Bandwidth selection by cross-validation for forecasting long memory financial time series

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of sample forecasting properties are proposed. These procedures are used for the choice of bandwidth and subsequent model selection. Simulation evidence is presented that demonstrates the advantage of the proposed new methodology.

Development and validation of Fluid Structure Interaction Methods for an Oscillating Wave Surge Converter

The term fatigue loads on the Oyster Oscillating Wave Surge Converter (OWSC) is used to describe hydrostatic loads due to water surface elevation with quasi-static changes of state. Therefore a procedure to implement hydrostatic pressure distributions into finite element analysis of the structure is desired. Currently available experimental methods enable one to measure time variant water surface elevation at discrete locations either on or around the body of the scale model during tank tests. This paper discusses the development of a finite element analysis procedure to implement time variant, spatially distributed hydrostatic pressure derived from discretely measured water surface elevation. The developed method can process differently resolved (temporal and spatial) input data and approximate the elevation over the flap faces with user defined properties. The structural loads, namely the forces and moments on the body can then be investigated by post processing the numerical results. This method offers the possibility to process surface elevation or hydrostatic pressure data from computational fluid dynamics simulations and can thus be seen as a first step to a fluid-structure interaction model.

Validation study to compare effects of processing protocols on measured N (ε)-(carboxymethyl)lysine and N (ε)-(carboxyethyl)lysine in blood

Epidemiological studies show that elevated plasma levels of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are associated with diabetes, kidney disease, and heart disease. Thus AGEs have been used as disease progression markers. However, the effects of variations in biological sample processing procedures on the level of AGEs in plasma/serum samples have not been investigated. The objective of this investigation was to assess the effect of variations in blood sample collection on measured N (ε)-(carboxymethyl)lysine (CML), the best characterised AGE, and its homolog, N (ε)-(carboxyethyl)lysine (CEL). The investigation examined the effect on CML and CEL of different blood collection tubes, inclusion of a stabilising cocktail, effect of freeze thaw cycles, different storage times and temperatures, and effects of delaying centrifugation on a pooled sample from healthy volunteers. CML and CEL were measured in extracted samples by ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Median CML and CEL ranged from 0.132 to 0.140 mM/M lys and from 0.053 to 0.060 mM/M lys, respectively. No significant difference was shown CML or CEL in plasma/serum samples. Therefore samples collected as part of epidemiological studies that do not undergo specific sample treatment at collection are suitable for measuring CML and CEL.

The validation of Fibit ZipTM physical activity monitor as a measure of free-living physical activity

BACKGROUND: The new generation of activity monitors allow users to upload their data to the internet and review progress. The aim of this study is to validate the Fitbit Zip as a measure of free-living physical activity.

FINDINGS: Participants wore a Fitbit Zip, ActiGraph GT3X accelerometer and a Yamax CW700 pedometer for seven days. Participants were asked their opinion on the utility of the Fitbit Zip. Validity was assessed by comparing the output using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients, Wilcoxon signed rank tests and Bland-Altman plots. 59.5% (25/47) of the cohort were female. There was a high correlation in steps/day between the Fitbit Zip and the two reference devices (r = 0.91, p < 0.001). No statistically significant difference between the Fitbit and Yamax steps/day was observed (Median (IQR) 7477 (3597) vs 6774 (3851); p = 0.11). The Fitbit measured significantly more steps/day than the Actigraph (7477 (3597) vs 6774 (3851); p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots revealed no systematic differences between the devices.

CONCLUSIONS: Given the high level of correlation and no apparent systematic biases in the Bland Altman plots, the use of Fitbit Zip as a measure of physical activity. However the Fitbit Zip recorded a significantly higher number of steps per day than the Actigraph.

Next-generation sequencing: a change of paradigm in molecular diagnostic validation

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is beginning to show its full potential for diagnostic and therapeutic applications. In particular, it is enunciating its capacity to contribute to a molecular taxonomy of cancer, to be used as a standard approach for diagnostic mutation detection, and to open new treatment options that are not exclusively organ-specific. If this is the case, how much validation is necessary and what should be the validation strategy, when bringing NGS into the diagnostic/clinical practice? This validation strategy should address key issues such as: what is the overall extent of the validation? Should essential indicators of test performance such as sensitivity of specificity be calculated for every target or sample type? Should bioinformatic interpretation approaches be validated with the same rigour? What is a competitive clinical turnaround time for a NGS-based test, and when does it become a cost-effective testing proposition? While we address these and other related topics in this commentary, we also suggest that a single set of international guidelines for the validation and use of NGS technology in routine diagnostics may allow us all to make a much more effective use of resources.

Validation of the completeness and accuracy of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry

Background: It has been suggested that inaccuracies in cancer registries are distorting UK survival statistics. This study compared the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) database of living patients, with independent data held by Northern Ireland's General Practitioners (GPs) to compare and validate the recorded diagnoses and dates held by the registry. 

Methods: All 387 GP practice managers were invited to participate. 100 practices (25.84%) responded. Comparisons were made for 17,102 patients, equivalent to 29.08% of the living patients (58,798) extracted from the NICR between 1993 and 2010. 

Results: There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) between the responding and nonresponding GP patient profiles for age, marital status or deprivation score. However, the responding GPs included more female patients (p = 0.02). NICR data accuracy was high, 0.08% of GP cancer patients (n = 15) were not included in registry records and 0.02% (n = 2) had a diagnosis date which varied more than 2 weeks from GP records (3 weeks and 5 months). The NICR had recorded two different tumour types and three different tumour statuses (benign vs. malignant) to the GPs. 

Conclusion: This comparison demonstrates a high level of accuracy within the NICR and that the survival statistics based on this data can be relied upon.

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Digital slide viewing for primary reporting in gastrointestinal pathology: a validation study

Despite the increasing availability of digital slide viewing, and numerous advantages associated with its application, a lack of quality validation studies is amongst the reasons for poor uptake in routine practice. This study evaluated primary digital pathology reporting in the setting of routine subspecialist gastrointestinal pathology, commonplace in most tissue pathology laboratories and representing one of the highest volume specialties in most laboratories. Individual digital and glass slide diagnoses were compared amongst three pathologists reporting in a gastrointestinal subspecialty team, in a prospective series of 100 consecutive diagnostic cases from routine practice in a large teaching hospital laboratory. The study included a washout period of at least 6 months. Discordant diagnoses were classified, and the study evaluated against recent College of American Pathologists (CAP) recommendations for evaluating digital pathology systems for diagnostic use. The study design met all 12 of the CAP recommendations. The 100 study cases generated 300 pairs of diagnoses, comprising 100 glass slide diagnoses and 100 digital diagnoses from each of the three study pathologists. 286 of 300 pairs of diagnoses were concordant, representing intraobserver concordance of 95.3 %, broadly comparable to rates previously published in this field. In ten of the 14 discordant pairs, the glass slide diagnosis was favoured; in four cases, the digital diagnosis was favoured, but importantly, the 14 discordant intraobserver diagnoses were considered to be of minor clinical significance. Interobserver, or viewing modality independent, concordance was found in 94 of the total of 100 study cases, providing a comparable baseline discordance rate expected in any second viewing of pathology material. These overall results support the safe use of digital pathology in primary diagnostic reporting in this setting

Maintaining a grasp on reality – Is our validation and design effort focused in the same direction?

This article examines the influence on the engineering design process of the primary objective of validation, whether it is proving a model, a technology or a product. Through the examination of a number of stiffened panel case studies, the relationships between simulation, validation, design and the final product are established and discussed. The work demonstrates the complex interactions between the original (or anticipated) design model, the analysis model, the validation activities and the product in service. The outcome shows clearly some unintended consequences. High fidelity validation test simulations require a different set of detailed parameters to accurately capture behaviour. By doing so, there is a divergence from the original computer-aided design model, intrinsically limiting the value of the validation with respect to the product. This work represents a shift from the traditional perspective of encapsulating and controlling errors between simulation and experimental test to consideration of the wider design-test process. Specifically, it is a reflection on the implications of how models are built and validated, and the effect on results and understanding of structural behaviour. This article then identifies key checkpoints in the design process and how these should be used to update the computer-aided design system parameters for a design. This work strikes at a fundamental challenge in understanding the interaction between design, certification and operation of any complex system.