operative treatment was completed by a single operator. Caries incidence was measured over a 2-year period following treatment intervention and recorded using the International Caries and Detection System (ICDAS). Result:In total, 89 patients completed the RCT (45 SDAs and 44 RPDs). Patients in the RPD group recorded a significantly higher incidence of new carious lesions (p<0.001) and recurrent carious lesions (p<0.001) compared to the SDA group. A mixed model of covariance (ANCOVA) revealed that treatment group (p<0.001) and co-morbidity (p<0.001) were significant predictors of caries incidence. Conclusion:Two years after provision of prosthodontic treatment there was a significantly higher incidence of new and recurrent caries lesions in subjects provided with RPDs compared with SDA treatment. This will have a significant impact on the ongoing maintenance costs for these two treatment groups.

In and out of home care decisions: The influence of confirmation bias in developing decision supportive reasoning

The aims of this study were to identify the themes Social Workers regard as important in supporting decisions to remove children from, or return them to, the care of their parents. To further elicit underlying hypotheses that are discernible in interpretation of evidence. A case study, comprising a two-part vignette with a questionnaire, recorded demographic information, child welfare attitudes and risk assessments, using scales derived from standardised instruments, was completed by 202 Social Workers in Northern Ireland. There were two manipulated variables, mother’s attitude to removal and child’s attitude to reunification2 years later. In this paper we use data derived from respondents’ qualitative comments explaining their reasoning for in and out of home care decisions. Some 60.9% of respondent’s chose the parental care option at part one, with 94% choosing to have the child remain in foster care at part two. The manipulated variables were found to have no significant statistical effect. However, three underlying hypotheses were found to underpin decisions; (a)child rescue, (b) kinship defence and (c) a hedged position on calculation of risk subject to further assessment. Reasoning strategies utilised by social workers to support their decision making suggest that they tend to selectively interpret information either positively or negatively to support pre-existing underlying hypotheses. This finding is in keeping with the literature on ‘confirmation bias.’ The research further draws attention to the need to incorporate open questions in quantitative studies, to help guard against surface reading of data, which often does not ‘speak for itself.’

An international comparison of legal frameworks for supported and substitute decision-making in mental health services

There have been important recent developments in law, research, policy and practice relating to supporting people with decision-making impairments, in particular when a person’s wishes and preferences are unclear or inaccessible. A driver in this respect is the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD); the implications of the CRPD for policy and professional practices are currently debated. This article reviews and compares four legal frameworks for supported and substitute decision-making for people whose decision-making ability is impaired. In particular, it explores how these frameworks may apply to people with mental health problems. The four jurisdictions are: Ontario, Canada; Victoria, Australia; England and Wales, United Kingdom (UK); and Northern Ireland, UK. Comparisons and contrasts are made in the key areas of: the legal framework for supported and substitute decision-making; the criteria for intervention; the assessment process; the safeguards; and issues in practice. Thus Ontario has developed a relatively comprehensive, progressive and influential legal framework over the past thirty years but there remain concerns about the standardisation of decision-making ability assessments and how the laws work together. In Australia, the Victorian Law Reform Commission (2012) has recommended that the six different types of substitute decision-making under the three laws in that jurisdiction, need to be simplified, and integrated into a spectrum that includes supported decision-making. In England and Wales the Mental Capacity Act 2005 has a complex interface with mental health law. In Northern Ireland it is proposed to introduce a new Mental Capacity (Health, Welfare and Finance) Bill that will provide a unified structure for all substitute decision-making. The discussion will consider the key strengths and limitations of the approaches in each jurisdiction and identify possible ways that further progress can be made in law, policy and practice.

Regret and adaptive decision making in young children

In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O’Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (2014) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice next time round. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret, and whether it was the experience of this emotion rather than the ability to anticipate it that impacted on decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6-7 were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making.

Approximate credal network updating by linear programming with applications to decision making

Credal nets are probabilistic graphical models which extend Bayesian nets to cope with sets of distributions. An algorithm for approximate credal network updating is presented. The problem in its general formulation is a multilinear optimization task, which can be linearized by an appropriate rule for fixing all the local models apart from those of a single variable. This simple idea can be iterated and quickly leads to accurate inferences. A transformation is also derived to reduce decision making in credal networks based on the maximality criterion to updating. The decision task is proved to have the same complexity of standard inference, being NPPP-complete for general credal nets and NP-complete for polytrees. Similar results are derived for the E-admissibility criterion. Numerical experiments confirm a good performance of the method.