Food web indicators under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive: From complexity to simplicity?

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that European Union Member States achieve "Good Environmental Status" (GES) in respect of 11 Descriptors of the marine environment by 2020. Of those, Descriptor 4, which focuses on marine food webs, is perhaps the most challenging to implement since the identification of simple indicators able to assess the health of highly dynamic and complex interactions is difficult. Here, we present the proposed food web criteria/indicators and analyse their theoretical background and applicability in order to highlight both the current knowledge gaps and the difficulties associated with the assessment of GES. We conclude that the existing suite of indicators gives variable focus to the three important food web properties: structure, functioning and dynamics, and more emphasis should be given to the latter two and the general principles that relate these three properties. The development of food web indicators should be directed towards more integrative and process-based indicators with an emphasis on their responsiveness to multiple anthropogenic pressures. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rigorous Specification and Low-Latency Implementation of Technical Market Indicators

Technical market indicators are tools used by technical an- alysts to understand trends in trading markets. Technical (market) indicators are often calculated in real-time, as trading progresses. This paper presents a mathematically- founded framework for calculating technical indicators. Our framework consists of a domain specific language for the un- ambiguous specification of technical indicators, and a run- time system based on Click, for computing the indicators. We argue that our solution enhances the ease of program- ming due to aligning our domain-specific language to the mathematical description of technical indicators, and that it enables executing programs in kernel space for decreased latency, without exposing the system to users’ programming errors.

Arcellacea (Testate Amoebae) as Bio-indicators of Road Salt Contamination in Lakes

Winter deicing operations occur extensively in mid- to high-latitude metropolitan regions around the world and result in a significant reduction in road accidents. Deicing salts can, however, pose a major threat to water quality and aquatic organisms. In this paper we examine the utility of Arcellacea (testate amoebae) for monitoring lakes that have become contaminated by winter deicing salts, particularly sodium chloride. We analysed 50 sediment samples and salt-related water-property variables (chloride concentrations; conductivity) from 15 lakes in the Greater Toronto Area and adjacent areas of southern Ontario, Canada. The sampled lakes included lakes in proximity to major highways and suburban roads, and control lakes in forested settings away from road influences. Samples from the most contaminated lakes, with chloride concentrations in excess of 400 mg/l and conductivities of >800 μS/cm, were dominated by species typically found in brackish and/or inhospitable lake environments and by lower faunal diversities (lowest Shannon Diversity Index values) than samples with lower readings. Q-R-mode cluster analysis and Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) resulted in the recognition of four assemblage groupings. These reflect varying levels of salt contamination in the study lakes, along with other local influences, including nutrient loading. The response to nutrients can, however, be isolated if the planktic eutrophic indicator species Cucurbitella tricuspis is removed from the counts. The findings show that the group have considerable potential for biomonitoring in salt-contaminated lakes, and through application to lake sediment cores, may provide significant insights into long-term benthic community health, which is integral for remedial efforts.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.

External validation of the 2008 Framingham cardiovascular risk equation for CHD and stroke events in a European population of middle-aged men. The PRIME study

To test the applicability of the sex-specific 2008 Framingham general cardiovascular risk equation for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in European middle-aged men from Ireland and France.

Multiple Biomarkers for the prediction of ischemic stroke: the PRIME study

Objective: To simultaneously evaluate 14 biomarkers from distinct biological pathways for risk prediction of ischemic stroke, including biomarkers of hemostasis, inflammation, and endothelial activation as well as chemokines and adipocytokines.
Methods and Results: The Prospective Epidemiological Study on Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) is a cohort of 9771 healthy men 50 to 59 years of age who were followed up over 10 years. In a nested case–control study, 95 ischemic stroke cases were matched with 190 controls. After multivariable adjustment for traditional risk factors, fibrinogen (odds ratio [OR], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–2.28), E-selectin (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.06–2.93), interferon-γ-inducible-protein-10 (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.06–2.78), resistin (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.30–6.27), and total adiponectin (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.04–3.19) were significantly associated with ischemic stroke. Adding E-selectin and resistin to a traditional risk factor model significantly increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve from 0.679 (95% CI, 0.612–0.745) to 0.785 and 0.788, respectively, and yielded a categorical net reclassification improvement of 29.9% (P=0.001) and 28.4% (P=0.002), respectively. Their simultaneous inclusion in the traditional risk factor model increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve to 0.824 (95% CI, 0.770–0.877) and resulted in an net reclassification improvement of 41.4% (P<0.001). Results were confirmed when using continuous net reclassification improvement.
Conclusion: Among multiple biomarkers from distinct biological pathways, E-selectin and resistin provided incremental and additive value to traditional risk factors in predicting ischemic stroke.

Anthropometric within-country Inequality and the Estimation of Skill Premia with Anthropometric Indicators

Recently, a method to measure inequality has been proposed that is based on an- thropometric indicators. Baten (1999, 2000) argued that the coefficient of variation of human stature (henceforth ‘CV’) is correlated with overall inequality in a society, and that it can be used as indicator, especially where income inequality measures are lack- ing. This correlation has been confirmed in further analyses, for example by Pradhan et al. (2003), Moradi and Baten (2005), Sunder (2003), Guntupalli and Baten (2006), Blum (2010a), van Zanden et al. (2010), see also Figure 1 and Table 1. The idea is that average height reflects nutritional conditions during early childhood and youth. Since wealthier people have better access to food, shelter and medical resources, they tend to be taller than the poorer part of the population. Hence, the variation of height of a cer- tain cohort may be indicative of income distribution during the decade of their birth. The aim of this study is firstly to provide an overview of different forms of within- country height inequality. Previous studies on the aspects of height inequality are re- viewed. Inequalities between ethnic groups, gender, inhabitants of different regions and income groups are discussed. In the two final sections, we compare height CVs of anthropological inequality with another indicator of inequality, namely skill premia. We also present estimates of skill premia for a set of countries and decades for which “height CVs”, as they will be called in the following, are available.

Regional variation in five indicators of health in early childhood: a cohort study

Background Persistent and marked differences in adult morbidity and mortality between regions in the United Kingdom (UK) are often referred to as the north-south gradient (or divide) and the Scottish effect, and are only partly explained by adult levels of socioeconomic status (SES) or risk factors which suggests variation arising earlier in life. The aim of the current study was to examine regional variations in five health indicators in children in England and Scotland at birth and three years of age.
Methods Respondents were 10,500 biological Caucasian mothers of singleton children recruited to the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Outcome variables were: gestational age and weight at birth, and height, body mass index (BMI), and externalising behaviour at age three. Region/Country was categorised as: South (reference), Midlands, North, and Scotland. Respondents provided information on child, maternal, household, and socioeconomic characteristics when the cohort infant/child was aged nine months and again when aged three years. 
Results There were no significant regional variations for gestational age or birthweight. However, at age three there was a north-south gradient for externalising behaviour and a north-south divide in BMI which attenuated on adjustment. However, a north-south divide in height was not fully explained by the adjusted model. There was also evidence of a ‘Midlands effect’, with increased likelihoods of shorter stature and behaviour problems. Results showed a Scottish effect for height and BMI in the unadjusted models, and height in the adjusted model. However, Scottish children were less likely to show behaviour problems in crude and adjusted models. 
Conclusions Findings indicated no marked regional differences in children at birth, but by age three some regional health differences were evident, and though not distinct north-south gradients or Scottish effects, are evidence of health inequalities appearing at an early age and dependent on geographic location.

Key performance indicators – A new approach for specifying concrete and assessing state of health of concrete structure

The focus of this paper is to outline a method for consolidating and implementing the work on performance-based specification and testing. First part of the paper will review the mathematical significance of the variables used in common service life models. The aim is to identify a set of significant variables that influence the ingress of chloride ions into concrete. These variables are termed as Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s). This will also help to reduce the complexity of some of the service life models and make them more appealing for practicing engineers. The second part of the paper presents a plan for developing a database based on these KPI’s so that relationships can then be drawn between common concrete mix parameters and KPI’s. This will assist designers in specifying a concrete with adequate performance for a particular environment. This, collectively, is referred to as the KPI based approach and the concluding remarks will outline how the authors envisage the KPI theory to relate to performance assessment and monitoring.