A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Chemistry and Distribution of Daughter Species in the Circumstellar Envelopes of O-Rich AGB Stars

Context. Thanks to the advent of Herschel and ALMA, new high-quality observations of molecules present in the circumstellar envelopes of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars are being reported that reveal large differences from the existing chemical models. New molecular data and more comprehensive models of the chemistry in circumstellar envelopes are now available.
Aims: The aims are to determine and study the important formation and destruction pathways in the envelopes of O-rich AGB stars and to provide more reliable predictions of abundances, column densities, and radial distributions for potentially detectable species with physical conditions applicable to the envelope surrounding IK Tau.
Methods: We use a large gas-phase chemical model of an AGB envelope including the effects of CO and N2 self-shielding in a spherical geometry and a newly compiled list of inner-circumstellar envelope parent species derived from detailed modeling and observations. We trace the dominant chemistry in the expanding envelope and investigate the chemistry as a probe for the physics of the AGB phase by studying variations of abundances with mass-loss rates and expansion velocities.
Results: We find a pattern of daughter molecules forming from the photodissociation products of parent species with contributions from ion-neutral abstraction and dissociative recombination. The chemistry in the outer zones differs from that in traditional PDRs in that photoionization of daughter species plays a significant role. With the proper treatment of self-shielding, the N → N2 and C+→ CO transitions are shifted outward by factors of 7 and 2, respectively, compared with earlier models. An upper limit on the abundance of CH4 as a parent species of (≲2.5 × 10-6 with respect to H2) is found for IK Tau, and several potentially observable molecules with relatively simple chemical links to other parent species are determined. The assumed stellar mass-loss rate, in particular, has an impact on the calculated abundances of cations and the peak-abundance radius of both cations and neutrals: as the mass-loss rate increases, the peak abundance of cations generally decreases and the peak-abundance radius of all species moves outwards. The effects of varying the envelope expansion velocity and cosmic-ray ionization rate are not as significant.

Predicting axial velocity profiles within a diffusing marine propeller jet

A full understanding of the hydrodynamic processes within the jet produced by a manoeuvring ship’s propeller is essential in the development and maintenance of ports, docks and harbours. In this study the predominant axial velocity component of a diffusing propeller jet was studied. The flow fields formed by four propellers, each operating at four power levels (speeds of rotation), were investigated under bollard pull conditions within a large free surface tank using Laser Doppler Anemometry. Comparison were made to existing methodologies by which a prediction of the magnitudes of the axial velocity can be made, and where deficient modifications to the methodologies have been developed. The jets were found to produce a maximum axial velocity along the initial efflux plane at a location near the blade mid-span. The position and magnitude of the axial velocity was seen to decrease as the jet entrained more flow and transitioned from the zone of flow establishment into the zone of established flow.

Hα Line Profile Asymmetries and the Chromospheric Flare Velocity Field

The asymmetries observed in the line profiles of solar flares can provide important diagnostics of the properties and dynamics of the flaring atmosphere. In this paper the evolution of the Hα and Ca ii λ8542 lines are studied using high spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution ground-based observations of an M1.1 flare obtained with the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope. The temporal evolution of the Hα line profiles from the flare kernel shows excess emission in the red wing (red asymmetry) before flare maximum and excess in the blue wing (blue asymmetry) after maximum. However, the Ca ii λ8542 line does not follow the same pattern, showing only a weak red asymmetry during the flare. RADYN simulations are used to synthesize spectral line profiles for the flaring atmosphere, and good agreement is found with the observations. We show that the red asymmetry observed in Hα is not necessarily associated with plasma downflows, and the blue asymmetry may not be related to plasma upflows. Indeed, we conclude that the steep velocity gradients in the flaring chromosphere modify the wavelength of the central reversal in the Hα line profile. The shift in the wavelength of maximum opacity to shorter and longer wavelengths generates the red and blue asymmetries, respectively.

Measuring the shape of degree distributions

Degree distribution is a fundamental property of networks. While mean degree provides a standard measure of scale, there are several commonly used shape measures. Widespread use of a single shape measure would enable comparisons between networks and facilitate investigations about the relationship between degree distribution properties and other network features. This paper describes five candidate measures of heterogeneity and recommends the Gini coefficient. It has theoretical advantages over many of the previously proposed measures, is meaningful for the broad range of distribution shapes seen in different types of networks, and has several accessible interpretations. While this paper focusses on degree, the distribution of other node based network properties could also be described with Gini coefficients.